Tuesday night 06-August-19
A lack of midweek league football meant I entered trades in either the domestic cups or European competitions. Like with the opening weekend, I decided to stick with the reduced stakes until there are more games to study and become more confident in my selections.
Portsmouth v Birmingham
This trade was one I'll look back on and criticise myself. It's one to take note of (here in this blog) and learn.
Portsmouth was at home with pre-match odds of 1.75. The markets had Birmingham, who were playing away from home at 5.25.
Birmingham, a Championship side, I felt would be a side high in confidence after there win at the weekend away at Brentford. Portsmouth, playing in a lower league, lost at the weekend. I thought their pre-match odds of 1.75 were too short.
As it was a game in a domestic cup with little prestige, I decided to wait until the match was underway before I entered the market. As it turned out, Portsmouth took a 2-0 lead, and their odds were lower at 1.06/1.07. I felt I could sneak a few ticks profit from the market if Birmingham got a goal back making the scoreline 2-1, not necessarily draw or win the game. I, therefore, opposed Portsmouth and layed them at 1.07 with minimal liability. Well, the trade went against me, as Portsmouth extended their lead to 3-0 early in the second half. After the third goal went in, I cashed out for a loss.
In hindsight, Portsmouth is expected to do well this season. The market makers set this price for a good reason. The stats were not too convincing for Birmingham either. They had slightly more possession, but that was about it. Everything else was in Portsmouth favour. I suppose the only positive to take away from this losing trade is that I entered the market with a small amount of liability but "if" it had worked out, I could have made a decent profit.
I traded a couple of games on Wednesday. Once again, both were cup games.
S. Bratislava v Dundalk
Europa League - Qualifier
S. Bratislava was at 1.42. Dundalk, a team, flying the Irish flag in the Europa League, was priced at 8.00. I wanted to back the home team, Bratislava. I looked at their stats and observed they had won 4 of their last five games at home. With the odds in their favour and satisfactory home form, I backed the home team from the start.
At half time the score was still 0-0. I was tempted to add more money into the market and back Bratislava with a significant stake, but the stats were not impressing me. I decided to leave it alone and stick with my current stake.
As the second half advanced, Bratislava was increasing the pressure. After 70 mins with the score still level at 0-0, they had 56% possession, had ten shots at goal with 2 of them on target. The game seemed to be getting away from Dundalk, so I decided to add a little more into the market and backed Bratislava again.
The goal for Bratislava finally came in the 86th minute to put them 1-0 up. Phew! Better late than never. I cashed out for a profit.
Galatasaray v Akhisarsport
Turkish Super Cup
The odds were heavily in Galatasaray's favour with a price of 1.29. Akhisarsport was at 13.00. The Turkish football season hasn't yet started, but after looking at Galatasaray's from last season, I was confident enough to go in with my usual outlay from the beginning. I backed them at 1.29.
After 30 mins of the game had passed in the first half, the score was still 0-0. Galatasaray's odds were increasing, but I always felt they would take the lead, so I added a little more into the market and backed them again. The goal for Galatasaray came nine minutes later in the 39th minute. As a result, I cashed out for a profit.
A successful Wednesday evening trading sport, which helped overcome the small loss on Tuesday.
A couple of games traded this evening in the Europa Cup.
Feyenoord v Dinamo Tbilisi
Europa League Qualifier
Feyenoord at home was always something I wanted to get involved in against a team of lesser quality. Feyenoord were odds on at 1.38 with Tbilisi at 9.40.
I backed Feyenoord from the start using 50% of my stake. I was planning to enter the market again if the score was level at half-time.
It never got to that as the goal came in the 43rd minute and I cashed out for a profit.
The final result was a comfortable 4-0 win.
Legia Warsaw v Atromitos
Europa League Qualifier
This was a match I entered at half time. The score was 0-0, but odds on favourites, Legia Warsaw, was all over Atromitos in the first 45 mins. I backed Legia Warsaw with 50% of my reduced stake at 1.75, keeping the stakes low because it's a cup game and if I'm honest, I don't have a lot of knowledge on either team.
Legia Warsaw playing at home, with decent stats in their favour, I decided to get involved.
In the end, it wasn't to be. I was hesitant in adding another 50% of my stake so I never increased the amount on Legia. The 2nd half stats for Legia Warsaw were 76%, 13 shots and 7 of those on target but they couldn't score, and the game ended 0-0. I used a strategy that in this scenario, with these kinds of stats suggested I should stay in the trade until the end. Therefore I lost 100% of my reduced stake.
This concludes my midweek trading.
The Bank at the start of this mid-week trading : £274.59
Total P/L for the week +£4.44 profit
Total P/L on the starting bank of £260 +£19.03 (+7.3% to date)
A little frustrated, irritated, upset and all of those feelings because the last trade of the week wiped a sizable sum from the profit. At least it was a positive return albeit peanuts! Once the season is underway, and I can read some form, I’ll be increasing the stake size.
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.