It was the first weekend of fixtures since the festive holidays and some teams were participating in the 3rd round of the FA Cup. As a fan of football, I must confess I enjoy the FA Cup more than some of the European competitions.
It’s such a historic competition where all teams can envisage lifting the trophy. I realise it doesn't have the glamour it used to possess, and the Premier League clubs rank it lower than finishing in the top 4, but I embrace it. Who wouldn't like to see their team play in the final at Wembley Stadium?
After an excellent start to the new year, this is how my weekend of trading went.
Valladolid v Leganes
I was looking at the statistics between these two sides, and I believed there wasn't going to be many goals. I was presuming the first half will start slow.
In Valladolid's last five games at home, only one of them produced over 1.5 goals in the first half. The rest had one goal or less.
I decided to open a trade backing the Under 2.5 goals market, then plan to exit for a profit as the time progressed and time decay does its thing. If the game is more open than I would like, then I'll exit sooner than I plan to.
Four minutes into the match. Well, that did didn't go to plan. The goal arrived sooner than I expected. The markets overreacted so I chose to wait, let the market settle before I conceded and exit for a loss. While the market's settled down, I immediately went to make a cup of tea and speak with the Wife in the kitchen, which took me no more than five or six minutes (or so I thought).
I then returned to my laptop, preparing to exit the trade after the early goal and take the loss on the chin!
To my horror, another two goals had been scored in the 8th and then the 13th minute! Woah! Three goals in 13 minutes and as a result a 100% loss.
If I was following my trading plan, I "should" have been out after the first goal. I felt sick. I haven't screwed up as severe as this for some time. It was careless of me.
Bordeaux v Le Mans
Coupe de France
Bordeaux was playing at home in the French cup and were clear favourites priced at 1.58. Le Mans was at 6.8.
I chose to "Lay The Draw" midway through the first half with the score still 0-0. I then set myself a stop-loss and exit the trade if there were no goal later in the match. The Valladolid v Leganes trade was fresh in my memory so I was going to stick to my trading plan - and not become occupied with anything else.
The trade worked out. Bordeaux took the lead, so I cashed out for a profit. They went on to win the match 2-0
Seville v Ath. Bilbao
Like with the earlier Valladolid game, the stats were implying this match would also begin slow. In Seville's last five games there have not been over 1.5 goals in the first half. Looking at the Bilbao last five away games, just one had over 1.5 goals in the first half.
Not being scared or put off from the earlier trade in Spain, I opened an order to back the under goal market.
I had to work hard for this trade. A goal was scored after 15 mins then shortly afterwards, monitoring the game, I chose rather than cashing out I would instead remove the liability and let it run.
Because the goal was conceded in the first half, I made only a small profit. A win is a win, though.
Friday didn't go too well after the silly mistake I made earlier. I was always going to struggle to make a profit with that kind of loss. Onto Saturday!
When it comes to trading the FA Cup, I admit I need to be a little more cautious. After all, it’s a cup competition, and recent form and stats go out the window.
I don’t get put off trading cup games, but I understand it doesn’t suit all football traders.
Bristol City v Shrewsbury
FA Cup 3rd Round.
Bristol City is currently in 11th position in the Championship. Shrewsbury is now in 14th position in League One. Recent form for either side hasn't been exceptional but with match odds of 1.84 for Bristol City, playing at home, I considered this had “some” value.
I backed Bristol City from kick-off, looking to lock in a profit should they take the lead. If the score is level at Half-time, I’ll add another order if Bristol City is on top.
Bristol City took the lead in the 30th minute against the run of play to be fair.
I waited for the market to settle before opening a position to cash out. Not a significant return as I only had a 0.5 point stake matched before the goal.
The final result was 1-1. I wasn’t surprised as Shrewsbury played well and were unlucky to go a goal behind.
Reading v Blackpool
FA Cup 3rd Round
Reading is a Championship side playing at home against Blackpool from League One. Blackpool’s away form hasn’t been fabulous, without a win in their last five away games.
I placed an order just after kick-off to back Reading at home and then cash-out if and when they take the lead.
Blackpool took the lead in the first half, but I still believed Reading would get back into this, so I entered the markets again, with another 0.5 point stake. I now have the full 1 point in the trade.
Reading, as I expected equalised in the second half. Rather than cashing out, I removed the liability and then cheered Reading forward to get the win.
I decided to cash out for a small profit when Blackpool retook the lead making it 1-2.
Shortly after I exited the trade Reading pulled level to make it 2-2. In a way, I was kicking myself as leaving the trade as a risk-free trade would mean a nice profit if Reading turned it around, making it 3-2.
They didn’t turn it around, and the match ended 2-2. In hindsight, I was correct (or lucky) to cash out when Blackpool went 1-2 up.
Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday
FA Cup 3rd Round
I chose to get involved in this match not so much because of the pre-match stats but because Brighton at home is not an easy team to play. They're playing some decent football under Graham Potter.
Sheffield Wednesday are just outside the play-offs in the Championship and doing okay. I just believe Brighton will edge this one.
I opened an order and backed Brighton with a 0.5 point stake, looking for them to take the lead.
What can I say? That didn’t work out. Sheffield Wednesday took a lead in the second half. With less than 30 minutes in the game, I decided to cash out for a loss. I thought Brighton might equalise but not win the match with a limited amount of time left.
In the end, I was accurate to cash out for an early, limited loss, as Sheffield Wednesday held onto their lead and knocked the Premier League side out of the FA Cup winning 0-1.
Belenenses v Braga
Braga, the favourites, were away from home. In some matches, when the clear favourites are playing away, it sometimes takes time to get going, take it slow, quieten the home crowd down and be patient. I decided for this match to do some scalping from the start.
Five minutes in and the game was much livelier than I anticipated, so I chose to exit the trade early. I believed there was no need to stay in this trade if the game wasn’t going as I expected. I came out of the trade with a small profit.
Three minutes later, Braga scored. I was pleased I read the match and was flexible in my methods to exit when I saw the game was not going to plan. I was happy with this trade. Not for the small profit I made but the way I managed the trade.
Still monitoring the match, I opened up another trade in the second half to trade the Under goals market. Braga was winning 1-4 away from home so with five goals already I expected the second half to start slow as Braga had wrapped up the win.
That didn’t go to plan. Braga started the second half as they finished the first and scored their fifth goal with their first significant attack.
They went on to thrash Belenenses 1-7!!
Guimaraes v Benfica
In this match, I traded the under goal market and cashed out midway through the first half just moments before Benfica took the lead.
A small win.
I started the blog on 1st August last year, but I don’t trade every day due to holidays, commitments at work and my family, but today I completed 100 trading days since August.
I’ve been tracking this in a chart. It’s a shame the last couple of days ended with a negative return, but overall it's been on an upward curve.
I went to the gym for a 45-minute spinning class this morning. It was hard work, but I felt great afterwards. It helped me get in the right frame of mind for the afternoon and evening of trading. Here’s how it went.
Olympiakos v Panathinaikos
Greece Super League
Olympiakos were clear odds on favourites priced at 1.25 and haven’t lost at home in their last five games. I kept an eye on the match throughout the first half to see if there was an angle for me to enter.
At half time the score, surprising to me, was still 0-0. Looking at the stats, it seemed like it was an open match, so I was expecting a goal.
I layed the under 1.5 goal market during the second half with a plan to remove the liability should there be a goal.
It sort of went to plan. Olympiakos scored in the 74th minute, so I removed my liability but the second goal never arrived, so this trade was a scratch trade.
Gillingham v West ham
FA Cup 3rd Round
West Ham, now under the management of David Moyes, was playing away to Gillingham. I expected West Ham to win the tie, but I believed a Sunday night game, under the floodlights, might start scrappy.
I chose to back the under’s goal market, and as time progressed throughout the first half if there were no goals I'd exit for a profit.
The trade was successful when I exited for a profit midway through the first half when the score still 0-0. It stayed 0-0 at Half-time in fact.
West Ham went on to win the match and progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup
AS Roma v Torino
This game was shown live on Premier Sports. Roma has been impressive at home recently, without a loss in their last five games.
I opened a position backing Roma.
Torino scored just before half-time. I didn't panic and left my trade open to see if Roma would equalise then manage the trade and see if they push on for the win.
The score was still 0-1 in the 70th minute, so I decided to change my approach. I exited the trade for a loss but then opened a new trade Laying under 1.5 goals. The match was open, Roma was pushing for a goal but also leaving gaps, so by opening this trade all I needed was a goal from either side to cover the loss on my earlier trade.
As expected, there was a goal. Torino converted a penalty to make it 0-2. This was enough to cover my loss, so it worked out overall to be a scratch trade.
Friday’s error with the Under 2.5 goal trade in the Valladolid v Leganes match was hard to take, but by Sunday I started to get over it. It was always going to take a little time to recover from that error and stop myself from forcing the trades, simply to cover the loss.
This weekend saw me complete 100 days of trading since I started the blog, so that’s a nice milestone to achieve. Overall, as the chart shows, my football trading is on a steadily upward direction.
Let’s see how the weekend of trading went.
I started the weekend with a balance of £800.46
Balance now stands at £782.20
A negative weekend. I'll park this, forget about it and move forward.
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.