I must admit I enjoy trading on a Friday. I think it's because I break down my sessions into mid-week trading and then weekend trading. Friday, I guess, brings hope and excitement to a weekend of sport and trading.
My weekend of trading sport online will be shorter than usual as I'm heading off to enjoy some sunshine, sit on a beach and drink some cold cocktails with the family. I might even find a bar to watch the football, but I won't be trading.
Jeonbuj v Ulsan Hyundai
Although the score was 0-0 in this K-League encounter, both sides were looking for a goal. Jeonbuk were favourites and had three shots on target. Ulsan Hyundai (Hmm, do the players get a free Hyundai?) had two shots on target, so a combined total of 5 shots on goal but still neither team could find the net.
At Halftime, I decided to Lay the "Under 1.5 goals" market, anticipating a goal in the second half, and as it turned out, the home team scored in the 50th minute. I waited for the Betfair odds to calm down and settle before I thought about cashing out, but I then decided to stay in with this trade but have a price I would exit for a small profit. If there were a second goal, and the way the game was being played, I believed there could be, it would be a full return on my stake.
Two minutes later, in the 52nd minute, the home team scored again and went 2-0 up. I was correct in my judgement to not be so keen to cash out and instead stay in the market with a manual (and mental) stop-loss price to get out if there wasn't further goals. A nice winning trade.
It was an excellent start to the weekend. I wish I entered with a more significant stake now, but I wasn't too sure on the history and stats of these teams in the K-League. If it was a more familiar league, I might well have increased my stakes.
Randers v FC Copenhagen
I shortlisted this match as a possible trade because Copenhagen sits at the top of the Danish league against Randers. I wasn't going to get involved from the start but looked for an angle to trade the second half.
In the first half Copenhagen had all of the possession and four shots on target. Randers, the home side didn't have a single shot on target. Surprisingly the score remained 0-0. Reviewing my trading plan, like with the previous K-League game today, I made the decision to enter the trade and Lay "Under 1.5 goals". I was expecting a goal from either side which would lock in a break even trade or maybe a small profit. If there was no goal within the first 20-25 mins, I was planning on exiting the trade with a small loss.
The second half started brightly. Within the first 10 minutes there was a goal mouth scramble, 3 shots on target in 20 seconds, but neither side could hit the back of the net. After 20 odd minutes there was still no goals. Sticking to the rules in my trading plan, I was disciplined enough to exit this trade with a small loss. It's tough having to exit when you see the red negative numbers on the Betfair screen, but I know there's plenty of times when the returns will be profitable. I felt I still made a good decision to enter this trade based on the stats and the way the game was being played. It just wasn't meant to be.
As it turned out Copenhagen scored the winner in the 90th minute but I was out of this trade a long time ago.
Huddersfield v Fulham
Okay this trade was risky. I placed this trade using the Betfair app on my mobile phone to show a friend how I was trading football matches. The game was live on TV in front of us, and he was asking "how do you trade the match?"
I don't like to trade by using my mobile phone. I know some people might be OK with this, but I prefer to be sat in front of my monitors to trade. Also, doing this on a Friday night, socialising with a friend, not 100% concentrating on the game wasn't the best thing to do.
I still ensured I profiled the game before I entered a trade at half time. I looked at the stats and had watched the first half and believed there were goals in the game. Huddersfield is low in confidence while Fulham, under Scott Parker, is expected to do well this season and I couldn't see the game ending goalless. So, like with the earlier trades today I layed the "under 1.5 goals" market getting odds of 1.65.
So, I'm there glued to the TV with my friend sat next to me. I explained to him all I need is a goal to at least lock in a small profit. If there are two goals, then the profits will be more significant. He was intrigued by watching the Betfair app lighting up the latest prices in front of us.
Six minutes into the second have Fulham scored to make it 0-1. Like with today’s K-League game, I chose to stay in for a little longer and see if there was likely to be a second goal for maximum profit. I was still staying disciplined and set myself a mental stop loss to exit if the were no further goals and the odds declined.
As it happened, the price never got close to where I was planning to exit for a small loss. Huddersfield equalised in the 57th minute. The goal was only just scored with the ball creeping over the goal line. The referee was alerted to this by the watch they all wear now. Goal-line technology came to Huddersfield's rescue, but more importantly for me, it was the second goal of the match, and I cashed out with maximum profits.
Very happy with this result. Fulham went on to win the game 1-2. Plenty of boos from the Huddersfield fans at the end of the game.
Overall a decent start to the weekend. Three trades. Two wins and one loss. Let's see what Saturday brings.
Aston Villa v Bournemouth
English Premier League
After dashing around doing some errands before I go away tomorrow, I arrived home and scanned the list of halftime scores. I noticed Aston Villa were losing 0-2 at home to Bournemouth. After examining the stats, it was apparent Aston Villa were seemingly unfortunate to be losing the match. They had 60% possession and the same number of shots on target as Bournemouth.
I chose to Lay the "Under 3.5 goals" and get out of the trade midway through the half if there was no goal. This approach of trading has become more apparent these past couple of days and helps keep my loss amount lower than my profits and maintain a positive Risk: Reward ratio.
As the second half progressed, Aston Villa produced the majority of possession, but in the end, there was no goal, and so kept my discipline and at the 67th-minute exit for a loss with the score still 0-2.
Something I'm aware of is when using stop losses and exiting the trade before the end of the game; a goal is still possible. This is what happened as Aston Villa scored a goal in the 71st minute, just four minutes after I was out of this trade. Oh well. You win some, and you lose some.
Mechelen v Cercle Brugge
Belgium Jupiler League
Mechelen was the home favourites. At halftime they found themselves 0-1 down although having 65% of the possession. Now granted they didn't have a shot on goal, so I reviewed their home form to see if it was a game I should enter. At home, they've won 4 of their last five games. Cercle Brugge, on the other hand, had drawn one and lost four away from home. I expected Mechelen, as the home favourites to get back into the game in the second half. I layed "Under 2.5 goals" and set myself a stop-loss should there be no goals.
It took 15 mins until I felt relaxed as a goal came in the 60th minute. Mechelen, as I expected, brought the game level. I stayed in the market, with a price in mind (and written down as a reminder) to get out if I didn't believe another goal was coming.
Mechelen scored their second of the game 6 minutes later and took the lead 2-1. This was an excellent trade. Mechelen went on to win the game 3-1, so I was happy with the way I called this game.
Belenenses v Benfica
Portuguese Primeira Liga
I wasn't expecting to get involved in this trade at the start. Benfica were heavy odds on favourites with odds around 1.14, and so offered no value. I thought they'd be winning this easily at halftime and I wouldn't have an angle to get involved.
Surprisingly the score was 0-0 at halftime. I thought "I need to get involved". I scanned the stats from the first half and noticed Benfica only had 48% possession, but they had created eleven goal attempts. I was confident Benfica would get a goal in the second half, but rather than backing Benfica there could well be an upset here, so I traded the goals market if for any reason Belenenses scored. I was sure there would be goals, though.
I layed "under 1.5 goals" and then managed the trade depending on if there was a goal or not.
As expected, Benfica scored in the 59th minute. This was excellent news. I made a note of a price I would exit with at least a scratch trade if there were no more goals. That way, I can let the trade run and the profits increase. I stayed in the trade to see if Benfica or Belenenses would get a goal.
As the game progressed, Benfica was dominating the game, but it was getting close towards the end of the game, and the price was dropping down towards the odds I said I would get out for a scratch (break-even) trade. A few moments later, I adhered to my plan and clicked the Betfair cash out button for a scratch trade. No win, but no loss. It worked out I made a small loss by the time Betfairs cash out button had submitted the order, but it was pennies, so nothing to lose sleep over.
As it happened, Benfica did score a second, but it was not until the 92nd minute in injury time. I was well out of the market at this stage with a scratch trade, or as I said, a tiny loss. I was happy with this though because I was disciplined to exit at the stop-loss which will protect my bank in the long term.
That's all the trading I'm doing for the weekend. No more until I get back from my holidays. Overall, I'm satisfied with how the weekend went. I sense I'm starting to manage my trades better, cutting my losses and finding ways to let my trades run and increase my profits.
I'm still considering hiding my balance on screen in Betfair and review the P&L less often. I mentioned in a previous post that sometimes reviewing the P&L on a daily or weekly basis can have a negative effect on the mindset. For now though, let's see where I'm at.
At the start of the weekends trading it was at £262.34. Slightly above the starting balance.
Current balance is now £286.59 which is an ROI of +10.2% on the starting bank since I started this blog at the beginning of August.
I'm happy with a 10% return after a couple of weeks. It's early days though and I'm sure there's more highs and lows around the corner.
Now I need to go and pack some clothes for my trip!
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.