I've had to remind myself that I'm in sports trading for the long term. I can't get demotivated, deflated or angry if I see "red" on screen or have a drawdown. This weekend you'll see I had a few losing trades.
I'm not giving up, despite a rough end to the month, because looking at the bigger picture - September was a good month.
I've started to read "The Compound Effect" by Darren Hardy again! It's an excellent book to remind me how I need to break this all down and not rush things.
No trades placed on Friday.
Saturday wasn't my best days of trading, but I accept that I'll have days like this. I'm not naive to think every day will be a day of green, successful trades. It questions the mindset that's for sure. I can't control the outcome of games, so I have to accept days like this. What I can control is that I stick to my rules, ensure the "probabilities" are in my favour and what will be, will be.
Sheffield United v Liverpool
Liverpool usually scores for fun, and so when I saw they were being held to a goalless scoreline in the second half, I believed there would be a goal. Therefore I opposed the current score and layed Under 0.5 goals. I entered the trade with a clear exit point should the trade go against me.
Well, this was frustrating. The score was still 0-0, and the price decreased to my pre-determined exit point. It was around the 68th minute and sticking with my trading rules I had to exit for a loss. Two minutes later, as I expected, Wijnaldum scored from a Sheffield United error. Typical!
Although I was frustrated, as I expected at least a goal in the game, I was happy I had the discipline to stick with my rules. They'll be more opportunities to win a trade!
Bordeaux v PSG
French Ligue 1
I shortlisted this game earlier in the morning. While out walking my dog, listening to an audiobook, I checked my mobile and noticed that PSG was being held 0-0 against Bordeaux. Examining the stats, I believed this was a game to trade. When I got home, I entered the Betfair market, laying Under 0.5 goals. Again, setting myself an exit point should the trade go against me.
I had to wait until the 70th minute for the goal to arrive. Neymar was on the score sheet. A winning trade!
Rosenborg v Brann
Rosenborg has been dominant at home this season. No losses in their last ten matches, so when I saw they were being held 0-0 at home to Brann, I was confident to open a trade, expecting goals.
Well, as I've mentioned before, I set myself an exit point, to ensure I have a positive R: R ratio, and that time to exit arrived in the second half when neither side had scored. A losing trade!
In the end, it felt like a small win. Why? The game finished 0-0. If I had not obeyed my rules and got out of the trade when I said I would, then I would have lost a lot more.
Fortuna Sittard v Sparta Rotterdam
I'll be honest this was not a game shortlisted as a potential trade, but I noticed some other traders talking about this match, and I felt it was one I could get involved in.
Not much more to say than I was expected (hoping?) a goal in the second half, but the goal never arrived in time, so I exited when the price decreased to hit my stop-loss, and I was out — another losing trade.
Like with the Rosenborg game, it felt a little better when I saw the match ended 0-0, as it could have been a more significant loss if I had not shown discipline and got out when I did.
I posted on Twitter that today was a losing day for me. This is just part of the journey.
I refer back to the comment I read by Mark Douglas. As traders, we need to be rigid with our rules and flexible with our expectations. I need to be sure it's not the other way round!
Sunday is a new day.
Well, Sunday wasn't much better as you'll see.
Utrecht v Willem II
Look at the pre-match stats I believe this would be a game Utrecht would win. At half time it was still level. Early in the second half, Ultrech went down to ten men after a sending off. I still felt there were goals so layed under 0.5 goals.
It wasn't to be. The price decreased down to my stop loss price so I exited for a loss. Ultrecht went on to win 2-0. I profiled the game correctly, but the goal didn't come early enough.
Corinthians v Vasco
Brasil Serie A
Another game I shortlisted in the morning. I read a stat that Corinthians have only failed to score at home this season in 9% of their games. So when I saw the game was still level, I decided to lay under 0.5 goals.
The goal came around the 59th minute and was a winning trade.
Guimaraes v Ferrira
Portugal Primeira Liga
I was pretty confident going into this trade. The score was still level when I decided to oppose the current score. The reason being is that Guimaraes have scored in all their home games this season and Ferreira have conceded in all of their away games. You can see why I was feeling confident.
Well, this was a losing trade. The goal never arrived before my stop-loss price was hit. I then saw that they scored in the 94th minute to back up those stats, but far too late for me and my trade.
Eskilstuna v Malmo FF
Pre-match stats had Malmo winning this easy. After the first half the game was still level. Malmo has only failed to score away from home in 25% of the games so I layed under 0.5 goals.
Another loss, as the goal never arrived in time. Sticking to my rules, I left at a price I determined before I got involved. Malmo went ahead and scored in the 81st minute. Again this was too late for me and my trading methods.
Standard Liege v Charleroi
So this was interesting. I used a method I've learned from Ben Michaels"Ultimate Football Trading" course for this one. It wasn't my usual trading method. I won't go into the details of how I entered the trade as it's not fair on Ben and his paying members, but to summarise I apposed Charleroi with around 15 mins to go when they were priced at odds on.
Standard Liege have not failed to score in their home games this season, so although they were losing 0-1 I felt there would be a goal. I had to wait until the 91st minute, though! What a thrill to see a goal scored so late and as a result, a winning trade.
There was slight tension near the end as the match went suspended after I had already cashed out. Looking at Flashscore, it said the match was interrupted due to a riot by fans. I wasn't sure if this would void the trade and if I would still get paid. In the end, it was OK as the match was able to finish and the market closed.
Not a great weekend if I'm honest. A losing weekend. I kind of feel deflated, but I know that this is a long journey and not a quick-rich scheme. I assume all traders have an element of doubt or question their methods when they see they've had a losing weekend or period of time?
Before the weekend the balance was: £526.17
P&L for the weekend: -£21.90
Balance at the end of the weekend: £504.27. an ROI of +94% in total since 1-August-19
Although I've had a tricky end to the month, I then feel better when I total up my results and see how September went - Go check out the monthly report page.
September Trading Report
Overall a positive month. 45 trades placed, 29 of which were successful. You can see the break down over in the monthly report page.
I had a lot on this week, so my sports trading had to take a step back, but I still managed to make a profit, as you'll see below.
I managed to read some more chapters from Mark Douglas in one of his trading books. This quote stood out for me: "Be rigid in your rules, flexible in your expectations."
How true is this? I need to set realistic expectations. When trading we won't win every trade, so I don't expect to - but I must still stick to my trading rules.
Jong PSV v Cambuur
Dutch Eerste Divisie
Jong PSV who sit at the bottom of the table were hosting pre-match favourites Cambuur on Monday evening. At half time the score was still goalless. I was looking at the stats and see that Cambuur had 58% of the possession with eight attempts on goal. I had a feeling there might be goals in this, especially against a team bottom of the table.
The game was scrappy and not very entertaining from what I heard, but I was happy when Cambuur scored, and as a result, this was a winning trade.
Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
1-1 at half time. Wolfsburg is unbeaten at home. Went in with smaller stake though based on the fact they have had four 1-1 scorelines at home in the last ten.
As it turned out, this was a losing trade. As I mentioned, Wolfsburg has had four 1-1 scorelines at home and Monday was no different. It stayed 1-1, and so I exited at my Stop-Loss price, and therefore I was out with a losing trade.
Overall I started the week winning one and losing one from the two Monday trades.
The Carabo cup games took place on Tuesday. Although cup games can be challenging to profile before the games, I find there's some value to be found in-play based on the stats from the first half.
Colchester v Tottenham
Tottenham were odds-on favourites at 1.22 against League 2 side Colchester. Although Tottenham put a 2so-called" weaker side out, i expected them to win the game, so when I saw the score was still 0-0 in the second half I decided to lay under 0.5 goals
Well this was somewhat of a surprise. Colchester held on to the 0-0 scoreline and went ahead and beat the Premier League side on penalties. A losing trade for me and another away loss for Pochettino's side.
I also saw that League 2 side Crawley Town beat Championship side Stoke City on penalties. They're going well in the cup after beating Norwich in the previous round.
Brescia v Juventus
Whenever Juventis are playing I always add them to my shortlist and monitor what the result is at half time to see if theres an opportunity to get involved. At half time the score was level at 1-1. I looked at the stats and felt there was more goals in this game. I waited to see how the second half started and then entered, opposing the current score.
I didn't have to wait long when Juventus took the lead making it 1-2. A winning trade that helped cover the loss in the Colchester v Tottenham game.
Overall another break even day on Tuesday. Just like Monday. Won 1, lost one today.
Just the one trade on this day as I had other engagements and couldn't dedicate much time to the evening of football.
Napoli v Cagliari
Napoli was priced at 1.18 odds before the game. The markets were confident of a home win here. I shortlisted the game so I could monitor the game and see how and when I could enter the market.
At half time it was still 0-0. I waited for sometime later in the second half to enter the trade with the score still 0-0. I layed under 0.5 goals, expecting Napoli to get a late winner.
To my surprise, Cagliari scored late in the game to take the lead, and hold on for a shock away win. Not what I or the market was expecting, but I wasn't too bothered. It was still a winning trade.
No further trades as I had some other commitments to attend to. I was tempted to put a cheeky trade on at the last minute, but I resisted the urge.
A somewhat quiet week of football trading. Five trades in total. A small profit, but I'm pleased with any profit. The good news I have now DOUBLED MY STARTING BANK.
Started the week's trading with £517.13
P&L for the week +£9.04
The balance is now £526.17, an ROI of 102% since 1-August-19 when I started.
This weekend I reckon returned my most significant gains since starting the journey and writing this blog back on the 1st August 2019. I haven't looked back to confirm this, but I assume so.
The Rugby World cup started this weekend, so I spent some time watching football as well as the rugby, in between family time, which is the most important thing.
Heidenheim v Darmstadt
Heidenheim were pre-match odds on favourites and have not had a 0-0 draw at home in their last ten games. The same with Darmstadt. Also, looking at the stats, Heidenheim has scored 81% of their goals in the second half. So when I saw the score was 0-0 at half-time, I decided to enter the market and oppose the score.
The goal came in the 59th minute for Heidenheim scored by Leipertz. A winning trade and an excellent start to the weekend!
I was up at 5.40 am, 5 minutes before Australia played Fiji in the Rugby World Cup. My wife didn't think I'd get up for the game, so she was surprised when she got up for work and saw me there in the lounge with a cuppa coffee in my hand and the rugby on TV.
I had some family commitments later in the morning, but I managed to get home for some trades on what was a sunny and pleasant Saturday in September.
Villarreal v Valladolid
While watching the lunchtime kick-off between Leicester City and Tottenham (which I wasn't trading), I noticed Villareal were being held 0-0 at home to Valladolid. Looking at the stats, I saw that Villareal had not finished a game 0-0 in the last ten games at home. Valladolid had not had a 0-0 away from home in their previous ten games either.
I decided to wait until mid-way through the second half and then get involved and oppose the score, laying Under 0.5 goals. I admit there is some risk in waiting too long and missing out on a trade if a goal is scored sooner than expected, but I knew there was plenty of games in the afternoon, so I wasn't panicking — no need to rush.
Premier Sports TV now have the rights to broadcast La Liga, so I was flicking between the Leicester game on Sky and the Villareal game on Premier Sports (yes I'm one of those who subscribes to pretty much all sports channels!)
The goal came in the 77th minute when Villareal was awarded a penalty that they converted. I was pleased that Saturday started with a winning trade.
Motherwell v Ross County
Scottish Premier League
I wasn't in this trade for very long. Motherwell, the odds on favourites, were level at half time against Ross County. Motherwell hasn't been involved in a goalless draw at home in some time. None in the last ten home games in fact. So knowing this, along with several attempts on goal between the two sides in the first half, helped me to make my decision and oppose the current score and lay the under 0.5 goals.
Just minutes after entering the trade Motherwell scored, making it 1-0 and as a result my second winning trade of the day.
Everton v Sheff United
Everton's form at home has been pretty good of late, but they found themselves 0-1 down against newly promoted Sheff United. I believed there would be more goals in the game and could see Everton looking to get back into it in front of their home fans. Being pre-match favourites, the market makers also believed Everton had a good chance of winning this game. I decided to oppose the current score, expecting more goals.
I was made to wait for this trade. I had flashscore open on one monitor and the Betfair Exchange on my primary monitor, and I was about to exit the trade for the loss. There were no goals, and the price was decreasing down to my pre-determined stop loss. Suddenly the market was SUSPENDED. I looked at Flashcores and heard the audible cheer. (A lovely sound if you want a goal!)
There was the goal! Not from Everton but instead from Sheffield United who had extended their lead making it 0-2. Amazing! A winning trade just as I was preparing to exit for a loss, feels good. Sometimes this kind of scenario works in my favour, but there have been times when it doesn't, and I exit the trade only to see a goal scored minutes later.
Zenit v Ruben
Russian Premier League
Zenit leads the Russian Premier league and was being held to a goalless draw at half time. They had the majority of possession and were looking likely to score, so I decided to lay the under 0.5 goals market.
I didn't have to wait for long to win this trade as Zenit scored in the 58th minute. In the end, they comfortably won 5-0.
Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo
Spanish La Liga
I was viewing this game on Premier Sports. At half time the score was 0-0, and I was pretty confident the game wouldn't end with this scoreline. Atletico Madrid, under the management of Simone, hasn't been held to 0-0 at home in their last ten games. Atletico Madrid had ten attempts on goal in the first half with three on target. I decided to get involved and oppose the current score expecting goals.
As it turned out, this was a losing trade. I proved my discipline and exited the trade when my stop-loss price had been met as no further goals were scored.
In the end, funnily enough, this trade felt like a small win. I exited for a pre-determined loss, but if I had not done so, it could have been far worse as the game surprisingly ended 0-0. It shows me I have to stick to my trading rules and accept a loss if the trade is going against me.
A couple of trades today. Both opposed the half time scores, and both returned a profit
Celtic v Kilmarnock
Scottish Premier League
The score was 1-1 at half time, but I felt there were more goals in it. Celtic had 67% of the possession and 15 attempts on goal. Kilmarnock was looking like a decent underdog as well, so I layed the under 2.5 goals.
Celtic scored in the 53rd minute, and as a result, this was a winning trade.
Arsenal v Aston Villa
English Premier League.
At half time Arsenal was losing to Aston Villa 0-1. Although Arsenal had a man sent off, I felt either side would score in the second half. Either Arsenal, as pre-match favs, would score, or Villa with the man advantage might extend their lead. Therefore I apposed the score expecting goals.
I didn't have to wait long as Pepe scored for Arsenal from the spot in the 59th minute making it 1-1 and a winning trade.
I've just totalled up the profits. I'm more than happy with the results this weekend. I didn't keep track of the balance until I started to write this post for the blog. I reckon it's the most significant gains I've had since starting on the 1st of August.
Balance at the start of the weekend: £441.93
P&L for the week: +£75.20
This means the bank has grown to £517.13, which is +95% ROI on the starting amount back on the 1st August. Yay! I've nearly doubled my bank.
It's so damn annoying when you profile a match, and you are entering the trade in-play, but then you miss out because of the delay Betfair impose with in-play trading. On Monday I was looking at the match between Djurgarden and Helsingborg in the Swedish Allsvenskan.
The score was still 0-0, but I was anticipating a goal. Djurgarden has been impressive at home, losing just the once in their last ten games. Helsingborg on the other day have been poor away from home. The match was pretty open with seven shots on target between them in the first half. All of this was leading me towards entering the market and laying the current score.
I decide to go ahead and place my lay order. The match is in-play, so I have to wait 8 seconds for the order to be matched and then.....the market is "SUSPENDED!" There was the goal I expected. I quickly checked (in vain) to see if my lay order had gone through, beating the 8-second delay. It had not! The order was cancelled with 3 seconds remaining when the market was suspended. I hate the feeling of leaving money on the table. I was correct in my assumption there would be a goal, but I was seconds too late! So that's how my Monday started. I did manage to get on another trade.
St Pauli v Hamburg
German Bundesliga 2
I had profiled this match earlier in the day as a potential trade. St Pauli was the home underdogs but had taken the lead in the 18th minute. At halftime, the score was still 1-0 to St Pauli. I watched the start of the second half to see how Hamburg, the pre-match favourites would respond. They must have received an earful from their coach because Hamburg came out for the second half looking lively and so it was time to enter the market. Before doing so, I check the stats. Hamburg has not lost away from home in their last five games. They have scored 61% of their goals in the second half this season. All of this was the trigger to enter the market. Rather than oppose St Pauli, I decided to lay the Unders market.
Laying the Unders market proved to be the correct decision as Hamburg, although on top at the start of the second half, were caught out while defending a free-kick, allowing St Pauli to score a soft goal. Their second of the match and for me, a winning trade.
I was still annoyed about missing out on the earlier game, but at least this second trade of the day proved to be successful.
Champions League is back. It's great to watch, but I'm not sure how best to trade the games (yet!), so I decided to reduce my stakes for these games.
Inter Milan v Slavia Prague
This was one of the early kick offs. Inter Milan were pre-match favourites priced at 1.61. Slavia Prague were priced at 5.75.
I watched the first half and was impressed with Slavia Prague given their underdog status. They held Conte's Inter Milan side to a 0-0 scoreline at half time. I sent out a tweet saying I was going to see how the second half would start then look to enter a trade. I was expecting goals, especially given Inter Milan's form at home recently.
I entered the trade around the 55th minute, laying the "Unders 0.5 goals" market. I didn't have to wait long as Slavia Prague took a surprising lead in the 63rd minute. A winning trade and made it two from two mid-week trades so far.
I continued to watch the game, although I was now out of the trade. Inter Milan went on to score an equaliser in the final minutes of the game and for a moment looked to try and get the win. If they had won the game, I believe it would have been harsh on Slavia Prague as they deserved a point from the match.
Coventry v AFC Wimbledon
This was a game I shortlisted earlier in the day. Coventry is doing well in League 1 this season, but AFC Wimbledon is struggling, especially away from home. Earlier in the day, I made a note to monitor this game at half time to see if there was an opportunity to get involved. As it happened, it was 1-1 at Half time, and I expected Coventry to go on and win this. Therefore I opposed the scoreline and traded the under 2.5 goals market.
The trade didn't work out. Neither side could find a goal before the price had hit my pre-determined stop loss and so I exited the trade for a loss. It just so happens Coventry went on to get the winner late on in the game. Too late for me, though.
Napoli v Liverpool
If I'm honest, I didn't add this match to my shortlist. I was watching the game, and although it was 0-0 at half time, I felt there were goals in the match. I entered this trade based on what I saw with my own eyes more so than looking at form or stats. I layed Under 0.5 goals and waited for a goal.
Like with the Coventry v AFC Wimbledon game, neither side could hit the back of the net, and I was watching the price on the Betfair Exchange getting closer to my stop loss. A few minutes later, the score was still 0-0, but staying disciplined and in line with my trading rules I exited for a loss. Napoli went on to beat Liverpool 2-0, but it was too late for me. I expected goals, but I needed them to arrive earlier in the second half. Oh well, nothing to hide, it's just another loss which is part of trading.
Tuesday was a frustrating day with one win from 3 trades, so a red day.
It's apparent, looking at the week do dar that that being disciplined and getting out with my stop loss, although I have just a 50% Win strike rate I am still in profit. If I had been trading with an adverse Risk to reward ratio, I would have been in a losing situation after these four trades. It shows me I'm on the right track.
A couple of Champions league trades on Wednesday. I decided to use smaller stakes because I feel there's a lack of form within the competition and most of my trades will be based on what I see in the first half.
Atletico Madrid v Juventus
On paper, this match was one to watch, and so I did just that. I sat down on the sofa with a glass of red and observed a great game of football. At half time I chose to enter the market, expecting goals and layed the "Correct Score".
Juventus extended their lead making it 2-0 and therefore a successful trade. I continued to watch and enjoy the match with Atletico Madrid pulling off a comeback, equalising from a corner in the 90th minute, making it 2-2. Kieran Trippier with the assist seems to be settling well in Madrid.
Leverkusen v Lokomotiv
While watching the Atletico Madrid v Juventus game, I saw some other scores coming through on TV and one of which was Leverkusen, pre-match favourites at home, losing 1-2. This caught my attention, so I checked the stats on my mobile app. It appeared Leverkusen were having a lot of the possession and had a chance of getting back into the game. I decided to lay the "correct score" with a small stake. A lower stake than usual because a) it's the Champions League and 2) I wasn't watching the game - the Atletico Madrid game was on TV.
Throughout the second half, I kept an eye on the Leverkusen score and monitored the Betfair Exchange prices. In the end, Leverkusen couldn't find the goal, and Lokomotiv couldn't extend their lead, so I exited at my stop-loss price, for a loss.
Wednesday ended with one win and one losing trade.
It wasn't a great week for the Premier League side in the Champions League. Only Man City got the win. A draw for Tottenham and losses for both Liverpool and Chelsea.
Qarabag v Sevilla
Sevilla were pre-match favourites priced around 1.83. At half-time, the score was still 0-0. A quick look at the recent form shows Sevilla have not lost away in the league this season. I chose to lay Under 0.5 goals in this match, fully expecting a goal in the second half.
I didn't have to wait long. Chicharito, their new signing from West Ham, scored after 62 minutes. A winning trade! Sevilla, as many expected, went on to win the game 0-3 away from home.
Man United v FC Astana
Man United were clear favourites. The market was offering short odds of just 1.28. I took a look at their starting line up, and I wasn't sure why the odds were so low, seeing as many of the regular players were not starting the game. Ole appears to be resting his players for the Premier League games.
Although Man United didn't have their greatest side out, they were still at home against a so-called weaker team and was surprised to see the score was still 0-0 in the second half.
Due to the under strengthed Man United side, and it is a Europa League match, I entered a trade but with a lower stake. I layed under 0.5 goals.
It worked out to be a successful trade when Greenwood scored in the 73rd minute, just before my stop-loss price was about to be met.
Wolves v Braga
Like with the Man United game, I expected Wolves to win this game. The pre-match odds for Wolves were around 1.70, so the market agreed with me (or should I say I agreed with the market). The score was 0-0 in the second half, and I expected goals, so I layed the unders market.
I was made to sweat a little as my stop-loss was approaching and I was due to exit for a loss, but then Braga scored in the 71st minute to take the lead and therefore a winning trade. I didn't expect them to win the game, but when trading the goals market, as I've mentioned before, I don't care. All I need is a goal.
Braga held on to win the match 0-1 away to Wolves, so a good result for them.
Overall the mid-week trades were profitable. A tricky start at the beginning but three from 3 successful trades on Thursday helped.
Balance at the start of the week: £414.60
P&L for the week: +£27.33
Starting balance on the 1st August was £260. The balance is now £441.93.
My trading methods are coming along nicely. I'm documenting my entry and exit points and sticking to my rules. So far, so good. I hope I can keep this up, as it's still a small sample size of trades.
I'm pleased that club football returns after the international break. Maybe it's just me, but I struggle to trade international games with conviction. I have a gut feeling or read articles or pre-match reports analysing the games, but I wouldn't risk a lot of my bank on these games.
I enjoy watching England, though. I travelled down to Southampton to see them play Kosovo in an entertaining but bizarre match! I tell you what Kosovo are a decent side, tidy on the ball, albeit vulnerable at the back (or was that England I'm thinking about!!)
Arrghh Friday 13th! Some may not trade on this particular date, but there were three trades for me. I just kept myself locked in incase a grand piano, or some other large object fell on me from the sky!
Jiangsu v Guangzhou
Chinese Super League
Guangzhou, with Brazilian midfielder Paulinho in their side, is fighting for the Chinese Super League title. They were odds-on favourites with the bookies priced at 1.75, albeit playing away from home.
At half time I noticed they were 0-1 down. I glanced at the stats and recognised they would need a win keep some distance at the top of the Chinese Super League. Being away from home was something else to consider, so I decided to Lay the "under 1.5" goals market rather than oppose Jiangsu. I expected Guangzhou to score in the second half, but it's entirely possible Jiangsu, playing at home, could score another.
As expected, Guangzhou scored in the 62nd minute to make it 1-1, and as a result, this was a successful trade.
Jiangsu surprisingly went on to win the game 3-1. So somewhat of a shock result. I didn't worry as my trade was successful, and I was already out of the market.
Le Havre v Paris FC
French Ligue 2
Le Havre sits top of the table, and I noticed that although Paris FC had a red card before half time, the scoreline was still goalless. I decided to Lay "Under 0.5 goals" expecting Le Havre, the league leaders, to take the lead against the ten men of Paris FC.
Well, adhering to my rules and possessing some discipline, the price reduced to a level I was going to exit if no further goals were scored. Le Havre couldn't break down the Paris FC stubborn defence, and so after 72 minutes I followed my plan and exited for a loss. Oh well, it happens!
Looking back on this trade, I would have traded this scenario in most cases, so I wasn't going to beat myself up. It doesn't make it any easier to accept, though!
Setubal v Braga
Portuguese Primeira Liga
Setubal, Jose Mourinho's home town (a fact of the day for you, maybe?) were hosting Braga who were the favourites priced around 1.75.
Half time the score was still goalless. I did some research during the half time interval and noticed that Braga had scored 60% of their goals this season in the second half. So thinking that being odds-on favourites and they tend to score 60% of their goals in the second half, I anticipated a goal. I wouldn't rule out a goal for Setubal either, and so with that, I decided to enter the market and lay "under 0.5 goals" ten minutes into the second half. I just needed either side to score.
The goal came after 74 minutes, just before my Stop-Loss price was about to hit. Setubal took the lead, making it 1-0 and as a result a winning trade. They went on to win the game and Braga had a player sent off. Another valid reason for sticking to the Over/Under markets rather than back or opposing a team. At least that's my been rationale and approach recently.
Overall a profitable start to the weekend. Two wins from three trades.
No trades on what is usually a busy Saturday as I had family commitments.
After missing a day of trading yesterday, I planned to find some matches to trade.
Barnsley v Leeds
A small, low stake trade on this one as I chose to enter the trade using my iPad while I was sitting in a golf clubhouse, waiting for my Son's lesson to finish.
I noticed that Leeds, who are near the top of the Championship, was being held to draw against Barnsley at half-time.
I layed the "correct score" market, expecting a goal. Unfortunately, the goal never arrived before the price of the market decreased to my Stop-Loss level. I was sticking to the plan and cashed out for a small loss.
It just so happens Leeds went on to score two late goals and win the match. It shows I profiled the game correctly, expecting goals in the second half, but unfortunately, they arrived too late.
Malmo v Norrkoping
I had profiled this game and added it to my shortlist of matches for the day. Malmo has scored 65% of their goals in the second half, so I considered entering just after half time if the game was level.
As it turned out it was 0-0 at half time, so as planned I layed the Under goals market but as I always do, is set a stop-loss should there be no further goals, rather than risk the full liability.
I didn't have to wait too long as Malmo scored around the 57th minute. A winning trade!
Bodo/Glimt v Stabaek
Another game I profiled and added to my shortlist earlier in the day. I noticed the home team were odds-on favourites, but were losing 1-2 at half time. Looking at their stats, Bodo/Glimt have lost only one game in their last ten at home, so I expected them to pull this back to 2-2 and maybe also go onto win the match. I was pretty confident with this trade so I layed the Unders goal market.
Well, it wasn't meant to be. The price had decreased to my Stop-Loss level, and so, with discipline, I exited for a loss.
Typically there was a goal a few minutes later. A little gutted seeing that. I hate it when that happens!
Valladolid v Osasuna
Spanish La Liga
I entered this market later than I usually do. I was sitting on the sofa browsing the football scores and saw that Valladolid, who were favourites at home, still drawing 0-0 approaching the 60th minute. After looking at the stats, it shows Valladolid have not had a 0-0 in their last ten games at home. Osasuna themselves have only had one in their last ten away games. This was a time for me to get involved, and that's what I did. I layed the Under goals market anticipating a late goal.
I only had to wait 5 minutes. Valladolid took the lead, making it 1-0, and I had a successful trade for what turned out to be my final trade of the weekend.
All in all, a decent weekend of trading. Some were losers, but there were more wins which returned a profit.
Balance carried from last weekend: £386.28.
P&L for the weekend +£28.32
Balance: is now £414.60, an ROI of +59% since starting on the 1-August-19.
Four out of seven winning trades this weekend. That's a 57% winning strike rate, but from making a conscious effort to keep the Risk: Reward at least 1:1 I still returned a profit.
International football is still underway, so the number of opportunities to trade have been lower than usual.
I did manage to get a couple of trades on though.
Wales v Azerbaijan
Euro 2020 Qualifier
I wasn't expecting to trade on Friday, but when I got a notification on my phone that Wales were being held 1-1 at home to Azerbaijan with around 15 minutes to go, I decided to look at the market and contemplate how I could enter into a trade.
Wales was the home favourites with pre-match odds of around 1.28. It looked to me like another goal would arrive before the 90th minute so I decided to Lay "Under 2.5 goals.
As expected, there was another goal. Wales scored in the 85th minute, and therefore, I recorded a winning trade.
There's not much to describe with this trade. The score was 1-1 around the 70th-minute mark. Looking at the stats I felt there was an opportunity to enter the trade with low risk, but a decent reward for a traditional Lay The Draw (LTD) strategy. (Edit: Does anyone still use the LTD?)
As it turned out, there was indeed another goal on the 74th-minute mark. I decided to cash out for a profit in case of Tranmere equalising. (Don't get too greedy Craig!)
I was glad I made that decision as Tranmere did score a few minutes later making it 2-2. I felt lucky in a way, but then I suppose that's trading. Some you win, some you miss out on. This resulted in a decent return for me.
Overall another slow weekend of football trading. This coming week will likely be the same as the second round of International matches take place. I'll look out for some opportunities, but I honestly I don't like trading International football.
A productive weekend though.
Balance carried from the mid-week: £347.93
Weekend P&L: £38.35
Current balance: £386.28 (+48% ROI since 1st August)
Trading the football during an International week can be slow. Roll on next week, I say! I did manage to find some trades, but as it wasn't club football, I decided to use smaller stakes.
AFC Wimbledon v Brighton U-21
Alert! Alert! I went against my trading style for this one.
I was accompanying a friend to a non-league football match, under the lights (albeit a dim, not so bright set of floodlights) on a September evening.
At half time, in between ordering a pint and a packet of salt n vinegar crisps, I was browsing Twitter and checking the Flashscore app. One match stood out. I saw that League 1 side, AFC Wimbledon, playing at home, were level at half-time versus Brighton's Under 21's in the EFL cup. With this, I placed my pint to one side, opened up the Betfair mobile App and decided to lay the "under 0.5 goals". Wait, what was that Craig? Yeah, I know, I traded a fixture using my mobile phone! It wasn't the first time I've done this. I remember one Friday night doing the same thing.
I want to add, I was aware of this risk, and used a minimal stake. Merely in case, I lost 4G connection or if I was engrossed in the Tony Pulis style of football being played in front of me and miss my stop-loss price.
I didn't take a screenshot of this trade, but the goal arrived early in the second half, so albeit a little risky, this was a small win.
Armenia v Italy
Euro 2020 Qualifier
I'm not sure if I like trading international games, so I used smaller stakes.
I entered this trade because Italy, who sit unbeaten at the top of Group J, was level at half-time, 1-1. As well as the score being level, Armenia had a player sent off just before the break.
I opened a trade, placing a Lay on the "Under 2.5 goals". I anticipated Italy would score a goal and go onto win the game against the ten men of Armenia.
As it turned out, there were no further goals before the price had decreased and hit my stop-loss price. Sticking to my rules, I exited the trade for a loss.
Typically Italy scored three minutes later. They went on to win 1-3 away to Armenia. It's so annoying when this happens, but I'm pleased I've stuck to the rules in my trading plan.
Israel v North Macedonia
Euro 2020 Qualifier
The second trade of the day and the final midweek trade was a match between Israel and North Macedonia. I felt confident about this trade.
Studying the stats, I saw that Israel had the majority of possession, 60%. They were also the market's pre-match favourites so expected to win. Finally, glancing at their home form, it's been pretty impressive over the last five home games.
Surprisingly the score was 0-0 at half time. You might ask, why don't I back Israel if all the form and stats are in their favour? My reason is that this is the wonderful game of football!! An underdog can score or steal a win in any game. So when trading the "under" x.5 goal market, while I'm expecting the likes of Israel to score and win, but I'm covering myself should there be a surprise and the underdogs, North Macedonia score. Either way, a goal is a winning trade for me, rather than backing a team to perform.
As it This trade turned out to be successful as Israel scored a goal approaching the 55th minute. The earnings from this trade covered the earlier Armenia v Italy loss plus a little more.
North Macedonia made it 1-1 late in the second have and that's how the game finished. This is why I explained I was trading the goals market and not the match odds market.
I placed just the three trades since Monday. One of them was a risky trade using my mobile phone. I've had a (small) profitable week though! I wonder how you all like to trade football during the international break?
Balance carried over from the weekend: £334.18
Mid-week P&L +£13.75
Balance: £347.93 (+33.8% ROI of the starting balance)
I'm pleased with the gains so far!
The month of August has now passed, which was my first month of recording my trades here in the SportsTraydor blog. It wasn't an entire month as I took ten days off for my holiday.
You can see below how the final weekend of the month went, and how August turned out in a separate report I've published.
I had other commitments on Friday, so no trading for me. For a moment, I considered trading on my mobile phone, but I resisted the urge to do so.
I didn't have the opportunity to trade an afternoon session of football as I decided to take my Son down to watch a League 2 game between Crawley Town and Cheltenham. It was a scrappy and uneventful football match until Crawley scored in the final minutes to win 1-0 on the back of their win against Premier League side, Norwich City in the Carabao Cup. Saying that, I assume it was scored in the final minutes as the scoreboard was not working inside the ground!
Panathinaikos v OFI Crete
Greece Super League
A match I profiled and shortlisted for the evening's trades upon my return from the League 2 game I attended earlier. Panathinaikos were odds-on favourites at 1.50 but found themselves losing 0-1 at half time.
I was about to enter the market expecting a goal in the second half, but then to my surprise, the underdogs, OFI Crete, scored another making it 0-2. Surely a pre-match favourite playing at home would score a goal, even if they don't win the game? I thought so and decided to lay the correct score. I could have used the under 2.5 goals market, but I decided to use the correct score market.
Four minutes later, to my surprise, OFI Crete made it 0-3. I wasn't expecting them to score, but I didn't mind as all I needed was a goal and why I prefer to trade the goals markets at the moment. I just assumed Panathinaikos would have got the next goal. A winning trade though and covers the loss from Thursday.
Servette v Xamax
Switzerland Super League
OK, I admit, two sides I don't think I have ever traded before; however, it was a game that caught my attention while browsing matches currently in-play. Servette were at home against bottom of the league side Xamax yet were losing 0-2 at half time. This scenario meant I wanted to get involved and trade.
Like with the game in Greece, I looked at the correct score market, anticipating another goal. I thought to myself I'd be surprised if the game ended 0-2 with an odds-on favourite, at home, playing a team who are bottom of the Swiss Super League. This rationale was my reason for entering the trade.
Around 10 minutes later, the home favourites, Servette, scored making it 1-2 and that was enough for me to win the trade.
Before the trade, following my trading rules, I set myself a stop-loss price to exit if there were no further goals. I wasn't prepared to leave this lay entry in the market and risk the full liability. That's not my plan. Before any trade, I work out what my risk is and how much am I prepared to lose before I even speculate potential profits.
Angers v Dijon
French Ligue 1
Angers was clear favourites with the market makers against Dijon who occupy the bottom of Ligue 1. Granted the season is still only a few weeks old, but Dijon have not yet won a game. At half time the score was 0-0. Looking at the stats Angers haven't finished a game 0-0 in their last five home games. So with this information, I decide to enter the market and lay "Under 0.5 goals" anticipating a goal in the second half. I set myself a stop-loss price to exit should there be no further goals.
Just a few minutes into the second half, as I expected, Angers score and made it 1-0. Excellent! A winning trade and this happened to me my third successful trade of the day. That was me done for the day.
Goodbye (and thank you August) and hello September.
I profiled and shortlisted a few games to monitor today, but only two matches met my selection criteria at half-time.
E. Frankfurt v Dusseldorf
Frankfurt were odds-on favourites at home to Dusseldorf. I was scanning my shortlist of games at half-time and found they were losing 0-1. A quick look at the first half stats and it appeared to me there were more goals in this game. I also found that Dusseldorf hasn’t kept a clean sheet in their last three games and the last seven games produced over 2.5 goals.
I entered the market laying “Under 1.5 goals” looking for a goal in the second half. As with all my recent trades, I set myself a stop-loss to exit if there were no further goals.
Thankfully, the goal came in the 57th minute before the price had decreased and hit my stop-loss. Frankfurt leveled it up 1-1. I was pretty confident with this trade, so I had increased my stake for this trade, and it came in nicely.
Atletico Madrid v Eibar
Spanish La Liga 1
I wasn’t expecting to enter a trade with this match. I thought Atletico Madrid would be clear winners here. At half-time, I saw they were losing 1-2 against Eiber who were at odds of 11.0 before the match. This scenario meant it was now a game I could trade. I expected Madrid to come out flying in the second half, so I layed “under 3.5 goals”.
I had to wait just six minutes of the second half before I was profitable. As expected, Atletico Madrid equalised making it 2-2. Smaller stakes used for this match as I tend to prefer low scores at half time, but this was one match I felt I had to get involved with and trade even though there were three goals already scored in the first half.
Overall it was a decent weekend of trading. Actually, let me rephrase that - an excellent weekend. Three from three trades on Saturday and two from two on Sunday. An excellent finish to August and a good start to September.
I’ve published a separate report on how August went for me.
Balance before the weekend: £277.18
Weekend P&L = +£57.00
Current Bank: £334.18 (+28.5% on the starting balance)
To summarise how I feel my trading went in August. It didn’t produce the gains I was hoping for that I posted at the start of the month, but at least I haven't squandered the trading account. Maybe I was being too greedy or expecting too much from the get-go?
I started out using lesser stakes as I intended since there wasn't much pre-match form to look at in the European leagues. So now recognising all of this, I would say I'm "satisfied" although not ecstatic with the first-month trading and recording my results here in the SportsTraydor blog.
Overall, and let’s be honest here, a 17.6% return of investment in only one month outside of sports trading would be very welcome, so I have to keep it real and be pleased.
In September I'll be concentrating more on trading with a positive Risk to Reward ratio, targeting a minimum of a 1:1 Risk-to-reward meaning in the long term I need to win 50% of my trades to break-even. More than a 50% strike rate with a 1:1 RR (Risk-to-Reward) and I'll be profitable. If I'm honest, it’s something I wasn't giving much respect to at the beginning of August.
I hope you all had a green weekend too!
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.