Happy Halloween everyone. The month of October comes to a close but before I reflect on the month of sports trading, I'll post my mid-week results.
Basaksehir v Trabzonspor
Turkey Super Lig
A game I shortlisted earlier in the day, expecting goals. At half time the score was still level at 0-0, so I entered the market, opposing the current score, anticipating a goal.
The goal arrived midway through the second half. Former Liverpool and Chelsea striker, Daniel Sturridge scored a penalty making it 0-1 to Trabzonspor. A winning trade to start the week.
Sandhausen v Wehen
Another game I shortlisted earlier in the day. (See, I'm learning from my mistakes that I mention in my last post. I'm entering games I have identified pre-match!)
At half time the score was 0-0. Looking at the first half stats and it being a game on my shortlist, I entered the goals market, opposing the current score.
It wasn't to be. Although Sandhausen went a man down in the 63rd minute, there were no further goals in this bottom of the table clash. The game ended 0-0, and so this was a losing trade, wiping out the profits from the earlier game.
Monday finished with one win, one loss, so a break-even day.
Brescia v Inter Milan
This match was the only trade that met my pre-match criteria. It was a game shown on BT Sport, so I sat and watched this match from the comfort of my living room.
Inter were winning 0-1 at half time. The second half started lively with Balotelli going close to scoring for Brescia early on. At this point in the match I sensed there were more goals in the game, so I layed the goals market expecting more goals.
I didn't have to wait for long. Inter Milan made it 0-2 in the 63rd minute. I came out of the trade with a profit, in what was to be my final trade of October. Inter Milan went on to win the match 1-2.
No further trades for me this week. Other commitments and Trick or Treating with the family on Halloween night.
I started the week with £579.32
Midweek P&L +£8.80
Balance is now £588.12 (ROI +126% since 1-August-19)
My thoughts as I look back in October.
The good news is that I hit my minimum target of 15% ROI a month. I have posted an update in the "Monthly Report section."
Compared to September, I believe the most significant difference in my trading is that I was staking between 4-9% of the bank in September. I made a conscious decision to revert to a more conservative staking plan between 1-2% of the bank this month. Is that playing too safe, I wonder?
My preferred style of trading since September has been to trade the second-half, where I'm expecting one or more goals. If I'm honest with myself, it's a preferred style of trading, to expect more goals (or not) rather than backing or opposing a particular team.
I tried some first-half trading in August and a few more attempts this month, and I will keep looking for an angle for trades in the first half, but I'm not convinced by it at the moment. Maybe I will find something in the future but going into November; I'm sticking with second-half trading.
What're my plans for November?
Good luck to my fellow sports traders in November! Stay green!
Yes!! Well done England who are on their way to the Rugby World Cup final. What a game against a tough New Zealand side. I have to admit I cheered somewhat loudly when we scored the first try. I'm not sure the neighbours appreciated it unless they're rugby fans. I'm looking forward to next Saturdays final against South Africa.
First of all, I didn't trade the Southampton v Leicester City game on Friday night. I was contemplating the over 8.5 goals from the start, but I decided against it. Okay, okay, of course, I wasn't thinking of the over 8.5 goals market. What a crazy result, though!
Esberg v Midtjylland
Midtjylland were odds on before the game. When I saw they were level at half time, but with 70% possession, I decided the enter the market, laying the Under 1.5 goals.
The first goal arrived in the 56th minute for the home side, so rather than cashing out I removed some of the liability as I believed there would be another goal.
It was the correct call to make as the second goal was scored in the 67th minute. Midtyjllan levelled making it 1-1. A winning trade to start the weekend.
The final score was 1-2, with Midtjylland getting all three points.
Nancy v Lens
French Ligue 1
I went against my pre-match selection criteria on this one, so maybe some might say I deserved to lose the trade. I was studying the in-play stats and thought there would be a goal.
I layed the goal market in the second half. The odds were below evens, so my liability was lower than the potential profits, so when the game finished 0-0, although it was a losing trade, it wasn't a significant loss.
I "must" stick to my match selection!!
Jeonbuk v Seoul
Korean K League
While the rugby was on, I remembered I was to put a trade on this Korean league match. It was just silly as I was engrossed in the rugby match on TV, but I didn't want to miss out on a potential trade I had shortlisted. What made it worse is that I over staked the trade.
With the score 0-1 to Seoul at half time, I felt Jeonbuk, being odds on pre-match favourites, priced at 1.55, would get back into the game. I opposed the score but made sure I set myself a stop loss if no goal arrived.
As it happened, no goal arrived in time, and the price hit my stop, so I exited the trade for a significant loss - due to the increased stake. Typically a goal was scored minutes later, so this was a kick in the teeth - but hey, at least England won in the rugby.
After watching the rugby, losing my first trade of the day and taking the dogs for a walk across the fields, I was back at trading HQ - aka my laptop and monitor, ready for some more trading.
Sundsvall v Heisingborg
Sundsvall was priced at 1.50 before the game. After studying the stats, following my selection criteria, I anticipated goals in the game. At half time the score was still 0-0. I decided to enter the market, still expecting goals, so I layed Under 1.5 goals at odds of 1.85.
The first goal didn't arrive until the 82nd minute. I wasn't expecting another late goal, so I cashed out for a small loss.
Well typically, there was a second goal in the 85th minute and then a third in the 86th minute, with the game ending Sundsvall 1-2 Helsingborg. Oh well!
Lecce v Juventus
I marked this as a game that Juventus should win easily. When I saw that it was 1-1 in the second half, I was expecting another goal. I opposed the current score and entered the market.
I was watching the game on the live stream, willing the players from both sides to get another goal, but it wasn't to be. The match finished a surprising 1-1, and so this was my second losing trade of the day. For the Lecce players and fans, this point felt like a win.
Schalke v Dortmund
There isn't much to say with this. I was reading some comments online about this game, and many people and fellow traders were expecting goals in this game, and I felt the same (or maybe even persuaded or feared missing out?).
I opposed the current 0-0 score expecting goals. With the time advancing, it was looking like it would end 0-0 and that is what happened. This resulted in a losing trade.
Preston v Blackburn
I decided to dutch the correct score when I saw Blackburn take the lead 0-2 in this game. Preston's form at home has been excellent, so I expected them to score and get back into the game.
When Preston pulled it back to make it 1-2 in the 53rd minute, I waited a bit longer before removing the liability. It meant I reduced my potential profits, but becomes a risk-free trade.
I'm glad I did as Preston pulled it back to 3-2, scoring in the 65th and then taking the lead in the 82nd minute, which wasn't a score I selected in my dutch trade. This was a winning trade to help make up from the two earlier losses today.
Lille v Bordeaux
French Ligue 1
Lille was winning 1-0 but after analysing the stats, it appears there could be more goals. I entered the market opposing the current score, expecting a goal or more.
Lille made it 2-0 in the 62nd minute. I cashed out for a win. Lille went on to win 3-0.
Piast v Korona
With the away team named Korona, it just made me feel thirsty.
So like with the Lille game, I felt there were more goals in the game. Korona's away form hasn't been great, and they find themselves at the wrong end of the league table.
The score was 0-0 at half time, so I entered the market, expecting more goals
When the goal arrived early in the second half, I decided to remove the liability and create a risk-free trade. There were no further goals, so it was a scratch trade - or a minimal return.
Waragem v Oostende
Belgium Jupiler League
Late in the second half, I opposed the current score, laying under 1.5 goals.
The first goal came in the 80th min so I removed the liability to create a risk-free trade. The second goal arrived in the 87th minute, so this turned out to be a winning trade.
Montpellier v Angers
French Ligue 1
The in-play stats suggested there was to be at least a goal in this game. The issue with this is I didn't check my pre-match trading rules to make sure it was the right trade to enter.
In the end there were no further goals and the game finished 0-0. This was annoying as I didn't follow my rules.
When will I learn?
Overall a negative day and I felt worn out from it all. I initially thought I had an okay day, but then I recalled when typing up my notes, the silly trade from the morning that put a significant dent in the returns. Over staking and being occupied is never a good thing. I'll learn from it, though!
Western Utd v Melbourne City
Melbourne City was winning 0-1 at half time. I looked at the stats and felt the home side were not being dominated and Western United, playing at home, could get back into this, so I layed Melbourne priced at 1.45.
Sitting down to watch the second half, Western United hit the post early in the second half. Ooh! So close! Then moments later, they were awarded a penalty that they converted to make it 1-1. I gave it a minute for the markets to settle and then cashed out for a profit. A winning trade to start the day.
Wales v South Africa
Rugby World Cup.
I know, what's this? A rugby trade? Well, this is SportsTraydor, not football traydor. I concentrate on football, but when I see an opportunity in other sports, I'll enter the market.
South Africa had a small lead during the first half. I thought their price was too low and I layed them priced at 1.32. In the second half, the score was level at 16-16. I wasn't sure which way the match was going to finish, so I cashed out for a profit.
South Africa went on to win the match and play England in next weeks Rugby World Cup final. (Come on England!)
My following trades on Sunday were entered while I was away from my trading desk so I'll summarise them.
CD Santurtzi v Real Sociedad III. The stats showed there was likely to be goals in the game so I entered the market when it was still 0-0.
This trade worked out as the match finished 1-1 and was a winning trade.
KC Krasnodor (Res) v FK Orenburg (Res). Some obscure youth game in Russia but the criteria was in line with my trading plan. The liquidity wasn't an issue as I am not entering with significant stakes. The score was 0-1, and I expected the home team, who was pressing for a goal, to draw level. It never happened and was a losing trade. The home team missed a penalty in the 65th minute, so that was a tad annoying!
FK Makedonija v Shkendija. This was another game that met my criteria.
Hey, you can see I'm opening up to the global side of the game, and not just the significant European leagues! I know when I increase my stakes, this won't be possible.
This match ended up being a losing trade. According to the stats, I thought there would be more goals in the second half, but there wasn't, and the game ended 0-0.
KFUM Oslo v Kongsvinger. Midway through the second half the score was still 0-1. I was confident Oslo, the home team, would get back into this game so I entered the market. It wasn't to be, and they ended up losing 0-1 at home — a losing trade.
Lyngby v AC Horsens. A game in the Danish Super Liga. Lyngby was losing 0-1 at home. I decided to lay Horsens priced at 2.01, expecting Lyngby to get a goal back, and maybe a winner. They did score! Rather than hope or wish for another goal, I decided at the time to cash out for a profit.
The final trade of the weekend was Lokomotiv v Spartak Moscow. Spartak was winning 0-1 and priced at 1.55. I thought this was offering some value as I expected Lokomotiv to draw level. Well, it didn't go to plan, and in the end, Spartak won the game, and so it was a losing trade.
Overall Sunday ended up being a slightly profitable day with four wins and four losses.
I'll have to look back but I believe this is one of the most unsatisfactory weekends of trading since I started the blog. I'm not naive and recognise there's going to be times like this. I will stick with it and look at the longer-term outcome. The bank is in profit and still intact. Nobody said this was going to be easy, right?
I started the weekend off with £595.92
Weekend P&L -£16.60
Balance is now £579.32 (123% ROI since 1-August-19)
I’ve been chatting to some fellow traders in the past week or two and some have suggested using a points system rather than the £ amount. It might be more relevant to others if I use +/- points, so it’s something I’m considering. I'd like to hear your comments on this?
As I have said from the beginning, the purpose of my blog is for me to look back on for my own reasons, but if in addition to this it helps, or is enjoyable for others, then that's good to know.
International football is in the rear view mirror, and I'm looking forward to trading the domestic and European club competitions.
This week, aside from working my day job and trading sport, I've been considering my goals. I was listening to a podcast on setting goals and how it helps us to keep focused on what we want to achieve. This week I started jotting down some goals on this thing called "paper" with this fantastic item called a "pen". I don't want to drift from day to day, placing trades, recording the P&L with no objective or goal in mind. I'm convinced that if I carried on without a purpose, I might start to think of trading as a chore and lose interest in it.
Don't get me wrong; I'm enjoying the journey, but I'm someone who wants to work towards an objective. I do it in other areas of my life, so why not with my sports trading. Heck, starting this blog was a goal of mine.
So how did this week go?
As I write this post, the two trades seems a distant memory and rightfully so. Not the best of days.
Bodo/Glimt v Mjondalen
Bodo/Glimt, odds on favourite and showing some decent form at home against a side who have been struggling. Approaching the midway point of the second half the score is 0-0, although the home team have been dominant in the second half with 64 % of possession and two attempts on goal.
I decide to enter the market and oppose the current score.
It wasn't to be. The game finished 0-0, so this was a losing trade.
Lens v Auxerre
French Ligue 1
Lens was pre-match favourites priced around 1.80 against Auxerre who were 5.25. During the second half, the score was still 0-0. After analysing the in-play stats, I expected at least a goal in the second half, so I entered the market feeling confident.
As with the earlier game in Norway. The worst possible outcome. The game finished 0-0 and therefore another losing trade. What can I say, I managed to trade two games that both finished 0-0.
I closed the laptop down and went to bed, crying my eyes out. OK, maybe I didn't do that, but I did close the computer down. I wanted to prevent myself from discovering potential (hopeful?) trades in obscure places of the world with single figure market liquidity to "try" and make up the loss.
After yesterday losing day, I was still feeling hopeful of a positive week of trading. Talking to fellow sports traders on Twitter and Telegram helped me "get back on the horse" as they say.
Atletico v Bayern Leverkusen
Champions League group stage
I got fortunate with this trade. With the game poised at 0-0 in the second half, I entered the market, expecting a goal. The goal eventually arrived, but rather than cashing out; I decided to remove the liability to increase the profits if there was a second goal. If there were no further goals, it would be a scratch outcome. Either way, I wouldn't lose.
A few moments later, I was checking some other scores on my phone but inadvertently placed a second trade on this Atletico Madrid game. Suddenly I was in a negative situation if there was another goal. I had to react quickly and clicked the green cashout button. I locked in a profit regardless of the score, but with a reduced amount if there was a second goal.
As it happened, there were no further goals, so I won the trade. If I had not "thumbed" an additional trade into the market and reacted by cashing out, I would have had a scratch trade. I got lucky with this.
Preston v Leeds
Not much to tell regarding this trade but I believed Leeds would get something out of this match even when it was still 0-0 in the second half. Rather than backing Leeds, I entered a trade in the goals market. One goal would see a scratch trade, maybe a small profit, but two goals would be an even higher profit.
Well, the goals came late. Preston scoring in the 74th minute and then Leeds scored to make it 1-1 in the 87th minute. An excellent return for this winning trade.
Juventus v Lokomotiv
I entered the market, expecting Juventus to get back into the match when they were 0-1 down. The goal arrived too late in the game for me to make any real profit as the price only decreased down to my entry price; therefore, I made £0.01 after commission. A wins a win, or maybe I'll call it a scratch.
Another round of Champions League matches to trade.
Ajax v Chelsea
Champions League group stage.
I put this game on the TV in the second half. After some time, I believed there were goals in the game. I wasn't sure what team would score, so I entered the market opposing the current score.
Chelsea took the lead late in the second half, and as a result, this was a winning trade.
Bristol City v Charlton
Wow, talk about a late winner and a fantastic last-minute winning trade.
I had entered the market in the second half laying the draw with the score at 1-1. I don't tend to Lay The Draw (LTD) often, but I did for this match. I was prepared to accept the loss and even typed the negative amount into my Excel tracking sheet when the Flashscore audible sounded. I looked across to my other monitor to see Bristol City had scored in the 98th minute. Yes, that's in the eight-minute of injury time! What a way to win a trade.
Derby Country v Wigan
With the score still 0-0 in the second half, following my analysing of the in-play stats, I decided to oppose the current score late in the second half.
Talk about a day of late, winning trades. Derby scored in the 92nd minute. Like with the Bristol City game this evening, I won a trade in the final seconds of the match. Couldn't I believe my luck? (or shall I take credit for my match profiling skills?). Either way, a lovely end to the days trading.
Europa League action this evening.
Porto v Rangers
Something new for me. I have been doing some research and reading articles and media posts from fellow traders who trade in the first half of the matches. You've probably worked out by now I prefer to enter in the second half.
After some research, I entered the market in the first half expecting a goal before half time. Call it beginners luck or well planned, but either way, I won this trade when Porto scored in the 36th minute. I'm wondering if this something to look into more?
CSKA Moscow v Ferencvaros
Like with the Porto v Rangers game, after doing some pre-match research I decided to enter the market expecting at least a goal before half time.
Ah well, it didn't work out this time. The match was 0-0 at half time, so I lost this trade. But...
It wasn't over for me, as I returned to my second half trading method. Midway through the second half with the score still 0-0, I entered the market opposing the scoreline.
Farencvaros scored in the 86th minute, making it 0-1, and as a result, I won the (second) trade.
Sporting v Rosenborg
This was another first-half trade that I lost as it stayed 0-0 at half time. I was surprised as Sporting were pressing for a goal from the start.
One win from 3 first half trades. It's only a small sample size, but I'm not sure about this method yet. I will likely paper trade this for the next 20 or 30 trades, so I don't damage my bank.
Thursday ended with a small loss.
After an awful start, the midweek trading turned out to be profitable. I'm still considering what stake size to use starting in November. I have a week left to come to a decision.
I read a comment received from Mark in my last blog post asking if I will share the odds I enter for my trades. I'll think about this for my future posts, but in general, I trade the second half of the games when odds in the correct score, draw or goals market has reduced due to time decay. Thanks for your comment, Mark.
I started the week at £572.90.
P&L for the week +£23.02
Total balance now sits at £595.92. An ROI of 129% since 1-August-19
With the little amount of mid-week trading, I've combined my sports trading results for the full week into one post.
This week marked my 100th trade since I started the SportsTraydor blog. Where has that time gone? The 100th trade was between Leicester City and Burnley on Saturday afternoon.
I know for sure that sports trading isn't a "get rich quick!" scheme. Some may win big on the odd occasion and get lucky, but for me and my style, I'm looking for a slow but a long term and consistent return. Some may call this boring!
If I can return a consistent 15% ROI on my bank, month on month, over a year, I would be thrilled. Imagine that compounded! When I used to trade the financial markets (in my spare time), I would have dreamed of 15% returns, month on month — still, some way to go on this journey to see how my returns will look in the long term.
I'm regularly looking for ways to find comparisons between the financial markets and the sports trading exchanges, especially when it comes to risk vs reward. Unlike the financial markets, sports trading usually has to deal with time decay which adds a challenge when it comes to finding my entry and exit points.
While looking back at my trading records, I'm noticing that if I was to enter a little later in the second half of the football matches, I might obtain more value. On the flip side to that, there's time's I'll miss out on some winning trades, depending on the scenario, and feel like I've left money on the table. A mindset matter to overcome, but I'm still working on it. At the same time, don't want to disrupt what I've returned since August.
So how did my trading go this week?
France v Turkey
The score was still 0-0 late into the second half of this Euro 2020 qualifier. After reviewing the stats, I calculated how much I was willing to risk and then opposed the current score.
Giroud scored for France in the 76th minute. As a result of this, I started the week off with a winning trade. Turkey went on to score in the 82nd minute with the game ending 1-1.
No further mid-week trades.
Clermont v Rodez
French Ligue 2
At half-time, the score was level at 0-0. Looking at the in-play details and the pre-match stat that Rodez has not had a clean sheet in their last nine games, was encouraging so I entered a trade expecting a goal.
Rodez, the underdog, to my surprise, took the lead in the 77th minute. A winning trade to start the weekend.
Tranmere v Southend
English League 1
A game I profiled earlier in the day and marked it as one to look at in the second half.
At half time, odds-on favourites Tranmere were losing 0-1 at home. Looking at Southend's form, with a lot of losses away from home and struggling to keep clean sheets, I felt Tranmere would get back into the game. Not only this but another stat I read is that Tranmere has been involved in a lot of games that produce more than 2.5 goals. I decided to enter a trade midway through the second half and oppose the current score.
The goal arrived late in the second half and a winning trade.
Two profitable trades on Friday
Spartak Moscow v Ruben Kazan
Russian Premier League
Kazan has been struggling away from home recently, so I was surprised to see the score was 0-0 at half time. In the first half, there were seven shots on target between the two teams, so the game seemed lively.
Spartak Moscow has not kept a clean sheet in their last 13 games, and Ruben Kazan games seem to be involved in games that produce over 2.5 goals. Surely there was a goal in this game? I opposed the current score.
Well, that didn't go to plan. Surprisingly neither side could score and the game finished 0-0. A losing trade to start the day.
Chelsea v Newcastle
English Premier League
I decided to get involved late in this game when I noticed Chelsea were still level, playing at home, to Newcastle. It was clear that Chelsea was on top in the match, pressing forward to score a winning goal, so I entered a trade, expecting a goal.
The goal arrived in the 73rd minute. Alonso was on the score sheet for Chelsea. A winning trade.
Leicester v Burnley
English Premier League.
This trade was my 100th since I started the SportsTraydor blog.
Late in the second half, the score was level at 1-1. I looked at the stats, as well as listening to the pundits on Sky Sports Soccer Saturday, and I felt another goal was coming. Leicester had 65% of the possession and 8 attempts on goal in the 2nd half. I apposed the current score, expecting at least one more goal before the final whistle.
Goal! Tielemans scored it for Leicester in the 74th minute. My 100th trade was a winning trade!
Bournemouth v Norwich
English Premier League
"This game has goals in it!" - according to the Sky Sports pundits.
While looking at the information available, I was also expecting at least a goal. Bournemouth has not kept a clean sheet in their last six games. Norwich hasn't had a clean sheet in their previous nine games. When I saw it was still 0-0 at half time, I decided to oppose the current score.
Well, that didn't work out. The game finished 0-0. I was annoyed I lost this trade, but I felt I profiled the game well. The stats and information I had available leaned towards a goal in this game. We work with probabilities in trading - but nothing is 100% guaranteed, so I have to take this one on the chin.
Ankaragucu v Besiktas
Turkish Super Lig
Oh, the outcome of this trade was annoying.
The team streaks presented facts such as Ankaragucu unable to keep a clean sheet in their last four games, games have been producing over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
At half time it was 0-0. Like with the Bournemouth v Norwich game, I felt there would be a goal in the second half.
After 74 mins Ankaragucu had a red card. Besiktas the pre-match odds on favourites had an extra man for the last 15 minutes of the game - but they couldn't score. The game finished 0-0, so I lost this trade.
This one hurt as it was my last trade on a Saturday. It also meant I ended Saturday with a negative P&L. Sometimes I consider finding more games to trade to make up for the loss, but I walked away from my laptop and made sure not to force any trades. I'm not saying being this disciplined was easy though!
Sydney FC v Wellington
It was an early start to my Sunday. While my kids were playing on their iPads and doing some drawing, and my wife was at work, I watched Sydney v Wellington on BT Sport.
Sydney was the pre-match favourites and leading 1-0 at half time, but Wellington has looked promising, and I could see them getting back into the game. I layed the Under 1.5 goals, expecting a goal.
As I walked back into the lounge, stepping over my sleeping dog (I have a Cockapoo) with a fresh cup of coffee in my hand, Wellington scored in the 69th minute just as I had predicted. A winning trade and an excellent way to start Sunday, after a negative day yesterday.
Manchester United v Liverpool
English Premier League.
After some family commitments at lunchtime, I was back home ready to watch the big game of the day. If I'm honest, I wasn't expecting to trade the game, but when I saw United were beating an in-form Liverpool side who usually score, I decided to oppose the current score.
The goal arrived late in the game. I reckon overall it was a goal Liverpool deserved. Man United was, without doubt, the better side in the first half, but Liverpool towards the end were improving, and in fact, they might have got a second near the end as United seemed nervous. My second winning trade of the day and my final trade of the week.
Looking at the P&L, it was a "green" week but to be honest; the numbers are not exactly flattering. I'm sticking to stakes between 1.0 and 1.5% of the bank (give or take) which might be why the returns have been low. I'm going to stay with it for October and then evaluate. Maybe I will increase the stakes, so they are between 2.0 and 2.5% of the bank instead.
The week started with a balance of £558.40.
P&L for the week +£14.50
The balance is now at £572.90. An ROI of 120% since 1-August-19.
120%! Not bad. I can't complain, although for some reason I feel like I'm leaving money on the table based on when I enter and exit a trade.
I didn't write a mid-week post due to the amount of trades I placed. This was mostly due to International football being played and other commitments outside of trading.
I'll start with the mid-week trades for the record.
Sunderland v Grimsby
Sunderland was losing 0-1 after 59 minutes, but I was expecting more goals. I entered the trade mid-way through the second half. The goal came in the 68th minute, and as a result, this was a winning trade. Sunderland went on to win the game 3-2 in the end.
Netherlands v N. Ireland
I watched this game on TV and was surprised the score was still 0-0 mid-way through the second half. Therefore I entered the market, expecting at least a goal before the final whistle. I was a little shocked it was N. Ireland who broke the deadlock, but I didn't care, as all I needed was a goal to win the trade. In the end, the Netherlands pulled it back to 3-1. This trade is an example of why I like to trade the goals market and not back or lay specific teams.
Only a couple of small wins during the week, but hey a win is a win right?
Czech Republic v England
I'm sure everyone knows what happened in this game. I decided to enter the market in the second half when the score was still 1-1. Of course, I wanted England to go on and win the match, but I thought the Czech's also had a chance to win it, especially with the way England have been playing recently. I, therefore, opposed the current score heading into the final stage of the match.
As we now know, the Czech Republic scored and won the game 2-1, and I won my trade.
Turkey v Albania
A game I shortlisted earlier in the day as a reminder to keep an eye on. During the second half, the score was still 0-0. I kept an eye on the stats to see if there was an angle for me to enter a trade. Turkey's recent home form looked good, and so I felt there would be a goal in the game. I entered a trade opposing the current scoreline late in the second half.
I had to wait until the very end for this trade to work out. A goal in the 90th minute! A winning trade and an excellent start to the weekend.
Portsmouth v Gillingham
OK, this was just a stupid trade. I admit to myself that I didn't follow my rules, and I rushed into this trade. I didn't look at my trading plan to confirm if this game met my criteria. I based it all on gut feeling, and as a result, it was a losing trade. I have to learn from this!
Liechtenstein v Armenia
Looking at the in-play stats, plus the recent form for both teams, I decided to back the draw in the final stages of this game. The score was 1-1, and neither side looked threatening in attack. A negative Risk: Reward, but I "felt" confident no further goal was coming. I guess like the earlier Portsmouth game I was moving away from my trading rules and although the game ended in my favour, finishing 1-1, it could be said I got away with winning this trade.
Huesca v Racing Santander
La Liga 2
A game I shortlisted earlier in the day. Huesca were the clear favourites with the market makers before the game. During the second half, I saw that Huesca was trailing 0-1 at home. After reviewing the in-play stats, I entered the market late in the second half, apposing the current scoreline.
As expected, Huesca did score, making it 1-1 and therefore a winning trade. It was close though, as the goal didn't come until the 96th minute! It was my only trade on Sunday and the final trade of the weekend.
I'm not a fan of trading international football, but I'll stick with it.
This weekend I've been entering trades into the market later than I have been doing previously. I may miss a few trades due to this, but I'm trying to find the right balance on when to enter and what provides the best value. That's the key word there - VALUE!
I started the week with £528.60
The current bank is now at £558.40 (+114% ROI since 1-August-19)
Here's how my sports trading went this weekend.
Fenerbahce v Antalysport
Turkish Super Lig
Fenerbahce were favourites in this match but were losing 0-1 at home. After analysing the stats, Fenerbahce had ten attempts on goal in the first half and was looking to level the scoreline. I decided to lay the under 1.5 goals market.
A losing trade. Fenerbahce couldn't find the goal they needed and Antalysport didn't extend there lead.
Lorient v AC Ajaccio
French Ligue 2
I watched this game online and was confident there would be a goal. In the second half, I opposed the score, but it wasn't to be as my pre-determined stop loss was hit, and therefore, it was a losing trade.
Not a great start to the weekend. Two losing trades.
Bayern Munich v Hoffenheim
Bayern Munich, after their 7-2 thrashing of Tottenham in the week, was losing at home. Surely they would come back and win this? I decided to oppose the current score and felt confident in doing so.
Well, as expected they did score next, and so it was a winning trade. What was surprising though is that Hoffenheim scored a second and went on to win the game 1-2.
Swansea v Stoke
This wasn't a game I shortlisted earlier in the day, but I saw the score on my monitor and looked at the recent form between the two sides, so I expected another goal before the final whistle. I entered a trade, opposing the current score, in the final stages of the match.
90th-minute goal!!! Pretty pleased when the goal arrived. It's a satisfying feeling when you win a trade so late in the game.
Odds v Valarenga
Odds were odds on favourites for this game. (You see what I did there?) They found themselves behind 0-1 in the final stages of the game. I decided to watch the match online to get a feel of how the game was being played. It was clear to me that Odds were pushing for the equaliser, so I decided the lay under 1.5 goals.
Well, I was made to sweat over this game. Like with the earlier match between Swansea and Stoke, a goal came in the final seconds. A great strike from outside the area from the Odds player. The final result was 1-1 and a winning trade.
A successful days trading helped to make up for the loss on Friday.
Man City v Wolves
Not much more to say about this trade other than when I saw the score was still 0-0 heading into the later stages of the game, I expected City to get a winner.
I was surprised when in fact it was Wolves who scored the goal and then another late in the game to win 0-2 away to Man City. A winning trade and no doubt a good result for the Liverpool fans too.
Overall a productive weekend. It started poorly on Friday, but my trades on Saturday and Sunday helped turn things around.
Started the weekend with £509.20
Weekend P&L was +£19.40
Balance is now £528.60 (+103% ROI since 1-August-19)
A new week, a new month and so I’m putting the loss from the weekend behind me.
Monday and Tuesday - No Trading.
Genk v Napoli
After some crazy results in the Champions League last night I wasn’t too sure it was a good idea to enter the markets for tonight’s games. But you couldn’t stop me, and so this was one game I decided to trade.
The score was level at half time. A quick look at the stats and it seems Napoli have either won or lost away from home in recent times, and so I was expecting a goal, regardless if they score or concede. Looking at Genk's form, they have had just the one 0-0 in the last ten home games. This pre-match form along with plenty of attempts on goal in the first half, means I was expected goals.
Well, not the confidence booster I was looking for after the weekend. My pre-determined stop price was met, and so I had to stay disciplined and exit the trade for a loss. I'm glad I did though as the game ended up staying 0-0.
Barcelona v Inter
No problems trading this one. I was confident there would be goals in this game especially when I notice Barcelona losing at home. Either they're going to score or concede while pushing forward for the goal. Therefore, I opposed the current score.
This trade worked out well — Suarez with the equaliser in the second half and a winning trade.
Wednesday finished one win and one loss.
This trade was a bizarre one. Late on Wednesday night I shortlisted a Korean K-League game. The game was starting at 8 am in the morning. I took the kids to school, returned home and made a cup of coffee then sat down in from of my laptop to look at the stats. Here's what happened.
Gyeongnam v Jeonbuk
Jeonbuk sits second in the K-League and has an impressive away record. At 0-0, I felt this was a game to get involved in as I expect goals. I enter the trade, opposing the score, and sit back and let the market do it’s thing.
It wasn't long until the goal arrived and there was a nice win to start the day! Well, at least that’s what I thought!
I was a little confused as the Betfair market for the under 0.5 goals wasn't suspended or even closed. If people were not aware of the current score, they could still trade the market even though the score was 0-1. I felt OK about it as my trade was matched before the goal and I had won the trade.
After the game, I noticed that the winning funds were not in my account. After searching around my Betfair account, I saw they had flagged the trade as "void". Huh? Why? I posted a tweet to Betfair Customer Care.
I browsed social media and saw other sports traders tweeting they were having the same issue. Dionysios @bettingMayhem was experiencing the same issue. It was crazy!
Why was I being punished because Betfair were not managing the markets correctly and more to the point, how was my trade "unfair" when I entered the market before a goal had been scored?
I sent Betfair a Direct Message and provided them with supporting information such as the time of my trade, and the transaction ID. I then waited....and waited and continued to wait.
A few hours later, I was checking my Betfair account and, to my surprise, Betfair has now given me my winnings on the K-League game. I guess they admitted they were being unreasonable and honoured my winning trade. So, in the end it worked out - but damn, it does raise some eyebrows. What if I had not contacted them?
Moral of the story - Make sure I take a screenshot and keep a record of the transaction ID in case I need it as a reference!
Not many trades this week as I was away Monday and Tuesday.
I started the week with: £504.27
Mid-week P&L +£4.93 (Woah! you slow down there Craig!)
Current Balance is now: £509.20 (+95% ROI since 1-August-19)
Oh, one last thing. Betfair contacted me about changing my plan with them. I chose the "Basic package" which means I now pay 2% commission instead of the 5%. I don't get all the free spins, this offer or that offer - but I prefer to spend less commission.
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.