With the Coronavirus causing a lot of games to be cancelled or closed behind closed doors I wasn’t sure how much trading I would do, but here’s how the weekends trading went.
FC Khimki v Tomsk
The home side were clear odds on favourites, so when the score was “only” 1-0 at Half time, I layed the under goals market expecting more goals.
I had to wait longer than I thought, but the goal came in the 70th minute when Khimki extended their lead to 2-0. They scored another goal minutes later, making it 3-0.
Rotor Volgograd v Neftekhimik
This was a match and scoreline I was alerted to in a Telegram trading group so I can’t take credit for selecting this match. I layed the under goals market, with a liability stake, when the home team were winning 1-0.
The second goal of the match came in the 72nd minute when the away side made it 1-1.
The match finished 1-1 with two red cards near the end of the game.
Leicester v Aston Villa
With Leicester winning 1-0 heading into the second half I believed there were more goals in the game. I placed a couple of orders backing the over goals market.
Leicester scored a penalty before my second order was matched, so I removed the liability to try and make a higher return.
This worked out when Leicester went on to score a third and then a fourth, winning the match 4-0.
Overall it was a decent day of trading.
Cheltenham started today, so I decided to put a few “punt bets” on for a bit of fun. It’s not part of my trading bank though.
Erzurum BB v Fatih Karagumruk
1. Lig (Turkey)
I was notified of this 1-0 scoreline in Turkey, so I decided to Lay the under goals market in the second half.
The second goal arrived in the 77th minute, which was enough for me to win this trade.
The game finished 1-3.
Bidvest Wits v Black Leopards
South African Premier League
This was a silly trade looking back on this. The score was 1-0 to the home side at half-time. I looked at the first-half stats, and it looked like there would be more goals in the second half.
I placed an order to lay the under goals market midway through the second half when the price was lower, and reduce my liability. When the order was matched, I checked the second half stats. There wasn’t a shot on target. In hindsight with stats like this, I should have checked before and likely would have held off placing the trade.
Oh well, I only risk what I expect to lose, so I just moved on.
Dundee v Ayr
This was another lay the under goals market trade in the second half. I was staring at a loss here, but then Dundee scored in the 93rd minute.
A decent day of trading. I also had a productive day at Cheltenham. I made about a +20 point profit on the horses, but it’s “punting”, not trading, so I keep a separate "fun" pot for my "punts" and not use my sports trading bank.
Istanbulspor v Altinordu
With the home team trailing 0-1 in the final stages of the match the stats seemed to show the game was hot and there could be another goal.
With the price moving below 2.0, I decided to lay the under goals market.
Well, that came in nicely. A 92nd-minute winner with the match finishing 0-2
Mgladbach v Koln
Is it Koln or should I spell it Cologne?
With the scoreline 1-0 at the start of the second half, I believed there would be another goal. M’gladbach were on top, and it was likely they would score again.
I placed an order to lay the under goals market, which was matched 15 minutes or so later in the second half.
M’gladbach, as I expected, scored their second in the 70th minute.
Another winning trade. The match finished 2-1.
Liverpool v Atletico Madrid
Liverpool was winning 1-0, and the score was 1-1 on aggregate. Although Atletico might want to take their chances in extra time, I felt Liverpool would go on and win. As it’s a cup game and potential for extra-time, I reduced my stake but still decided to lay the under goals market.
It wasn’t to be. Liverpool was throwing everything at Atletico Madrid, but they couldn’t score.
Atletico Madrid put the ball in the back of the net in the 93rd minute, but there were three players offside, so it didn’t count. Therefore the match went into Extra time.
Basaksehir v FC Copenhagen
With the score still 0-0 in the second half, I expected a goal before full time. I layed the under goals market around the 60th-minute mark.
I was pleased to see a goal scored in the 88th minute.
Just the one trade today but overall a decent week of trading.
I started the week with a balance of £963.14
The balance is now £1008.89
At last! I’ve made it to the £1,000 milestone!! I started this journey back on the 1st of August last year with a starting balance of £260. It might have taken longer to reach this milestone than I expected, but I’m pleased with the progress.
I’ve had a few bumps along the way, some time out for holidays and other commitments which might have slowed things down, but I’ve managed my risk, kept my bank intact and stuck with it, and now I see four figures in my Betfair account.
With the Coronavirus and sporting events being postponed or cancelled I’m not sure if I'll be trading the football in the coming weeks and months. All US sports are postponed, several European football matches and leagues have been cancelled or postponed, and the tennis is postponed for six weeks. Even the start of the F1 season has been delayed. All we can do is wait until things return to normality.
February wasn’t a great month for me. Don’t get me wrong, it was OK as I made a profit, but it wasn’t the gains I was looking to achieve. Each month I attempt to earn 10-15% a month so let's see how March goes.
With all the news about Coronavirus, I wonder if it'll ever impact the football matches being played in the UK as it has done in some other countries?
It's the Cheltenham Festival next week. I saw there's a market on Betfair on whether it will go ahead. Will it?
Tottenham v Wolves
Tottenham is without their two main attackers in Harry Kane and Son, so when I saw a strong Wolves team priced so high in the “Draw No Bet” market I saw this as value and placed more than my usual stake amount.
I managed to remove most of the liability before kick-off when it was announced Hugo Lloris was out with an injury. The money on Wolves steamed in, so I removed the risk from my trade.
The final score finished Tottenham 2-3 Wolves. Tottenham gave up a 2-1 lead to a strong Wolves side, so this was a winning trade to start a new month. It was a decent return, as well.
Benfica v Moreirense
With the score remaining 0-0 during the second half, I placed two orders in the over goals market. I was confident this match wouldn’t end goalless.
Both my orders were matched before Moreirense took a surprising 0-1 lead and I decided to cash out for a winning trade.
Betfair seemed to have some issues with the markets staying suspended for about 20 minutes. I was glad I managed to cash out when I did as I heard on social media a few sports traders got caught out with this issue.
Benfica scored in the final minutes to make it 1-1.
Cracovia v Wisla
I decided to back over 1.5 goals in the second half with the score still 0-0.
When Wisla took the lead in the 55th minute, I removed the liability, creating a risk-free trade. The second goal arrived, making it 0-2, and as a result, this was now a winning trade.
Dundee v Alloa
I was surprised to see the score was still 0-0 in the second half, so I entered a couple of orders in the over goals market.
Time went by, and there was still no goal. In the end, sticking to my trading plan rules, I exited the trade before the final whistle for a loss. The match ended 0-0, so I was happy I exited the trade when I did.
Today saw one win and one losing trade.
Leverkusen v Union Berlin
DFB Pokel (German Cup)
I wasn't in front of my laptop to write down my thoughts for this trade, but I recorded a winning trade in the over 1.5 goals market.
Rangers v Hamilton
This was a scratch trade. I removed my liability in this over 1.5 goals market trade when Hamilton took a surprising lead. The match finished 0-1. I didn't win, but more importantly, no loss.
I started the week, and the start of a month, with £911.10
The balance is now £981.17. Ooh, so close to £1,000, which will be an excellent achievement since starting this journey in August with a £260 trading balance.
This week turned out to be a great start to March. The Spurs v Wolves trade on Sunday contributed a lot to the amount earned, but I'm pleased I'm back to winning way with only one loss in six trades. An encouraging start.
Here’s how my mid-week of trading the football went for me.
In parallel to my football trading, I'm still learning and getting used to trading the tennis. I’m not in a position to introduce it to my trading bank, though.
Gil Vicente v Benfica
With Benfica 0-1 in the lead, I expected them to extend their lead or that the home side would get back into it. I layed the under goals market.
It wasn’t to be, and the match finished 0-1. Therefore a losing trade.
Sunderland v Fleetwood Town
Sunderland was the pre-match favourites playing at home. When I saw that Fleetwood was leading 0-1, I decided to lay the under goals market in the second half.
The price moved towards my stop-loss, and I had to exit for a loss so it was a losing trade.
Fulham v Swansea
With the score 0-0, I layed the under goals market midway through the second half expecting at least one goal.
My predetermined stop loss was hit, so I exited the trade for a loss.
Sheff Wed v Charlton
Like in the Fulham v Charlton match, I layed the under goals market in the second half. The goal never arrived before the price hit my stop loss.
I couldn't believe it when I saw this after I exited my trades.
Unbelievable. After tonight, I have to look at entering later in the match and stay in until the end. I'm on a poor run of form this week.
[Craig is sulking!]
Celtic v FC Copenhagen
With Celtic losing 0-1 at home I decided to lay Copenhagen in the latter part of the match.
I was pleased to see Celtic score the equalizer in the 82nd minute so I could cash out for profit. Yes! A winning trade bringing my losing streak to an end.
I’m glad I cashed out when I did as FC Copenhagen scored two quick goals to make it 1-3.
Sevilla v CFR Cluj
This match was 0-0 deep into the second half so, I opposed the current score.
Cluj scored in the 88th minute. Another win!!
Wait….hold on…..No! It’s been disallowed!
There was then a late red card and time ran out for me, and the match finished 0-0. There I thought I had won the trade with a late winner. Unfortunately for me, it wasn’t to be.
Overall it's been a disappointing midweek of trading. I need to (and I will) get over it.
I started the week with £945.47
P&L for the week -£35.34
The balance is now £910.13
It was not a great week of trading.
We’re now heading into the last weekend of February. I haven’t looked, but I don’t believe I'm on course to meet my target of 10-15% ROI this month.
I had a week off at the start of February, so who knows, maybe that would have been a profitable week and help me earn my target amount this month.
Let’s see what the weekend brings.
Here’s how my mid-week trading went.
In parallel to my football trading I'm learning to improve my tennis trading. I’m not ready or prepared to use this main sports trading bank for tennis trading (yet).
FCSB v Clinceli
Romania Liga 1
Pre-match analysis swayed me to back the under goals market in this match. Although FCSB were favourites to win, I felt the odds in the under goals market offered some value and expected the game to start slowly.
I entered the market at kick-off, removing some liability along the way before exiting with a profit mid-way through the first half.
Emmen v FC Twente
I entered the market, opening a position in the under goals market.
It was pretty much a scratch trade as I exited after ten minutes. The price was hardly decreasing, and I wasn’t prepared to stick around. A small green return, but it could also be seen as a scratch trade.
Crewe v Crawley
Like with the earlier Emmen v FC Twente game, the market didn’t move as I expected and so I came out earlier than I would have liked.
Swansea v QPR
I expected a slow start to this game, so once again I backed the under goals market from kick-off.
I removed some liability around 10 minutes into the game in case of an early goal. I removed all liability and cashed out just before 30 minutes. This was a winning trade.
The score stayed 0-0 at half-time so in hindsight I could have stayed in the market for longer, but I was staying with my trading plan, so I’m pleased with that.
The match finished 0-0.
Celtic v Hearts
Celtic made it 2-0 at the start of the second half, so I decided to scalp the under goals market, expecting Celtic “to be happy with a two-goal lead and protect it.”
I managed to lay off a little of the liability before Celtic made it 3-0 in the 51st minute. As a result, this was a losing trade.
Celtic made It 4-0 after 68 minutes, and then 5-0 after 80 minutes, so I profiled this incorrectly.
Inter v Napoli
I noticed while scanning the list of in-play matches the score was still 0-0.
I decided to open a position in the market and lay the draw.
Napoli scores moments later making it 0-1. As Napoli was the away team, the odds didn’t move in my favour as much as I would like to see so instead I removed the liability, making it a risk-free trade. If Napoli goes onto win, its a profit, if Inter draw level and it ends in a draw, then no win, but more importantly, no loss.
The match ended 0-1 to Napoli so a winning trade.
AC Milan v Juventus
Two heavyweights from Italy face each other in the cup. I felt the defences should be tough to break down, so I decided to back the under goals market from kick-off.
I removed my liability throughout the first half and finally exiting after 30 minutes for a profit.
Antwerp v Genk
With the score level at 1-1 during the second half, I was expecting Antwerp to score the winner. I decided to lay the draw.
Well, it wasn't to be. Eleven attempts and six shots on target between the sides in the second half but the match finished 1-1 and therefore a losing trade.
I started the week with £872.64 in the bank
P&L for the week was +£3.60
The balance is now £876.24
Not a fantastic return from my mid-week trades, but I would prefer to return a small profit or break-even compared to a loss. So I’ll take it.
It’s Valentine's day on Friday! I wonder if I’ll be able to do any trading??
It was the last week of trading in January, so I was determined to finish on a high.
Bournemouth v Arsenal
I was scalping from the start of the match. If I feel the game is heating up or there’s a dangerous free-kick near the area I was planning on exiting the markets.
There was an early goal after 4 minutes that caught me out, so I continued to scalp the market before exiting with a small loss. I was pleased with my methods because I didn’t panic after the early goal and reacted calmly.
Once the game started getting lively, I knew I should exit altogether and not be greedy to make up the rest of the remaining loss.
Arsenal won the match 1-2 and progress to the next round.
Regensburg v Hannover
Both sides have scored on average less than one goal a game in the first half. Noticing this stat, I decided to back the under goals market from the kick-off and trade out as the price decreases over time. If there’s an early goal, then I’ll manage the trade by following my trading plan.
It was still 0-0 after 25 minutes when I decided to cash out for a win.
The final score was 1-0 to Regensburg.
Luton v Derby
Like with the game in Germany, I decided to back the under goals market again and trade out if the match is 0-0 after some time.
The markets were sticky and only moved a few ticks in the first ten minutes, so I decided to remove the liability from the trade.
It worked out to be a scratch trade as the final score was Luton 3-2 Derby, so the matched finished over the 2.5 goals.
Porto v Gil Vicente
I decided to do some first half scalping and made a small profit.
Stuttgart v Heidenheim
An early kick-off. I forgot about it until I checked my shortlist of matches to trade and realised.
Stuttgart were clear favourites, but neither side has scored that many in the first half this season. The stats say that Stuttgart scores around 0.5 goals (on average) in the first half when playing at home.
I decided to back the under goals market from kick-off.
I exited the trade for a profit after 25 minutes, not getting too greedy, in case of a goal. I’m glad I did as Stuttgart scored not long afterwards in the 32nd minute. A good start to the day.
Kiel v SV Darmstadt
This was another trade backing the under goals market from kick-off.
I was moments away from cashing out, and the "suspended" notice appeared on the Betfair exchange when a goal went in. Even though there was a goal, I earned a small profit as I had built up enough from drip-feeding some orders back into the market to remove my liability.
St Johnstone v Celtic
Scottish Premier League
Celtic was winning 0-3 at half-time, so I felt they might sit back and not press for a fourth goal, so I decided to back the under goals market for a quick scalp.
I was in and out of the market in ten minutes and earned a profit.
Three winning trades this evening.
Hamburg v Nurnberg
Hamburg, when playing at home, have only scored or conceded in the first half 37% of the time. With a statistic like this, I decided to back the under goals market from the kick-off.
After the first goal went in, I decided to exit with a small loss and not to risk more of a loss if either team score another goal.
I’m glad I did as Hamburg made it 2-0 not long after. The game was a lot more attacking than I anticipated. I’m happy to have got away with a small loss in this trade. It feels like a small win.
Hamburg was leading 2-0 at half time, so I went back in and scalped the goals market at the start of the second half. That didn’t work out so well either when there was a goal after 51 mins that caught me out.
Nice v Lyon
Coupe de France
Another match I entered, trading the under goals market in the first half.
I exited the trade early, with a small profit, as the markets were not moving and I could see someone (or a group of people) lumping on £10,000 into the market to hold the price from progressing further. When I see that happening in the markets I give it a moment to see if it’s someone trying to fool the market, but it was left there for some time, so I decided to exit early and leave it alone.
Lyon scored in the 15th minute, so I entered the market again for a quick scalp after the market overreacted to the goal. I was in the market for no more than 4 minutes.
The final day of the month has arrived. Whether you agree with it or not, Brexit is at 11 pm today, and finally, it’s a transfer deadline day in the UK. I must admit I’m not a fan of how Sky promote this day, dressing up in yellow and all that craziness to mark this occasion. It’s over the top for me.
Eindhoven v Graafshap
I felt this was a match I expected to start slowly, so I backed the under goals market.
I exited out of the trade for a profit after 20 minutes.
Excelsior v NEC Breda
Another match I expected to start slowly and another profitable trade before a goal went in around the 30th minute.
I started the week with £832.55
The balance is now £854.34
I've now updated the monthly report which is here. I don't like to calculate the total amount until the last day of the month but I'm somewhat pleasantly surprised with this months returns.
I’m now going to take a week off from trading the football. It's been my intention to have a week away, regardless of the outcome of my earnings in January. I believe having time away is healthy so I can recharge the batteries. I’m calling it my mid-season break!
I’ll be back trading, placing those back and lay orders in the markets next Saturday the 8th of February.
I had some issues with the application I use to write my notes, so I wasn’t able to write many details about my trades on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On Thursday, I introduced some new trading methods into my trading “toolbox”. After a couple of weeks of paper trading, I decided to start using them with minimal stakes. If I feel comfortable using them and the results look positive, I’ll use my standard stakes.
Three matches made the shortlist today. Only two met the criteria in-play.
Atalanta v Spal
With the match 1-0 at half-time, I expected at least another goal if not two, so I placed an order to back the overs goal market. Time for a cuppa tea while I wait for the minutes to progress and my orders to be matched.
Spal pulled it back level just one minute after my first order was matched. Seeing as my other orders were now cancelled, I decided to remove the liability to eke out a little more profit rather than cash out. Worse case is this will be a scratch-free trade.
Well, I didn’t have to wait long. Spal made it 1-2 six minutes later.
WBA v Stoke
West Brom is fighting for promotion but was 0-1 down at half-time. I decided to place some orders in the over goals market expecting West Brom to get back into this game.
Well, I didn’t see that happening. West Brom, at home, pushing for the title, odds-on favourite with the market makers - but lost and didn’t even get on the score sheet.
A disappointing loss.
I had issues accessing my laptop’s notes, so all I can do is record the trades from my Excel tracking sheet.
Macclesfield v Crewe o/u 1.5 goals = Win
Sheff United v Man City o/u 1.5 goals = Win
Aston Villa v Watford o/u 1.5 goals = Win
Everton v Newcastle o/u 1.5 goals = Win
Everton v Newcastle was a crazy finish. Newcastle scored two goals in the 94th and 96th minute to equalise 2-2.
Like yesterday I couldn't access my app where I keep my notes, so I wasn't able to document the trades in more detail. Here’s a record though — not a great day of trading.
OFI Crete v Olympiakos o/u 1.5 goals = Scratch
Charlton v Fulham o/u 1.5 goals = Loss
Man United v Burnley o/u 0.5 goals = Loss
A bit of tweaking and performed some upgrades and I now have access to the application where I keep my trading notes.
I’ve been paper trading some methods over the past few weeks, and I’m now going to introduce them into my “toolbox” using minimal stakes. Therefore I don’t expect to see any significant returns until I increase my stakes in the future.
Asteras v Panionios
Greek Super League
With the score 1-0 at half time, I had a feeling there would be another goal or more in this game, so I layed Under 2.5 goals.
Asteras made it 2-0 after 53 minutes, but there were no further goals. The result was a scratch trade.
Lamia v PAOK
Greek Super League
I thought PAOK would go on to win this match easily, but they only managed to win 0-1. As a result, I lost out trading the over/under goals market.
Galatasaray v Rizespor
This was an LTD trade. Although many football traders use this method, I’ve spent some time, since around Christmas I would say, studying variations of how to trade this method. This was a trade using small stakes as I look to tweak and modify my selection criteria, my entry and exit and finalise my risk management.
The trade was a winning trade which was good to see. Again, nothing significant while I use small stakes for the time being.
Aris v Xanthi
Greek Super League
Like with the Galatasaray match, another LTD trade as I continue to test my methods. This was also a profitable trade.
Antwerp v Kortrik
An LTD trade but the away underdog scored first, so the odds only went up just above my entry price. Fearing Antwerp were likely to equalise making it 1-1 I decided to cash out and earn a small profit, although would look more like a break-even trade.
Antwerp did make it 1-1 before full-time.
Wolves v Liverpool
A winning LTD trade. Firmino scoring to make it 1-2 within the last ten minutes.
Leonesa v Atletico Madrid
Copa Del Rey
This was a surprising scoreline at the end of regular time. It was 1-1 before going into extra time. I was trading the goals market in this game and came away with a scratch trade or a small loss due to the Betfair seven seconds delay.
Leonesa went on to win in extra time and progress!!
On Monday I started with the balance at £839.42
The balance is now at £833.96
A week to go before the end of the month. I'm still aiming towards a 10-15% ROI this month.
The start of a new week so let's get going.
Not many games that satisfied my selection rules, so I decided to scalp some games this evening. I'm still new to scalping, so I'm keeping my stakes to a manageable size until I get the hang of it. I have to understand I need to be patient with this style of trading. Learn to walk before running.
Jong AZ v FC Oss
Scalping the market in the first half and ended up scratching this match. No win, but more importantly, no loss.
Lorient v Caen
French Ligue 2
I was scalping the under/over 3.5 goals market during the first half of this game. I came away with a small profit.
Parma v Lecce
This match was one I shortlisted earlier in the day to trade. After analysing the stats, I felt this game would start slow. I chose to back the under goals market and trade out during the first half.
As expected, the game did start slowly, and I earned a profit.
A few markets I scalped in-play.
Lazio v Cremonese (Coppa Italia) = £0.00 Scratch trade
Coventry v Bristol Rovers (FA Cup) = £1.82
Malaga v Ponferradina (Segunda Division) = £1.17
Blackpool v Reading (FA Cup) = £2.33
Burton v MK Dons
In the last 12 home games, Burton has failed to score within the first 20 minutes of their games.
After analysing the stats further, I opened an order to back the under goals market and then to exit during the first half depending on how the game was going.
Ooh so close. I was ready to place my order to remove the liability and then the audible notification comes through from flashscore. Burton scored in the 20th minute. I then referred to my trading plan I keep in OneNote, documenting the process I'm to follow.
Although there was a goal, I exited the trade with a break-even result (well a few pennies in profit!)
Although it wasn't a significant win, it was satisfying to know I followed my trading plan correctly and what was looking like a losing trade at first, resulting in a break-even return.
Wednesday's scalping trade:
Olympiacos v Kalamata (Greek Cup) = £0.00 scratch
Rizespor v Galatasaray
Although Galatasaray is well known to the average football fan outside of Turkey, they were not odds on favourites. After looking at the stats, I expected the match to finish as a low scoring game.
I entered an order backing under goals market.
I had to work hard in this trade, manging my entries along the way. It was worth it, though, as I came away with a profit. The match ended 1-1.
Rayo Vallecano v Lugo
After looking at the stats, I anticipated this game to be a low scoring match. One of the statistics I noticed is 66% of the last six home league games for Vallecano finished under 2.5 goals.
I backed the under 2.5 goals.
The score ended 1-0 to Vallecano, and I had a profitable trade.
Cadiz v Mirandes
In recent form, both sides, either score or concede a goal in the first half. In the last five league matches at home Cadiz have an 80% record. Mirandes in their previous five away league games has a stat of 100%.
I decided to trade the over 0.5 goals in the first half, entering multiple orders.
This match returned a profitable trade. The score was 1-1 at half time.
Overall a decent evening of trading!
Deportivo v Racing Santander
50% of Deportivo's last six home games finished under 2.5 goals. For Racing Santander the stat is over 80% of their previous six away league games finishing under 2.5 goals.
I placed some orders into the under goals market, expecting a low scoring match.
The trade worked out as I walked away with the profit. The final score was 2-1.
Girona v Extremadura UD
66% of Girona's last six home games concluded under 2.5 goals. 50% of Extremadura UD's last six away league games finished under 2.5 goals.
I decided to trade the under goals market.
This time it didn't work out. The score was 2-0 at half-time and the game finished 3-1 so more goals than I expected.
I started the week at £813.01.
Balance is now £846.06
Happy New year, everyone. I'm looking forward to seeing where my trading will take me this year. I have some short-term and long-term goals for my trading in 2020.
Over the holidays, I was reading some other blogs and articles and what is apparent is that I should be clear in my approach to compound my earnings either daily, weekly or monthly. I have been compounding and adjusting my stakes without any real process until now. Still, going forward I'll be strict in compounding every week and changing the stake amounts on Monday's.
Here's how New years day and Thursday’s trades went.
Wednesday 01-January-20 (New Years Day)
I spent the day with family, so I wasn't at my laptop to type my trading notes, but I still managed to place some trades in between activities. Here's how the trades went.
Derby v Barnsley
While looking at the recent form, I expected the game to start slow so I decided to Back the Under's market from the kickoff and trade out during the first-half if the score was still 0-0.
As the match progressed the score stayed 0-0, and I had hit my target price, so I exited the trade for a winning trade.
Liverpool v Sheff United
League leaders (and most would say confirmed Champions) Liverpool hosted Sheffield United. I decided to wait until half-time to enter the trade so I could watch the first half.
With so many games played over the holiday season, I wasn't sure how the game would turn out. Many players are exhausted due to the fixture congestion, and it could impact the performance.
At half time the score was 1-0 to Liverpool. I expected at least one more goal, maybe even two, so I decided to Dutch two scores, both 3-0 and 2-1.
Mane scored for Liverpool making it 2-0, so this allowed me to remove the liability from the trade and let it run. Another goal to make it 3-0 or 2-1 would lock in a profit.
It wasn't to be though as the score finished 2-0. Therefore a scratch trade.
I'm happy with how the start of the new year has gone. Six trades in two days. Five wins and one scratch trade.
Starting balance for 2020 was £754.81.
Balance is now £800.46
During the holiday season, I've been busy wrapping presents, attending family gatherings and meeting up with my friends, so I was unable to write up my thoughts and analysis for each of my trades.
So I don't lose track of my P&L within this blog, I've taken a screenshot of my results. My usual blog posts with further detail will resume next week.
It's been some time since Wigan last had a 0-0 away from home. Blackburn has had just the one in recent times. The "under 1.5 goals" market price during the second half was around 1.40, so I decided to lay this market as it was providing a decent Risk v Reward ratio.
I intended to lock in a profit if there's a goal and then let it run and see if there is a second goal before the final whistle.
Blackburn hit the bar in the 75th minute which I thought that was the moment to remove the liability then enjoy the final fifteen minutes, but it wasn't to be, and the game ended 0-0.
Here's a summary of how the rest of my trading went over Christmas.
There were some wins, some scratch break-even trades and of course some losses.
It's the end of a month, the end of a year and the end of a decade.
It didn't go too well during the festive season. I never really felt I was trading in the zone. Maybe it's because I was trying to "fit" trading into a hectic time and in hindsight, I wasn't dedicating 100% of my time to my football trading. Overall the P&L ended -£5.53
As I've done in the past, I've updated the "monthly report" page. What's interesting is I had a better win rate than I've had previously, but my ROI for December was lower compared to previous months.
Since I began this blog on the 1-August-2019, I've earned a profit of £494.81, which over five months is a 190% Return on Investment (ROI). Starting with £260 the balance is now £754.81
Reflecting on 2019, even before I started writing the blog, I've learned a lot in both trading methods, but for me, more importantly, is continuing to improve my mindset. I still have a lot more to learn though!
In recent months I've been flexible and adapted my trading methods while conscious of how much I will risk before I open a trade. My intention is always to ensure I'm here for the long term and not risk destroying my bank, but it's a balancing act as I don't want to be too conservative either. It can be tedious using small, manageable stakes, compared to the significant stakes and P&L I see from other sports traders online, but I want to "try" and stay disciplined and treat the amount I have to trade as if it was a larger balance.
September showed high returns, but I was risking between 7-12% of the total balance, per trade, and I didn't feel comfortable risking that outlay over the long term. I do get times when I consider increasing my risk from the current 2% (ish) stakes, back up to those earlier amounts and go for it!
Overall I'm happy with how it's going but still learning. Let's see where I'll be this time next year?
Happy New Year, everyone!
The build-up to Christmas is underway. Presents bought, work commitments are close to complete before I take a couple of weeks off for the holidays and tickets purchased to watch the new Star Wars movie at the weekend.
With such a hectic (but fun) time over Christmas, I wonder how many football trades I'll open. I still desire to achieve my monthly goal of earning a 10-15% return on my balance recorded on the 1-December.
Here's how my mid-week football trading went.
Crystal Palace v Brighton
I kept an eye on this game, watching to see if I could Lay the Draw during the second half. When I noticed it was 0-0, I placed an order in the market. The order was matched a few minutes later.
Brighton took the lead, gaining a one-nil lead. As there was a lot of time remaining in the match and Palace were at home, I decided to "cash-out" rather than remove the liability in this trade. I could see Crystal Palace equalising before full-time.
Palace did just that, making it 1-1. It was an excellent decision to cash out instead of just creating a risk-free trade.
In recent history, very few games in the Bundesliga have finished 0-0, so I was scanning the evenings Bundesliga matches for opportunities to oppose the score or Lay the Draw at 0-0.
Union Berlin v Hoffenheim
The score was 0-0 at half-time, so I placed an order to Lay the Draw in the second half at 2.50. I had to wait approximately ten minutes for the order to be matched.
The goal then arrived in the 56th minute when Hoffenheim took the lead. I removed the liability from the trade rather than cashing out. The risk of doing so is the match could end a draw, so it becomes a scratch, no win, trade. If there's a winner, then my returns have increased.
Hoffenheim scored in the last minute to make it 0-2, so it remained a winning trade.
I was watching Dortmund v RB Leipzig on BT Sport. I wasn't trading the game, but it was great to watch. It was 2-0 at half-time then Leipzig pulled it back to 2-2. Sancho made it 3-2 for Dortmund only for Leipzig to make it 3-3. Plenty of goals to relish for the neutral.
Barcelona v Real Madrid
The "El Clasico" was on Premier Sports, so I hunkered down on the sofa not expecting to trade the match unless there was an opportunity in the second half.
Real Madrid started well, but the score remained 0-0 at half-time. Here's a stat to share. The last time a match finished 0-0 between these two giant clubs was 17 years ago back in 2002. So can you guess what I did here?
I opened an order in the market to Lay the Draw at odds of 2.50. Surely there would be a goal in the game?
Well, that didn't go to plan. Surprisingly, the match finished 0-0. I wonder how many other football traders expected this El Clasico to remain 0-0? I was frustrated, but I would say eight out of ten times I would have traded the same way, assuming there'd be a goal.
Not many trades placed this week as hardly any matches met my pre-match criteria and made it onto my daily shortlist. I then wait for the games to go in play and look for an angle to enter the market.
I started the week with £769.75
P&L for the mid-week trades: -£5.39
The balance is now £764.36
Unfortunately, the mid-week trades resulted in a negative return. I'm continually looking at ways to improve as a sports trader. Something is clear, which is I need a better strike rate with the Lay the Draw method, or I need to enter the market with lower odds, reducing my risk. I won 2, lost one, which is a 66%-win rate, but I still finished with a loss.
It's something I need to adjust over the weekend.
Happy sports trading everyone.
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.