It was the last week of trading in January, so I was determined to finish on a high.
Bournemouth v Arsenal
I was scalping from the start of the match. If I feel the game is heating up or there’s a dangerous free-kick near the area I was planning on exiting the markets.
There was an early goal after 4 minutes that caught me out, so I continued to scalp the market before exiting with a small loss. I was pleased with my methods because I didn’t panic after the early goal and reacted calmly.
Once the game started getting lively, I knew I should exit altogether and not be greedy to make up the rest of the remaining loss.
Arsenal won the match 1-2 and progress to the next round.
Regensburg v Hannover
Both sides have scored on average less than one goal a game in the first half. Noticing this stat, I decided to back the under goals market from the kick-off and trade out as the price decreases over time. If there’s an early goal, then I’ll manage the trade by following my trading plan.
It was still 0-0 after 25 minutes when I decided to cash out for a win.
The final score was 1-0 to Regensburg.
Luton v Derby
Like with the game in Germany, I decided to back the under goals market again and trade out if the match is 0-0 after some time.
The markets were sticky and only moved a few ticks in the first ten minutes, so I decided to remove the liability from the trade.
It worked out to be a scratch trade as the final score was Luton 3-2 Derby, so the matched finished over the 2.5 goals.
Porto v Gil Vicente
I decided to do some first half scalping and made a small profit.
Stuttgart v Heidenheim
An early kick-off. I forgot about it until I checked my shortlist of matches to trade and realised.
Stuttgart were clear favourites, but neither side has scored that many in the first half this season. The stats say that Stuttgart scores around 0.5 goals (on average) in the first half when playing at home.
I decided to back the under goals market from kick-off.
I exited the trade for a profit after 25 minutes, not getting too greedy, in case of a goal. I’m glad I did as Stuttgart scored not long afterwards in the 32nd minute. A good start to the day.
Kiel v SV Darmstadt
This was another trade backing the under goals market from kick-off.
I was moments away from cashing out, and the "suspended" notice appeared on the Betfair exchange when a goal went in. Even though there was a goal, I earned a small profit as I had built up enough from drip-feeding some orders back into the market to remove my liability.
St Johnstone v Celtic
Scottish Premier League
Celtic was winning 0-3 at half-time, so I felt they might sit back and not press for a fourth goal, so I decided to back the under goals market for a quick scalp.
I was in and out of the market in ten minutes and earned a profit.
Three winning trades this evening.
Hamburg v Nurnberg
Hamburg, when playing at home, have only scored or conceded in the first half 37% of the time. With a statistic like this, I decided to back the under goals market from the kick-off.
After the first goal went in, I decided to exit with a small loss and not to risk more of a loss if either team score another goal.
I’m glad I did as Hamburg made it 2-0 not long after. The game was a lot more attacking than I anticipated. I’m happy to have got away with a small loss in this trade. It feels like a small win.
Hamburg was leading 2-0 at half time, so I went back in and scalped the goals market at the start of the second half. That didn’t work out so well either when there was a goal after 51 mins that caught me out.
Nice v Lyon
Coupe de France
Another match I entered, trading the under goals market in the first half.
I exited the trade early, with a small profit, as the markets were not moving and I could see someone (or a group of people) lumping on £10,000 into the market to hold the price from progressing further. When I see that happening in the markets I give it a moment to see if it’s someone trying to fool the market, but it was left there for some time, so I decided to exit early and leave it alone.
Lyon scored in the 15th minute, so I entered the market again for a quick scalp after the market overreacted to the goal. I was in the market for no more than 4 minutes.
The final day of the month has arrived. Whether you agree with it or not, Brexit is at 11 pm today, and finally, it’s a transfer deadline day in the UK. I must admit I’m not a fan of how Sky promote this day, dressing up in yellow and all that craziness to mark this occasion. It’s over the top for me.
Eindhoven v Graafshap
I felt this was a match I expected to start slowly, so I backed the under goals market.
I exited out of the trade for a profit after 20 minutes.
Excelsior v NEC Breda
Another match I expected to start slowly and another profitable trade before a goal went in around the 30th minute.
I started the week with £832.55
The balance is now £854.34
I've now updated the monthly report which is here. I don't like to calculate the total amount until the last day of the month but I'm somewhat pleasantly surprised with this months returns.
I’m now going to take a week off from trading the football. It's been my intention to have a week away, regardless of the outcome of my earnings in January. I believe having time away is healthy so I can recharge the batteries. I’m calling it my mid-season break!
I’ll be back trading, placing those back and lay orders in the markets next Saturday the 8th of February.
After a couple of weeks of negative returns, it was time to put things back on track. Before this weekend I was still on target to achieve my monthly goal of 10-15%, but it’s going to be closer than I’d like.
Armed with a couple of updated trading methods, I was ready for the weekend ahead.
My staking plan is to use between 1-1.5% of the current trading bank balance.
Utrecht v Den Haag
In previous matches, both sides appear to be involved in games with at least one or more goals. Four of the last five home games for Utrecht produced over 1.5 goals. Looking at Den Haag’s away form, they are the same.
Anticipating goals and a win for either side I opened an order in the market to lay the draw in the first half.
Utrecht took the lead in the 16th minute. They went on to win 4-0 — a winning trade.
Osasuna v Levante
A mid-table La Liga clash between two sides that have drawn two games from the last ten combined. After analysing the stats further and looking at the odds to see if there was any value, I opened an order to lay the draw.
It was 0-0 at half-time. I stuck with it into the second half.
Time was running out and sticking with my trading plan. I exited the trade for a controlled loss.
I continued to analyse the game and felt there was a goal coming, so I entered an order to back over 0.5 goals in the final stages of the game. It worked out as Osasuna scored twice winning 2-0. Overal a losing trade though.
A couple of over 1.5 goal trades this evening.
Caen v Ajaccio Ligue 2 was a win
Nice v Rennes Ligue 1 was a win
I was out with the family, so I was unable to write up my comments as I traded these matches.
Wolfsburg v Hertha Berlin German Bundesliga (o/u 1.5 goals) Win
Southampton v Tottenham FA Cup (o.u 0.5 goals) Win
Valencia v Barcelona La Liga (o/u 0.5 goals) Win
Marseille v Angers Ligue 1 (o/u 1.5 goals) Lost
Fenerbahce v Basaksehir Super Lig (o/u 1.5 goals) Win
Sparta Rotterdam v Sittard Eredivisie (o/u 2.5 goals) Win
Willem II v Zwolle Eredivisie (o/u 1.5 goals] was a loss
Crotone v Spezia Serie B (o/u 2.5 goals) a win
Famalicao v Santa Clara Primeira League (o/u 1.5 goals) was a loss
PSV v FC Twente Eredivisie (o/u 2.5 goals) was a win
Leverkusen v Dusseldorf Bundesliga (o/u 2.5 goals) was a win
Lille v PSG Ligue 1 (o/u 2.5 goals) was a win
Antwerp v Waragem Jupiler League (o/u 3.5 goals) was a win
The past few weeks have been a challenge. I need to analyse my trades better and see what my strengths and weaknesses are. I know many traders go through periods of self-doubt, and it’s a mindset thing when you don’t see the expected positive returns.
My strike rate seems to be OK as I win more than I lose, but I question my methods if I’m drip-feeding orders into the market. A goal arrives when only one order is matched, the earnings are minimal, but then the losses are more significant and therefore, the risk to reward ratio is skewed.
I’m still here and enjoying the challenge though, and overall I’m positive and feel good about the future.
Something else I’m going to start looking at is trading tennis. After all, it's called “SportsTraydor” not “FootballTraydor”. I recall when I was trading Forex, I understood that you had to diversify, so trading football and another sport will help me to achieve this.
I started the weekend with £833.96
The balance is now £832.55
Just one more week remains to trade the markets in January.
I had some issues with the application I use to write my notes, so I wasn’t able to write many details about my trades on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On Thursday, I introduced some new trading methods into my trading “toolbox”. After a couple of weeks of paper trading, I decided to start using them with minimal stakes. If I feel comfortable using them and the results look positive, I’ll use my standard stakes.
Three matches made the shortlist today. Only two met the criteria in-play.
Atalanta v Spal
With the match 1-0 at half-time, I expected at least another goal if not two, so I placed an order to back the overs goal market. Time for a cuppa tea while I wait for the minutes to progress and my orders to be matched.
Spal pulled it back level just one minute after my first order was matched. Seeing as my other orders were now cancelled, I decided to remove the liability to eke out a little more profit rather than cash out. Worse case is this will be a scratch-free trade.
Well, I didn’t have to wait long. Spal made it 1-2 six minutes later.
WBA v Stoke
West Brom is fighting for promotion but was 0-1 down at half-time. I decided to place some orders in the over goals market expecting West Brom to get back into this game.
Well, I didn’t see that happening. West Brom, at home, pushing for the title, odds-on favourite with the market makers - but lost and didn’t even get on the score sheet.
A disappointing loss.
I had issues accessing my laptop’s notes, so all I can do is record the trades from my Excel tracking sheet.
Macclesfield v Crewe o/u 1.5 goals = Win
Sheff United v Man City o/u 1.5 goals = Win
Aston Villa v Watford o/u 1.5 goals = Win
Everton v Newcastle o/u 1.5 goals = Win
Everton v Newcastle was a crazy finish. Newcastle scored two goals in the 94th and 96th minute to equalise 2-2.
Like yesterday I couldn't access my app where I keep my notes, so I wasn't able to document the trades in more detail. Here’s a record though — not a great day of trading.
OFI Crete v Olympiakos o/u 1.5 goals = Scratch
Charlton v Fulham o/u 1.5 goals = Loss
Man United v Burnley o/u 0.5 goals = Loss
A bit of tweaking and performed some upgrades and I now have access to the application where I keep my trading notes.
I’ve been paper trading some methods over the past few weeks, and I’m now going to introduce them into my “toolbox” using minimal stakes. Therefore I don’t expect to see any significant returns until I increase my stakes in the future.
Asteras v Panionios
Greek Super League
With the score 1-0 at half time, I had a feeling there would be another goal or more in this game, so I layed Under 2.5 goals.
Asteras made it 2-0 after 53 minutes, but there were no further goals. The result was a scratch trade.
Lamia v PAOK
Greek Super League
I thought PAOK would go on to win this match easily, but they only managed to win 0-1. As a result, I lost out trading the over/under goals market.
Galatasaray v Rizespor
This was an LTD trade. Although many football traders use this method, I’ve spent some time, since around Christmas I would say, studying variations of how to trade this method. This was a trade using small stakes as I look to tweak and modify my selection criteria, my entry and exit and finalise my risk management.
The trade was a winning trade which was good to see. Again, nothing significant while I use small stakes for the time being.
Aris v Xanthi
Greek Super League
Like with the Galatasaray match, another LTD trade as I continue to test my methods. This was also a profitable trade.
Antwerp v Kortrik
An LTD trade but the away underdog scored first, so the odds only went up just above my entry price. Fearing Antwerp were likely to equalise making it 1-1 I decided to cash out and earn a small profit, although would look more like a break-even trade.
Antwerp did make it 1-1 before full-time.
Wolves v Liverpool
A winning LTD trade. Firmino scoring to make it 1-2 within the last ten minutes.
Leonesa v Atletico Madrid
Copa Del Rey
This was a surprising scoreline at the end of regular time. It was 1-1 before going into extra time. I was trading the goals market in this game and came away with a scratch trade or a small loss due to the Betfair seven seconds delay.
Leonesa went on to win in extra time and progress!!
On Monday I started with the balance at £839.42
The balance is now at £833.96
A week to go before the end of the month. I'm still aiming towards a 10-15% ROI this month.
Friday night results.
FC Oss v Cambuur Eerste Divisie was a losing trade when Cambuur took an early lead.
Zwolle v Utrecht Eerste Divisie was a first-half trade that I won.
Excelsior v Telstar Eerste Divisie was another wining trade in the first half. Only one of my orders matched, so the profits were minimal.
Frosinone v Pordenone Serie B. A significant loss for me in this trade, trading the under/over 2.5 goals market.
I was feeling tired this evening; I shouldn't have traded.
After a decent night's sleep, I feel refreshed and ready to go after yesterday.
Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets
The stats looked towards goals. At half-time, Melbourne was winning 1-0. I believed there would be at least another goal, so I placed some orders into the over 2.5 goals market.
The second goal arrived in the 63rd minute. Only one of my orders was matched, so I removed the liability to create a risk-free trade. The match finished 2-0 and therefore a scratch trade.
Rotherham v Bristol Rovers
The score was 0-0 at half-time. I backed over 2.5 goals at the start of the second half.
Rotherham scored in the 52nd and 53rd minute, and I cashed out for a small win.
Rotherham won 3-0.
Real Madrid v Sevilla
I shortlisted this game but was astonished when the score was still 0-0, and I saw you could get around 6.0 odds for over 2.5 goals after 50 mins gone.
I placed a couple of orders to back over 2.5 goals.
The odds went up to 9.0 before Real Madrid scored in the 60th minute. Sevilla then scored in the 65th minute.
The match finished 2-1.
This trade was a decent win after cashing out after the first goal. I wish I left it open for longer!! Hindsight is a beautiful thing.
Brighton v Aston Villa
Brighton was leading 1-0 at half time. I reviewed the recent form and studied the goal markets and decided to back the over 2.5 goals market during the second half.
A winning trade when Aston Villa made it 1-1. That's how the game ended.
Man City v Crystal Palace
Palace was winning 0-1 at half-time away to Man City. The odds on the over 2.5 goals was too low to enter straight away as the market was expecting a goal at least.
I entered over 2.5 goals after 55 mins but decided to stick with my trading rule and exited for a small loss around 78-80 minutes. Moments later Man City scored two goals to take the lead 2-1. Then Crystal Palace brought it back to 2-2.
Wow, what a game, but gutted I exited with it 0-1. That's trading for you!
Guirames v Santa Clara
I placed a few orders in the over 2.5 goals market throughout the second half.
It was 0-0 approaching the end of the game, so I stuck to my plan and exited for a loss.
Guirames scored in the 90th minute to win 1-0. The goal arrived too late for me.
Here's my other trades on Saturday:
Gent v Mouscron Jupiler League (over/Under 2.5 goals) was a win
Napoli v Fiorentina Serie A (over/under 2.5 goals) was a win
Alkmaar v Willem II Eredivisie (over/under 2.5 goals) was a win
Here are the trades from Sunday
Atromitos v Volos Greek Super League (o/u 2.5 goals market) Loss
Liverpool v Man United Premier League (o/u 2.5 goals market) Loss
Famalicao v Maritimo Primeira League (o/u 2.5 goals market) Win
Barcelona v Granada La Liga (o/u 2.5 goals market) Scratch trade
Surprised the Liverpool v Man United game was 1-0 for so long. I was already out of the market when Salah scored in the last minute.
The weekend started with £846.06
The balance is now £839.42
Right, I'm going to forgot that colour of red. I'm feeling positive about my trading for the week ahead.
I'm likely feeling positive after re-reading (for the 3rd time) "Think And Grow Rich" by Napoleon Hill. A book I highly recommend.
The start of a new week so let's get going.
Not many games that satisfied my selection rules, so I decided to scalp some games this evening. I'm still new to scalping, so I'm keeping my stakes to a manageable size until I get the hang of it. I have to understand I need to be patient with this style of trading. Learn to walk before running.
Jong AZ v FC Oss
Scalping the market in the first half and ended up scratching this match. No win, but more importantly, no loss.
Lorient v Caen
French Ligue 2
I was scalping the under/over 3.5 goals market during the first half of this game. I came away with a small profit.
Parma v Lecce
This match was one I shortlisted earlier in the day to trade. After analysing the stats, I felt this game would start slow. I chose to back the under goals market and trade out during the first half.
As expected, the game did start slowly, and I earned a profit.
A few markets I scalped in-play.
Lazio v Cremonese (Coppa Italia) = £0.00 Scratch trade
Coventry v Bristol Rovers (FA Cup) = £1.82
Malaga v Ponferradina (Segunda Division) = £1.17
Blackpool v Reading (FA Cup) = £2.33
Burton v MK Dons
In the last 12 home games, Burton has failed to score within the first 20 minutes of their games.
After analysing the stats further, I opened an order to back the under goals market and then to exit during the first half depending on how the game was going.
Ooh so close. I was ready to place my order to remove the liability and then the audible notification comes through from flashscore. Burton scored in the 20th minute. I then referred to my trading plan I keep in OneNote, documenting the process I'm to follow.
Although there was a goal, I exited the trade with a break-even result (well a few pennies in profit!)
Although it wasn't a significant win, it was satisfying to know I followed my trading plan correctly and what was looking like a losing trade at first, resulting in a break-even return.
Wednesday's scalping trade:
Olympiacos v Kalamata (Greek Cup) = £0.00 scratch
Rizespor v Galatasaray
Although Galatasaray is well known to the average football fan outside of Turkey, they were not odds on favourites. After looking at the stats, I expected the match to finish as a low scoring game.
I entered an order backing under goals market.
I had to work hard in this trade, manging my entries along the way. It was worth it, though, as I came away with a profit. The match ended 1-1.
Rayo Vallecano v Lugo
After looking at the stats, I anticipated this game to be a low scoring match. One of the statistics I noticed is 66% of the last six home league games for Vallecano finished under 2.5 goals.
I backed the under 2.5 goals.
The score ended 1-0 to Vallecano, and I had a profitable trade.
Cadiz v Mirandes
In recent form, both sides, either score or concede a goal in the first half. In the last five league matches at home Cadiz have an 80% record. Mirandes in their previous five away league games has a stat of 100%.
I decided to trade the over 0.5 goals in the first half, entering multiple orders.
This match returned a profitable trade. The score was 1-1 at half time.
Overall a decent evening of trading!
Deportivo v Racing Santander
50% of Deportivo's last six home games finished under 2.5 goals. For Racing Santander the stat is over 80% of their previous six away league games finishing under 2.5 goals.
I placed some orders into the under goals market, expecting a low scoring match.
The trade worked out as I walked away with the profit. The final score was 2-1.
Girona v Extremadura UD
66% of Girona's last six home games concluded under 2.5 goals. 50% of Extremadura UD's last six away league games finished under 2.5 goals.
I decided to trade the under goals market.
This time it didn't work out. The score was 2-0 at half-time and the game finished 3-1 so more goals than I expected.
I started the week at £813.01.
Balance is now £846.06
Usually, I create two posts a week, but this week I've captured a full week’s worth of trades in the one post.
Here’s how it went.
There were several Serie A games today. I shortlisted a few of them, but only one match met my criteria.
Atalanta v Parma
With Atalanta winning 3-0 at half-time it was an easy decision for me to enter this trade. With a significant lead, I assumed they would take their foot off the pedal in the second half.
I entered the market, backing the under goal market, watching the price decrease with time decay.
I cashed out for a profit before the 60th minute for a small profit. I messed up my staking plan for this trade, but a win is a win.
Atalanta went on and won the match 5-0.
I wasn’t in front of my laptop to write about my trades, but here’s a record of how they turned out.
Not great, two losing trades.
Here’s a record of my Wednesday trades.
A decent Friday. It’s nice to start a weekend off with three from three.
I was back in front of my laptop today.
Brentford v QPR
A London derby to start a day of trading. Brentford sits near the top of the league and has scored at home in their last three games. QPR find themselves in 15th position.
I entered 0.5 points stake backing Over 1.5 goals midway through the first half. If it’s 0-0 during the second half, I’ll likely place another 0.5 point stake.
This trade worked out well. My order was matched a minute before Brentford took the lead from a well-worked free-kick. I removed the liability before Brentford made it 2-0 a few minutes later.
A small win as only a 0.5 point stake was matched, but it’s a win.
Brentford won the match 3-1.
Charlton v West Brom
West Brom away from home were the odds on favourites, but generally, I like to think the away team won't fly out the gate from the start, compared to playing at home in front of their home crowd.
I decided to back the unders goal market with the aim to exit during the first half for a profit if there’s no early goal. If the game starts quicker than I expect or if there is an early goal, I’ll exit out of the trade.
Kind of frustrating as I was planning on exiting around 20 mins as I could see a goal arriving. As I clicked the button to exit the trade, WBA goes and score. Therefore I cash out for a loss. So annoying.
The game ended 2-2.
Man United v Norwich
Man United was playing at home against a struggling Norwich City side, so I expected goals.
I place some orders in the over 1.5 goals market.
Rashford scored in the 27th minute so I could remove the liability. I then locked in the profit when Rashford scored his second.
Man United won the game 4-0.
Portsmouth v AFC Wimbledon
Portsmouth was playing at home. After analyzing the recent stats I decided to place orders over 1.5 goals.
Portsmouth scored in the 20th minute, so I removed my liability. When AFC Wimbledon equalised in the 62nd minute, my risk-free trade became a winner.
Portsmouth won the game 2-1.
Lazio v Napoli
I was expecting a slow start between two well-known teams in Italy. I decided to back the unders goal market and look to exit later in the first half.
Midway through the second half, the score was 0-0, so I decided to remove the liability and leave the trade alone. If there’s a lot of goals, I walk away with a scratch-free trade. If not, I win.
Lazio scored in the 82nd minute, but that was it, so it worked out to be a winning trade.
Inter v Atalanta
Inter Milan have scored or conceded a goal at home within the first 15 minutes, only once this season. Based on this I decided to back the unders goal market and trade out midway through the first half.
For Atalanta, there have been four goals either scored or conceded from a total of 31 in the nine away matches this season.
Well, that didn’t go as I planned. Inter scored in the 4th minute. What can I say? I reckon with the stats accessible to me; I would have entered the same trade again if I had to do so.
One more game left on the shortlist for today.
Setubal v Sporting Lisbon
Just the one goal scored or conceded at home in the first fifteen minutes this season for Setubal. There have also been several low scoring matches when they play at home in the league.
Same with the earlier Charlton, Inter and the Lazio games earlier, I placed orders in the unders goal market.
I removed the liability during the first half, so it became a risk-free trade.
It ended with a scratch trade as Sporting Lisbon won this game 1-3.
Here's a record of my Sunday football trades.
I started the week with a balance of £782.20
Balance is now £813.01. I’ve made it over £800!!.
It was the first weekend of fixtures since the festive holidays and some teams were participating in the 3rd round of the FA Cup. As a fan of football, I must confess I enjoy the FA Cup more than some of the European competitions.
It’s such a historic competition where all teams can envisage lifting the trophy. I realise it doesn't have the glamour it used to possess, and the Premier League clubs rank it lower than finishing in the top 4, but I embrace it. Who wouldn't like to see their team play in the final at Wembley Stadium?
After an excellent start to the new year, this is how my weekend of trading went.
Valladolid v Leganes
I was looking at the statistics between these two sides, and I believed there wasn't going to be many goals. I was presuming the first half will start slow.
In Valladolid's last five games at home, only one of them produced over 1.5 goals in the first half. The rest had one goal or less.
I decided to open a trade backing the Under 2.5 goals market, then plan to exit for a profit as the time progressed and time decay does its thing. If the game is more open than I would like, then I'll exit sooner than I plan to.
Four minutes into the match. Well, that did didn't go to plan. The goal arrived sooner than I expected. The markets overreacted so I chose to wait, let the market settle before I conceded and exit for a loss. While the market's settled down, I immediately went to make a cup of tea and speak with the Wife in the kitchen, which took me no more than five or six minutes (or so I thought).
I then returned to my laptop, preparing to exit the trade after the early goal and take the loss on the chin!
To my horror, another two goals had been scored in the 8th and then the 13th minute! Woah! Three goals in 13 minutes and as a result a 100% loss.
If I was following my trading plan, I "should" have been out after the first goal. I felt sick. I haven't screwed up as severe as this for some time. It was careless of me.
Bordeaux v Le Mans
Coupe de France
Bordeaux was playing at home in the French cup and were clear favourites priced at 1.58. Le Mans was at 6.8.
I chose to "Lay The Draw" midway through the first half with the score still 0-0. I then set myself a stop-loss and exit the trade if there were no goal later in the match. The Valladolid v Leganes trade was fresh in my memory so I was going to stick to my trading plan - and not become occupied with anything else.
The trade worked out. Bordeaux took the lead, so I cashed out for a profit. They went on to win the match 2-0
Seville v Ath. Bilbao
Like with the earlier Valladolid game, the stats were implying this match would also begin slow. In Seville's last five games there have not been over 1.5 goals in the first half. Looking at the Bilbao last five away games, just one had over 1.5 goals in the first half.
Not being scared or put off from the earlier trade in Spain, I opened an order to back the under goal market.
I had to work hard for this trade. A goal was scored after 15 mins then shortly afterwards, monitoring the game, I chose rather than cashing out I would instead remove the liability and let it run.
Because the goal was conceded in the first half, I made only a small profit. A win is a win, though.
Friday didn't go too well after the silly mistake I made earlier. I was always going to struggle to make a profit with that kind of loss. Onto Saturday!
When it comes to trading the FA Cup, I admit I need to be a little more cautious. After all, it’s a cup competition, and recent form and stats go out the window.
I don’t get put off trading cup games, but I understand it doesn’t suit all football traders.
Bristol City v Shrewsbury
FA Cup 3rd Round.
Bristol City is currently in 11th position in the Championship. Shrewsbury is now in 14th position in League One. Recent form for either side hasn't been exceptional but with match odds of 1.84 for Bristol City, playing at home, I considered this had “some” value.
I backed Bristol City from kick-off, looking to lock in a profit should they take the lead. If the score is level at Half-time, I’ll add another order if Bristol City is on top.
Bristol City took the lead in the 30th minute against the run of play to be fair.
I waited for the market to settle before opening a position to cash out. Not a significant return as I only had a 0.5 point stake matched before the goal.
The final result was 1-1. I wasn’t surprised as Shrewsbury played well and were unlucky to go a goal behind.
Reading v Blackpool
FA Cup 3rd Round
Reading is a Championship side playing at home against Blackpool from League One. Blackpool’s away form hasn’t been fabulous, without a win in their last five away games.
I placed an order just after kick-off to back Reading at home and then cash-out if and when they take the lead.
Blackpool took the lead in the first half, but I still believed Reading would get back into this, so I entered the markets again, with another 0.5 point stake. I now have the full 1 point in the trade.
Reading, as I expected equalised in the second half. Rather than cashing out, I removed the liability and then cheered Reading forward to get the win.
I decided to cash out for a small profit when Blackpool retook the lead making it 1-2.
Shortly after I exited the trade Reading pulled level to make it 2-2. In a way, I was kicking myself as leaving the trade as a risk-free trade would mean a nice profit if Reading turned it around, making it 3-2.
They didn’t turn it around, and the match ended 2-2. In hindsight, I was correct (or lucky) to cash out when Blackpool went 1-2 up.
Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday
FA Cup 3rd Round
I chose to get involved in this match not so much because of the pre-match stats but because Brighton at home is not an easy team to play. They're playing some decent football under Graham Potter.
Sheffield Wednesday are just outside the play-offs in the Championship and doing okay. I just believe Brighton will edge this one.
I opened an order and backed Brighton with a 0.5 point stake, looking for them to take the lead.
What can I say? That didn’t work out. Sheffield Wednesday took a lead in the second half. With less than 30 minutes in the game, I decided to cash out for a loss. I thought Brighton might equalise but not win the match with a limited amount of time left.
In the end, I was accurate to cash out for an early, limited loss, as Sheffield Wednesday held onto their lead and knocked the Premier League side out of the FA Cup winning 0-1.
Belenenses v Braga
Braga, the favourites, were away from home. In some matches, when the clear favourites are playing away, it sometimes takes time to get going, take it slow, quieten the home crowd down and be patient. I decided for this match to do some scalping from the start.
Five minutes in and the game was much livelier than I anticipated, so I chose to exit the trade early. I believed there was no need to stay in this trade if the game wasn’t going as I expected. I came out of the trade with a small profit.
Three minutes later, Braga scored. I was pleased I read the match and was flexible in my methods to exit when I saw the game was not going to plan. I was happy with this trade. Not for the small profit I made but the way I managed the trade.
Still monitoring the match, I opened up another trade in the second half to trade the Under goals market. Braga was winning 1-4 away from home so with five goals already I expected the second half to start slow as Braga had wrapped up the win.
That didn’t go to plan. Braga started the second half as they finished the first and scored their fifth goal with their first significant attack.
They went on to thrash Belenenses 1-7!!
Guimaraes v Benfica
In this match, I traded the under goal market and cashed out midway through the first half just moments before Benfica took the lead.
A small win.
I started the blog on 1st August last year, but I don’t trade every day due to holidays, commitments at work and my family, but today I completed 100 trading days since August.
I’ve been tracking this in a chart. It’s a shame the last couple of days ended with a negative return, but overall it's been on an upward curve.
I went to the gym for a 45-minute spinning class this morning. It was hard work, but I felt great afterwards. It helped me get in the right frame of mind for the afternoon and evening of trading. Here’s how it went.
Olympiakos v Panathinaikos
Greece Super League
Olympiakos were clear odds on favourites priced at 1.25 and haven’t lost at home in their last five games. I kept an eye on the match throughout the first half to see if there was an angle for me to enter.
At half time the score, surprising to me, was still 0-0. Looking at the stats, it seemed like it was an open match, so I was expecting a goal.
I layed the under 1.5 goal market during the second half with a plan to remove the liability should there be a goal.
It sort of went to plan. Olympiakos scored in the 74th minute, so I removed my liability but the second goal never arrived, so this trade was a scratch trade.
Gillingham v West ham
FA Cup 3rd Round
West Ham, now under the management of David Moyes, was playing away to Gillingham. I expected West Ham to win the tie, but I believed a Sunday night game, under the floodlights, might start scrappy.
I chose to back the under’s goal market, and as time progressed throughout the first half if there were no goals I'd exit for a profit.
The trade was successful when I exited for a profit midway through the first half when the score still 0-0. It stayed 0-0 at Half-time in fact.
West Ham went on to win the match and progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup
AS Roma v Torino
This game was shown live on Premier Sports. Roma has been impressive at home recently, without a loss in their last five games.
I opened a position backing Roma.
Torino scored just before half-time. I didn't panic and left my trade open to see if Roma would equalise then manage the trade and see if they push on for the win.
The score was still 0-1 in the 70th minute, so I decided to change my approach. I exited the trade for a loss but then opened a new trade Laying under 1.5 goals. The match was open, Roma was pushing for a goal but also leaving gaps, so by opening this trade all I needed was a goal from either side to cover the loss on my earlier trade.
As expected, there was a goal. Torino converted a penalty to make it 0-2. This was enough to cover my loss, so it worked out overall to be a scratch trade.
Friday’s error with the Under 2.5 goal trade in the Valladolid v Leganes match was hard to take, but by Sunday I started to get over it. It was always going to take a little time to recover from that error and stop myself from forcing the trades, simply to cover the loss.
This weekend saw me complete 100 days of trading since I started the blog, so that’s a nice milestone to achieve. Overall, as the chart shows, my football trading is on a steadily upward direction.
Let’s see how the weekend of trading went.
I started the weekend with a balance of £800.46
Balance now stands at £782.20
A negative weekend. I'll park this, forget about it and move forward.
Happy New year, everyone. I'm looking forward to seeing where my trading will take me this year. I have some short-term and long-term goals for my trading in 2020.
Over the holidays, I was reading some other blogs and articles and what is apparent is that I should be clear in my approach to compound my earnings either daily, weekly or monthly. I have been compounding and adjusting my stakes without any real process until now. Still, going forward I'll be strict in compounding every week and changing the stake amounts on Monday's.
Here's how New years day and Thursday’s trades went.
Wednesday 01-January-20 (New Years Day)
I spent the day with family, so I wasn't at my laptop to type my trading notes, but I still managed to place some trades in between activities. Here's how the trades went.
Derby v Barnsley
While looking at the recent form, I expected the game to start slow so I decided to Back the Under's market from the kickoff and trade out during the first-half if the score was still 0-0.
As the match progressed the score stayed 0-0, and I had hit my target price, so I exited the trade for a winning trade.
Liverpool v Sheff United
League leaders (and most would say confirmed Champions) Liverpool hosted Sheffield United. I decided to wait until half-time to enter the trade so I could watch the first half.
With so many games played over the holiday season, I wasn't sure how the game would turn out. Many players are exhausted due to the fixture congestion, and it could impact the performance.
At half time the score was 1-0 to Liverpool. I expected at least one more goal, maybe even two, so I decided to Dutch two scores, both 3-0 and 2-1.
Mane scored for Liverpool making it 2-0, so this allowed me to remove the liability from the trade and let it run. Another goal to make it 3-0 or 2-1 would lock in a profit.
It wasn't to be though as the score finished 2-0. Therefore a scratch trade.
I'm happy with how the start of the new year has gone. Six trades in two days. Five wins and one scratch trade.
Starting balance for 2020 was £754.81.
Balance is now £800.46
During the holiday season, I've been busy wrapping presents, attending family gatherings and meeting up with my friends, so I was unable to write up my thoughts and analysis for each of my trades.
So I don't lose track of my P&L within this blog, I've taken a screenshot of my results. My usual blog posts with further detail will resume next week.
It's been some time since Wigan last had a 0-0 away from home. Blackburn has had just the one in recent times. The "under 1.5 goals" market price during the second half was around 1.40, so I decided to lay this market as it was providing a decent Risk v Reward ratio.
I intended to lock in a profit if there's a goal and then let it run and see if there is a second goal before the final whistle.
Blackburn hit the bar in the 75th minute which I thought that was the moment to remove the liability then enjoy the final fifteen minutes, but it wasn't to be, and the game ended 0-0.
Here's a summary of how the rest of my trading went over Christmas.
There were some wins, some scratch break-even trades and of course some losses.
It's the end of a month, the end of a year and the end of a decade.
It didn't go too well during the festive season. I never really felt I was trading in the zone. Maybe it's because I was trying to "fit" trading into a hectic time and in hindsight, I wasn't dedicating 100% of my time to my football trading. Overall the P&L ended -£5.53
As I've done in the past, I've updated the "monthly report" page. What's interesting is I had a better win rate than I've had previously, but my ROI for December was lower compared to previous months.
Since I began this blog on the 1-August-2019, I've earned a profit of £494.81, which over five months is a 190% Return on Investment (ROI). Starting with £260 the balance is now £754.81
Reflecting on 2019, even before I started writing the blog, I've learned a lot in both trading methods, but for me, more importantly, is continuing to improve my mindset. I still have a lot more to learn though!
In recent months I've been flexible and adapted my trading methods while conscious of how much I will risk before I open a trade. My intention is always to ensure I'm here for the long term and not risk destroying my bank, but it's a balancing act as I don't want to be too conservative either. It can be tedious using small, manageable stakes, compared to the significant stakes and P&L I see from other sports traders online, but I want to "try" and stay disciplined and treat the amount I have to trade as if it was a larger balance.
September showed high returns, but I was risking between 7-12% of the total balance, per trade, and I didn't feel comfortable risking that outlay over the long term. I do get times when I consider increasing my risk from the current 2% (ish) stakes, back up to those earlier amounts and go for it!
Overall I'm happy with how it's going but still learning. Let's see where I'll be this time next year?
Happy New Year, everyone!
It was the last weekend of football trading before Christmas. This post will explain how it went.
Eibar v Granada
Although neither team has been in great form, I presumed the match would produce a couple of goals. I entered the "over 1.5 goals" market with an order matched at 1.55 within the first 15 minutes.
Eibar took the lead in the 21st minute. I chose rather than "cashing in" for a profit I would create more value and remove the liability, building a "risk-free" trade.
Eibar scored their second a few minutes later, resulting in a winning trade.
As I anticipated, the game produced at least two goals. Eibar comfortably won the match 3-0.
Everton v Arsenal
In hindsight, recognising that both teams appointed new coaches the players were likely to impress their onlooking coaches so the previous form might best be ignored.
At home, Everton games produce at least a goal, so I decided to back "over 1.5 goals" intending to exit after the first goal.
I decided to cash out for a loss in the second half with the score still 0-0. I opened a second trade in the "over 0.5 goals market” yet expecting a goal.
The game ended 0-0 resulting in a frustrating loss — not a great start to a Saturday of trading.
The following trades were games that I traded in play when the score was 0-0. I then locked in a profit after a goal.
Real Betis v Atletico Madrid
I entered two trades during this match. Sports traders have the flexibility to change the approach during the game, and not sit on our hands unable to do anything.
The first trade was backing "over 1.5 goals" expecting a goal or two. At half time the score was 0-0, so I decided to take a small loss and cash out.
As it was half-time, this match might not necessarily have enough time to create two goals. Also, my thinking was if I did stick with the first "over 1.5 goals" trade, if the first goal came too late, I might only get a small loss.
I still believed there would be a goal so I opened a second trade, but this time I was entering the "over 0.5 goals" market. If there were a goal, this would cover the loss from the first trade.
As I expected, the goal arrived in the 58th minute. Atletico Madrid took the lead.
Atletico Madrid went on to win the game 1-2, so there were over two goals. Oh well, I feel I traded it OK and showed that I could be flexible in my approach.
I entered the following trades expecting goals, so I backed "over 1.5 goals" intending to cash out after a goal.
I started the weekend with £764.36
Balance is now £760.34
14 Trades. 9 wins so a 64% win rate, but the losses hit me hard resulting in a negative P&L.
A losing weekend. This weekends result is following a losing mid-week of trades. I feel I'm a little lost in my trading at the moment — no real consistency.
I need to take a step back to see where I might be going wrong but also keep in mind, although I've had losses, they're not busting the bank.
I'm still on target for a profitable December, but if I'm honest, I was hoping for better returns. (sigh!)
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.