With the little amount of mid-week trading, I've combined my sports trading results for the full week into one post.
This week marked my 100th trade since I started the SportsTraydor blog. Where has that time gone? The 100th trade was between Leicester City and Burnley on Saturday afternoon.
I know for sure that sports trading isn't a "get rich quick!" scheme. Some may win big on the odd occasion and get lucky, but for me and my style, I'm looking for a slow but a long term and consistent return. Some may call this boring!
If I can return a consistent 15% ROI on my bank, month on month, over a year, I would be thrilled. Imagine that compounded! When I used to trade the financial markets (in my spare time), I would have dreamed of 15% returns, month on month — still, some way to go on this journey to see how my returns will look in the long term.
I'm regularly looking for ways to find comparisons between the financial markets and the sports trading exchanges, especially when it comes to risk vs reward. Unlike the financial markets, sports trading usually has to deal with time decay which adds a challenge when it comes to finding my entry and exit points.
While looking back at my trading records, I'm noticing that if I was to enter a little later in the second half of the football matches, I might obtain more value. On the flip side to that, there's time's I'll miss out on some winning trades, depending on the scenario, and feel like I've left money on the table. A mindset matter to overcome, but I'm still working on it. At the same time, don't want to disrupt what I've returned since August.
So how did my trading go this week?
France v Turkey
The score was still 0-0 late into the second half of this Euro 2020 qualifier. After reviewing the stats, I calculated how much I was willing to risk and then opposed the current score.
Giroud scored for France in the 76th minute. As a result of this, I started the week off with a winning trade. Turkey went on to score in the 82nd minute with the game ending 1-1.
No further mid-week trades.
Clermont v Rodez
French Ligue 2
At half-time, the score was level at 0-0. Looking at the in-play details and the pre-match stat that Rodez has not had a clean sheet in their last nine games, was encouraging so I entered a trade expecting a goal.
Rodez, the underdog, to my surprise, took the lead in the 77th minute. A winning trade to start the weekend.
Tranmere v Southend
English League 1
A game I profiled earlier in the day and marked it as one to look at in the second half.
At half time, odds-on favourites Tranmere were losing 0-1 at home. Looking at Southend's form, with a lot of losses away from home and struggling to keep clean sheets, I felt Tranmere would get back into the game. Not only this but another stat I read is that Tranmere has been involved in a lot of games that produce more than 2.5 goals. I decided to enter a trade midway through the second half and oppose the current score.
The goal arrived late in the second half and a winning trade.
Two profitable trades on Friday
Spartak Moscow v Ruben Kazan
Russian Premier League
Kazan has been struggling away from home recently, so I was surprised to see the score was 0-0 at half time. In the first half, there were seven shots on target between the two teams, so the game seemed lively.
Spartak Moscow has not kept a clean sheet in their last 13 games, and Ruben Kazan games seem to be involved in games that produce over 2.5 goals. Surely there was a goal in this game? I opposed the current score.
Well, that didn't go to plan. Surprisingly neither side could score and the game finished 0-0. A losing trade to start the day.
Chelsea v Newcastle
English Premier League
I decided to get involved late in this game when I noticed Chelsea were still level, playing at home, to Newcastle. It was clear that Chelsea was on top in the match, pressing forward to score a winning goal, so I entered a trade, expecting a goal.
The goal arrived in the 73rd minute. Alonso was on the score sheet for Chelsea. A winning trade.
Leicester v Burnley
English Premier League.
This trade was my 100th since I started the SportsTraydor blog.
Late in the second half, the score was level at 1-1. I looked at the stats, as well as listening to the pundits on Sky Sports Soccer Saturday, and I felt another goal was coming. Leicester had 65% of the possession and 8 attempts on goal in the 2nd half. I apposed the current score, expecting at least one more goal before the final whistle.
Goal! Tielemans scored it for Leicester in the 74th minute. My 100th trade was a winning trade!
Bournemouth v Norwich
English Premier League
"This game has goals in it!" - according to the Sky Sports pundits.
While looking at the information available, I was also expecting at least a goal. Bournemouth has not kept a clean sheet in their last six games. Norwich hasn't had a clean sheet in their previous nine games. When I saw it was still 0-0 at half time, I decided to oppose the current score.
Well, that didn't work out. The game finished 0-0. I was annoyed I lost this trade, but I felt I profiled the game well. The stats and information I had available leaned towards a goal in this game. We work with probabilities in trading - but nothing is 100% guaranteed, so I have to take this one on the chin.
Ankaragucu v Besiktas
Turkish Super Lig
Oh, the outcome of this trade was annoying.
The team streaks presented facts such as Ankaragucu unable to keep a clean sheet in their last four games, games have been producing over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
At half time it was 0-0. Like with the Bournemouth v Norwich game, I felt there would be a goal in the second half.
After 74 mins Ankaragucu had a red card. Besiktas the pre-match odds on favourites had an extra man for the last 15 minutes of the game - but they couldn't score. The game finished 0-0, so I lost this trade.
This one hurt as it was my last trade on a Saturday. It also meant I ended Saturday with a negative P&L. Sometimes I consider finding more games to trade to make up for the loss, but I walked away from my laptop and made sure not to force any trades. I'm not saying being this disciplined was easy though!
Sydney FC v Wellington
It was an early start to my Sunday. While my kids were playing on their iPads and doing some drawing, and my wife was at work, I watched Sydney v Wellington on BT Sport.
Sydney was the pre-match favourites and leading 1-0 at half time, but Wellington has looked promising, and I could see them getting back into the game. I layed the Under 1.5 goals, expecting a goal.
As I walked back into the lounge, stepping over my sleeping dog (I have a Cockapoo) with a fresh cup of coffee in my hand, Wellington scored in the 69th minute just as I had predicted. A winning trade and an excellent way to start Sunday, after a negative day yesterday.
Manchester United v Liverpool
English Premier League.
After some family commitments at lunchtime, I was back home ready to watch the big game of the day. If I'm honest, I wasn't expecting to trade the game, but when I saw United were beating an in-form Liverpool side who usually score, I decided to oppose the current score.
The goal arrived late in the game. I reckon overall it was a goal Liverpool deserved. Man United was, without doubt, the better side in the first half, but Liverpool towards the end were improving, and in fact, they might have got a second near the end as United seemed nervous. My second winning trade of the day and my final trade of the week.
Looking at the P&L, it was a "green" week but to be honest; the numbers are not exactly flattering. I'm sticking to stakes between 1.0 and 1.5% of the bank (give or take) which might be why the returns have been low. I'm going to stay with it for October and then evaluate. Maybe I will increase the stakes, so they are between 2.0 and 2.5% of the bank instead.
The week started with a balance of £558.40.
P&L for the week +£14.50
The balance is now at £572.90. An ROI of 120% since 1-August-19.
120%! Not bad. I can't complain, although for some reason I feel like I'm leaving money on the table based on when I enter and exit a trade.
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.