As the well-known leagues in Europe have postponed their fixtures due to the coronavirus, I’m looking further afield. The leagues in South America and Africa have been added to my shortlist to monitor.
The risk is I’m not familiar with many of the teams, so as a result, I’ll likely be reducing my stakes.
Let’s see how it goes.
Brisbane Roar v Central Coast
This is a league I usually trade so for this match I used my usual staking plan.
With the score 1-0 at Half-time, I felt there were more goals in the game, so I layed the under goals market in the second half.
The goal I was expecting to arrive never occurred and the match finished 1-0.
It wasn’t the best start to a weekend.
Oh, and to top this off, I had a losing day at Cheltenham as well, but this is a separate account and doesn't impact my “sports trading” balance.
Kasimpasa v Goztepe
Turkish Super Lig
With decent first half in-play stats and the score 1-0, I decided to place an order to lay the under goals market during the second half. If the score stayed 1-0, then it would be my second loss of the day.
The second goal arrived, but I had to wait until the very end. The home side scored making it 2-0 in the 94th minute! Wow, that was close.
New staking plan kicks in today when I’m trading football leagues I’m not familiar with.
AS Mlila v Hissein Day
Algerian Ligue 1
With the score 0-0, I decided to lay the under goals market.
It turned out to be a winning trade when the home side scored in the 94th minute winning 1-0.
MC Alger v Magra
Algerian Ligue 1
Another trade in Algeria. With the score 2-0, I decided this time to back the under goals market with the home team winning. My plan was then to remove some liability as time goes by and then cash out before the game get’s too hot.
It didn’t go to plan as there was an early goal. Rather than stay in the trade and making it a bet and hope there are no more goals, I stayed disciplined and cashed out for a red loss.
Serbian Super Ligue
This was another loss backing the under goals market. Managed to remove some liability before the home team scored in the second half but it was still a red trade.
Mushuc Runa v Macara
Ecuadorian Serie A
A match I was given a heads up on in a Telegram group I’m part of, but I waited until the price met my criteria before opening an order. I layed the under goals market with the score 1-0, and I was looking for a goal.
The goal arrived in the 82nd minute, making it 2-0, so this was a winning trade.
Tomsk v Krasnodar II
I managed to place this trade before going to visit my parents for bacon butties and coffee.
The home side was 1-0 up at half-time. While looking at the in-play stats, I was confident there was going to be another goal in the second half, so I set an order to lay the under 1.5 goals market.
I placed the order at a lower price than being offered to reduce my liability. I could have layed the correct score, but I stuck with the goals market.
The order was matched before the second goal arrived in the 70th minute. A winning trade to start the day.
The match finished Tomsk 2-1 Krasnodar II
Ho Chi Minh City v Thanh Hoa
I’ll be honest; I don’t believe I’ve ever traded a match being played in Vietnam.
The score was 0-0 at half-time. The stats showed this game was not exactly producing end to end action, so I decided to back the under 1.5 goals market and remove my liability as time went by.
By the 60th minute, the score was still 0-0, and I had removed all of my liability, so this was now a risk-free trade.
There was a late goal, and the score ended 1-0, but this was enough for a winning trade.
CSKA Moscow v FC Ufa
Russian Premier League
This was a match I decided to get involved in after listening to Ian (over at FTSIncome) daily podcast. It’s a great podcast by the way, so if you’re reading this, go check it out.
I backed the over 2.5 goals with a couple of orders midway through the first half.
The score was 0-0 at half-time, but I stayed in to see if there would be an early goal in the second half.
Time progressed, and the price was running away from me, so I cashed out for a loss around the 60th minute with the score still 0-0. Never mind; move on.
The match finished 0-0, so I was pleased to exit when I did.
AA Portuguesa v Sao Caetano
Brazilian Paulista Serie A2
Another first for me. I’ve never traded matches in this league before. The score was 1-0 to the home side so again while looking at the stats, they met my criteria, and I anticipated another goal coming. Instead of laying the correct score market, I once again layed the under 1.5 goals market.
My order was matched and the second goal arrived in the 66th minute, and therefore this turned out to be a winning trade.
Fakel v Luch-Energiya
With the score 0-0 at half time and the under 0.5 goals market offers pretty low odds at the start of the second half, I decided to place an order.
I was a bit concerned I might get “fakel” out of this trade, but it worked out well when the home side took the lead in the 65th minute.
Mirassol v Santo Andre
Brazilian Paulista Serie A1
Another match I was notified about in a Telegram group. The score was 1-0 to the home side, so I looked at the stats. I was happy with what I saw, so I decided to open an order to lay the under 1.5 goals market. Some have asked me why I don’t just lay the correct score instead. To be honest for me, I don’t see any difference except for the liquidity. At the end of the day, either market needs a goal to win.
This trade never worked out for me as the game finished 1-0 and so it was a losing trade.
Overall a productive day of trading, although I’m not sure it’s covered my losses for the weekend. I’ll find out in a moment and will post it below in the summary section.
I started the weekend £1008.89
The balance is now £1007.33
It wasn’t the best weekend, with a small negative return but the damage to my bank was minimal. With the lack of football being played throughout the world this weekend, I’ll take this.
Here’s how the weekends trading went.
Excelsior v Maastricht
I enjoy trading Dutch football. There are usually goals involved, so when I saw the score was still 0-0 in this match, I decided to place a couple of orders in the over goals market.
Just before my second order was matched, Excelsior took the lead. As I only had the one order in the market, I decided to remove the liability, make it a risk-free trade and wait to see if there was going to be a second goal.
The second goal arrived in the 75th minute, so this became a winning trade.
Excelsior won the match 3-0.
I didn’t have much time to trade today as I had other commitments, but I managed to get involved on three trades.
Eibar v Mallorca
Mallorca was leading in the second half 0-1, so I decided to back the over goals market expecting Eibar to get back into the game.
I’m glad I backed the goals market as the second goal was scored by the away side Mallorca making it 0-2. All I needed was a goal, so this was a winning trade.
Eiber pulled a goal back but lost 1-2.
Wolves v Brighton
Wigan v Luton
Both games ended 0-0 so therefore two losing “over goals market” trades. Not a lot to say other than “it happens”.
Not a great Saturday as I only had time to place three trades and two of those happened to be losers. Typical.
Bayern Munich v Augsburg
Just the one trade today as I was busy with the family, but I managed to enter a trade on this match with the score still 0-0. I backed the over goals market in the second half.
Only one of my orders was matched before Bayern Munich took the lead. Therefore I removed my liability and wait to see if there was another goal.
Bayern Munich scored again, so it was a winning trade. I didn't get high odds for this match, so it wasn’t a great return, but it was a win.
I started the weekend with £981.17
The balance now sits at £963.14.
A losing weekend as I still work towards the £1,000 milestone.
Here’s how my trading went as February comes to a close.
Sydney FC vs Western Sydney
With the score 0-0 midway through the second half, I opposed the score.
It was a winning trade when the away side Western Sydney took a 0-1 lead and won the game. A profitable trade to kick start a final couple of days of February.
Other games I traded
Aarhus v Hobro
Lay under goals market was a losing trade.
Portimonense v Setubal
Lay the under goals market was another loss.
Overall a slightly red trading day.
I wasn’t in front of my laptop to type up my thoughts as I trade, but for my records, here were the results.
All trades were placed in the over/under market.
Empoli v Pordenone was a loss
WBA v Wigan was a win
Exeter v Crawley was a win
PSG v Dijon was a loss
Sparta Prague v Zlin was a win
Zenit v Lokomotiv was a loss
Watford v Liverpool was a win
Started with £910.13
The balance is now £911.10
Not an excellent finish. Pretty much a break-even weekend.
I’ve worked out my returns for the month which I've posted in the monthly report page. I didn't achieve as much as I was hoping for, but at the same time, I missed the first week of February, plus I have to accept the variance that comes with trading sport.
Not many trades placed mid-week so I've combined a full weeks worth of trades in this post.
JS Kabylie v Paradou
Ligue 1 (Algeria)
Kabylie was playing well at home and are positioned towards the top of the table.
At half-time, the score was still 0-0. Due to the lack of knowledge, I have in this league; I went with a minimal stake to lay the under goals market in the second half.
Paradou scored in the 69th minute, but it was ruled out.
The price then went on to hit my pre-determined stop-loss, so I exited the trade for a loss. The match went on to finish 0-0.
Belouizdad v Hussein Dey
Ligue 1 (Algeria)
Belouizdad was sitting at the top of the table, hosting Hussein Dey who is in a relegation battle. At half time the score was 0-0.
I decided to open a lay position in the under goals market but noting down a price to exit if the price moves against me.
This worked out. The home side scored a goal in the 73rd minute so this was a win that made up for the earlier loss in Algeria.
A break-even day. Won 1, Lost 1.
No trades placed since Monday. I was prepared to trade, but either the schedule of matches never met my criteria or I couldn't find an angle or value in-play, to open a position.
Brescia v Napoli
I entered two trades from the start. First I backed over 1.5 FHG and then placed an order later in the first half backing over 0.5 FHG.
Brescia scored in the 27th minute. The Over 0.5 FHG order had only just been matched and was an instant win, and then I removed the liability in the over 1.5 FHG trade.
The half ended 1-0 so one trade was a winner. The over 1.5 FHG was a scratch trade.
Guingamp v Sochaux
Guingamp, favourites at home, was losing 0-1 at Half time so I layed the under goals market.
The equalising goal arrived in the 62nd minute and was a winning trade.
Clermont v Paris FC
The score was 0-0 at HT. Clermont were clear favourites, and I believed they would score in the second half. Rather than back them, I placed an order to lay the under goals market.
Surprisingly Paris FC went ahead 0-1 in the 78th minute. This was precisely the reason why I decided to trade the goals market and not the home favourite. This worked out and was a winning trade.
After a quiet midweek of trading, Friday turned out to be a satisfying day.
No trading during the afternoon as I had family commitments, but I was back at SportsTraydor HQ ready to trade some matches later in the day.
Leicester v Man City
With the score still 0-0 midway through the second half, I placed two orders in the over goals market. The worst-case scenario is if the game ends 0-0 I lose my 1 point stake.
Jesus gave Man City the lead in the 80th minute, and the match ended 0-1, so this was ended being a scratch trade.
Strasbourg v Amiens
Strasbourg, a definite favourite at home were being held 0-0 in the second half. I expected them to score and win the game so I layed the under goals market.
Well, it wasn’t to be. The price hit my pre-determined stop-loss, and I exited the trade for a loss. The match finished 0-0.
Groningen v VVV Venlo
There’s usually plenty of goals in Dutch football, so when I saw this game was 0-0 during the second half, I opened up an order to lay the under goals market.
I entered later in the match, with lower odds, so I could keep this trade open through to the final whistle. Thankfully for me, the goal arrived in the 87th minute and therefore was a winning trade.
Levante v Real Madrid
Wow, what can I say? I won this trade, laying the under goals market late in the second half.
I was confident Real Madrid would score the winner, but to my surprise, Levante scored the winner. I wasn’t expecting that, but it was a goal I needed, and therefore I finished Saturday with a winning trade.
Just the one trade today.
Heracles v Ajax
With the score still 0-0 late in the second half I was confident there would be a goal. My lay order on the under goals market was matched later than usual as the market was expecting a goal and the price reflected this.
One minute after my lay order was matched, Heracles took a surprising lead. This was enough for me to win the trade. Heracles went on to win the game.
I started the week with £906.56
P&L for this week +£38.91
The balance is now £945.47.
Although I didn't place many trades this past week, the results were pleasing, and I returned a profit.
A somewhat up and down weekend, as shown below. Or maybe it should read “down then up” weekend.
Adelaide United v Central Coast
I had this match shortlisted for an over 2.5 goals selection, but I never triggered the trade. When I saw it was still 0-0 in the 70th minute, I decided to open a position.
There was value in the over 0.5 goals market, so I placed an order that was matched shortly afterwards.
Adelaide scored in the 82nd minute, making it 1-0. This was enough for me to win. They then scored again in the 84th minute, making it 2-0, and that’s how the match finished.
St.Pauli v Dresden
It was 0-0 in the second half, so I decided to lay the draw. In hindsight, it was a silly trade as I was working on gut instinct and not the stats. I know I shouldn't, and as a result, it was a losing trade with the match ending 0-0.
Almere v Cambuur
I expected the game to start slow, so I backed the under goals market from the start and then removed my liability throughout the first half before exiting with a profit.
Eupen v Gent
Like with the Almere v Cambuur game I expected the game to start slowly. I decided to back the under goals market.
It was far from a slow start with a goal after 4 minutes, so I had to take an exit in the worst-case scenario as I was yet to remove any liability.
This can happen, and I'm prepared for it.
I’m glad I took the loss and not “gambled on staying in longer” as a second goal was scored two minutes later in the 6th minute. Gent then took the lead, making it 1-2 after 12 minutes.
A disappointing day of trading.
After a miserable day of trading yesterday, I was feeling refreshed and ready to go again.
Union Berlin v Leverkusen
Leverkusen went into the match as the away favourites. The under goals market was also showing some value, so I decided to place an order from the start and aim to exit midway through the first half.
Not a great start. I managed to remove some liability from the trade before Union Berlin scored in the 7th minute. A losing trade, but plenty more matches to go.
Southend v Coventry
I attempted to trade the under goals market, but the price had only moved around seven ticks in 7 minutes, so it was too “sticky” for my liking. Therefore I exited the trade.
Benevento v Pordenone
Benevento is running away with the Serie B title. When I saw they were leading “just” 1-0 at half-time, I looked further into the in-play stats to find an angle. I felt there was another goal in the match.
Pordenone are fighting to stay in contention for the playoffs, so they were likely to try and score. I opened a position in the over goals market.
Only one of my orders was matched before the second goal arrived, so I decided to remove the liability and try and generate a little more value than if I cashed out straight away. The worse case is it’ll be a scratch trade.
Pordenone scored in the 90th minute, making it 2-1 and therefore a winning trade.
Derby v Huddersfield
Derby’s form at home has been good of late, so with the score still level at 0-0, I decided to enter the over goals market.
My first order was matched in the 55th minute. Moments later Derby took the lead. Only a small win as just the one order was matched.
Middlesbrough v Luton
Luton’s away form has been awful of late as they struggle to survive in the Championship. When I saw they were leading 0-1 in the second half, I expected there would be another goal, most likely coming from the Middlesbrough.
Time was against me. With no further goals, the price hit my stop loss and so sticking to my rules; I left the market and took the loss.
Santa Clara v Tondela
With the score level at half-time, I decided to place a few orders in the over goals market.
As time moved closer towards the final stages of the match, I was starting to think this was going to be a losing trade.
With all of my orders matched, Santa Clara scored and took a 1-0 lead. I was pleased (or was it a sigh of relief) when I saw this goal go in. A winning trade and with 100% of my orders matched.
Sparta Prague v Liberec
1. Liga (Czech Rep)
I opened a few orders in the over goals market, expecting at least a goal in the second half.
Like in the Santa Clara v Tondela game, time was running away from me, so I was pleased when a late goal was scored. With all my orders matched in the over goals market, this was a welcome sight.
Liberec went on to win the match 0-2
Norwich v Liverpool
This was not a match I expected to be trading, but when I saw the score was still 0-0 in the 66th minute I “had to” find an angle to get involved. Reviewing the various trading methods I keep, I decided to lay the under goals market and cash out if and when there was a goal.
Mane scored in the 77th minute for Liverpool, and as a result, this was a winning trade.
Overall I had a decent day of trading, and it made up for the hopeless day yesterday.
Storm Dennis has arrived, so I kept an eye on possible postponements in the UK.
Beroe v Etar
Beroe was looking for a win to move into the play-off positions. When I recognised the score was 0-0 midway through the second half, I looked at the recent form before entering a trade.
Recently neither side has finished 0-0 in the league, so I opened a position to lay the under goals market but set myself a stop loss if the price moved too far away from me. I prefer to do this, so I try to get a decent risk v reward ratio.
The price hit my stop-loss, so I had to stay disciplined and exit for a loss.
Typically, minutes later, Beroe scored. They then scored a second in injury time winning 2-0. It makes me feel like I've been robbed, but this is trading, and at least I stuck to my rules to exit when I planned too. Oh well!
Alanyaspor v Genclerbirligi
Turkish Super Lig
This was a lively game in the second half, so I entered the market laying the under goals market.
Not long after my order was matched the underdog, Genclerbirligi, scored making it 0-1. This was good enough for me to win the trade.
This win helps the pain of that earlier loss in Bulgaria.
Aberdeen v Celtic
An interesting one for me. The score was 1-1. Celtic are playing away, but without a shot on target in the second half after 70 minutes. Yet, I still felt like there could be another goal in the match. It’s Celtic after all!
I decided to lay the under goals market expecting there to be another goal.
There it was. Celtic made it 1-2 in the 82nd minute. A winning trade.
Frosinone v Perugia
Frosinone, playing well and sit near the top of Serie B were being held by Perugia. It was 0-0 in the 60th minute, and the price on offer in the under goals market was appealing. Lower than I usually see, so I decided to lay the under goals market.
Frosinone scored to make it 1-0 in the 65th minute and a winning trade.
Aston Villa v Tottenham
This match was played live on Sky Sports. It was a lively game, and even at 2-2, it looked like there could be another goal. I don’t usually trade matches with a 2-2 score, as I tend to feel the game has "dried up" of goals, but it felt different, and I didn’t want to miss this opportunity.
Due to the current scoreline, I entered with a smaller stake than usual, laying the under goals market.
Gooaaall! Son scores for Tottenham in the 94th minute to win the match 2-3 and completed a weekend of trading with a (small) winning trade. Well, what a “Son”day it's been.
I started the weekend with £876.24
P&L this weekend +£30.32
The sports trading balance is now £906.56
I’ve broken the £900 milestone. Next up is £1,000!!
After a miserable day of trading on Friday, I’m happy with the outcome. Looking back at my trades, it appears my second half trading did well.
After a week-long, self-imposed winter mid-season break from trading, I’m back in front of the trading station.
During my week off, I read a book, “Think And Grow Rich” by Napolean Hill. Well worth the read. I also spent some time researching and learning about tennis trading. I didn’t place any trades, as that’s the point of having a week off.
I’m feeling refreshed and ready to go
Stuttgart v Aue
Stuttgart was winning 2-0 at half-time with a comfortable lead at home, and without reason to rush for a third goal, I expected the second half to start slow. I, therefore, backed the under goals market for a quick scalp.
After 7 minutes into the second half, the game was uneventful.
I partially exited the trade with a lay bet to reduce my liability in case of an early goal and then fully exited in the 59th minute with the score still 2-0.
The match finished 3-0. Stuttgart scored their third in the 90th minute.
Fiorentina v Atalanta
Pre-match stats show that this might be a slow scoring game, at least in the first half. I decided to back the under goals market from the kick-off and then, by following my trading plan, exit later in the first half.
After 13 minutes just the one attempt at goal. Neither side has had a shot on target, so I left my full risk in the market.
Eighteen minutes passed, and Atalanta had a couple of shots on target, so I layed off some of the risks in case of a goal. I still kept the rest of my order in the market for a little longer.
I exited for a profit after 29 minutes. Just in time as three minutes later, Fiorentina took the lead.
Atalanta turned the match around and won 1-2.
Schalke v Paderborn
Stats were showing that this game might start slow in the first half, so I backed the under goals market from kick-off.
Eleven minutes in and not much is happening. The one-shot from the away side so I left my full risk in the market and waited a little longer to lay off some of this risk.
I cashed out for a profit after 32 minutes with the score 0-0.
Freiburg v Hoffenheim
This match was taking place at the same time as the Schalke match, so I had to manage both trades at the same time. I entered the market using the same method, backing the under goals market.
Ten minutes in and the market price wasn’t moving. It’s what I call ”sticky”. When this happens, it’s best to cash out and leave this trade alone. The price touched a few ticks in my favour so a minimal “green” return.
Marseille v Toulouse
I entered the market from kick-off, backing the under goals market.
Like in the Freiburg game the market wasn’t moving as much as I would have liked so exited the trader soon than I wanted. A small profit, though.
Overall it was a decent start to February.
Started the weekend with £854.34
Balance is now £872.64
After a couple of weeks of negative returns, it was time to put things back on track. Before this weekend I was still on target to achieve my monthly goal of 10-15%, but it’s going to be closer than I’d like.
Armed with a couple of updated trading methods, I was ready for the weekend ahead.
My staking plan is to use between 1-1.5% of the current trading bank balance.
Utrecht v Den Haag
In previous matches, both sides appear to be involved in games with at least one or more goals. Four of the last five home games for Utrecht produced over 1.5 goals. Looking at Den Haag’s away form, they are the same.
Anticipating goals and a win for either side I opened an order in the market to lay the draw in the first half.
Utrecht took the lead in the 16th minute. They went on to win 4-0 — a winning trade.
Osasuna v Levante
A mid-table La Liga clash between two sides that have drawn two games from the last ten combined. After analysing the stats further and looking at the odds to see if there was any value, I opened an order to lay the draw.
It was 0-0 at half-time. I stuck with it into the second half.
Time was running out and sticking with my trading plan. I exited the trade for a controlled loss.
I continued to analyse the game and felt there was a goal coming, so I entered an order to back over 0.5 goals in the final stages of the game. It worked out as Osasuna scored twice winning 2-0. Overal a losing trade though.
A couple of over 1.5 goal trades this evening.
Caen v Ajaccio Ligue 2 was a win
Nice v Rennes Ligue 1 was a win
I was out with the family, so I was unable to write up my comments as I traded these matches.
Wolfsburg v Hertha Berlin German Bundesliga (o/u 1.5 goals) Win
Southampton v Tottenham FA Cup (o.u 0.5 goals) Win
Valencia v Barcelona La Liga (o/u 0.5 goals) Win
Marseille v Angers Ligue 1 (o/u 1.5 goals) Lost
Fenerbahce v Basaksehir Super Lig (o/u 1.5 goals) Win
Sparta Rotterdam v Sittard Eredivisie (o/u 2.5 goals) Win
Willem II v Zwolle Eredivisie (o/u 1.5 goals] was a loss
Crotone v Spezia Serie B (o/u 2.5 goals) a win
Famalicao v Santa Clara Primeira League (o/u 1.5 goals) was a loss
PSV v FC Twente Eredivisie (o/u 2.5 goals) was a win
Leverkusen v Dusseldorf Bundesliga (o/u 2.5 goals) was a win
Lille v PSG Ligue 1 (o/u 2.5 goals) was a win
Antwerp v Waragem Jupiler League (o/u 3.5 goals) was a win
The past few weeks have been a challenge. I need to analyse my trades better and see what my strengths and weaknesses are. I know many traders go through periods of self-doubt, and it’s a mindset thing when you don’t see the expected positive returns.
My strike rate seems to be OK as I win more than I lose, but I question my methods if I’m drip-feeding orders into the market. A goal arrives when only one order is matched, the earnings are minimal, but then the losses are more significant and therefore, the risk to reward ratio is skewed.
I’m still here and enjoying the challenge though, and overall I’m positive and feel good about the future.
Something else I’m going to start looking at is trading tennis. After all, it's called “SportsTraydor” not “FootballTraydor”. I recall when I was trading Forex, I understood that you had to diversify, so trading football and another sport will help me to achieve this.
I started the weekend with £833.96
The balance is now £832.55
Just one more week remains to trade the markets in January.
Friday night results.
FC Oss v Cambuur Eerste Divisie was a losing trade when Cambuur took an early lead.
Zwolle v Utrecht Eerste Divisie was a first-half trade that I won.
Excelsior v Telstar Eerste Divisie was another wining trade in the first half. Only one of my orders matched, so the profits were minimal.
Frosinone v Pordenone Serie B. A significant loss for me in this trade, trading the under/over 2.5 goals market.
I was feeling tired this evening; I shouldn't have traded.
After a decent night's sleep, I feel refreshed and ready to go after yesterday.
Melbourne City v Newcastle Jets
The stats looked towards goals. At half-time, Melbourne was winning 1-0. I believed there would be at least another goal, so I placed some orders into the over 2.5 goals market.
The second goal arrived in the 63rd minute. Only one of my orders was matched, so I removed the liability to create a risk-free trade. The match finished 2-0 and therefore a scratch trade.
Rotherham v Bristol Rovers
The score was 0-0 at half-time. I backed over 2.5 goals at the start of the second half.
Rotherham scored in the 52nd and 53rd minute, and I cashed out for a small win.
Rotherham won 3-0.
Real Madrid v Sevilla
I shortlisted this game but was astonished when the score was still 0-0, and I saw you could get around 6.0 odds for over 2.5 goals after 50 mins gone.
I placed a couple of orders to back over 2.5 goals.
The odds went up to 9.0 before Real Madrid scored in the 60th minute. Sevilla then scored in the 65th minute.
The match finished 2-1.
This trade was a decent win after cashing out after the first goal. I wish I left it open for longer!! Hindsight is a beautiful thing.
Brighton v Aston Villa
Brighton was leading 1-0 at half time. I reviewed the recent form and studied the goal markets and decided to back the over 2.5 goals market during the second half.
A winning trade when Aston Villa made it 1-1. That's how the game ended.
Man City v Crystal Palace
Palace was winning 0-1 at half-time away to Man City. The odds on the over 2.5 goals was too low to enter straight away as the market was expecting a goal at least.
I entered over 2.5 goals after 55 mins but decided to stick with my trading rule and exited for a small loss around 78-80 minutes. Moments later Man City scored two goals to take the lead 2-1. Then Crystal Palace brought it back to 2-2.
Wow, what a game, but gutted I exited with it 0-1. That's trading for you!
Guirames v Santa Clara
I placed a few orders in the over 2.5 goals market throughout the second half.
It was 0-0 approaching the end of the game, so I stuck to my plan and exited for a loss.
Guirames scored in the 90th minute to win 1-0. The goal arrived too late for me.
Here's my other trades on Saturday:
Gent v Mouscron Jupiler League (over/Under 2.5 goals) was a win
Napoli v Fiorentina Serie A (over/under 2.5 goals) was a win
Alkmaar v Willem II Eredivisie (over/under 2.5 goals) was a win
Here are the trades from Sunday
Atromitos v Volos Greek Super League (o/u 2.5 goals market) Loss
Liverpool v Man United Premier League (o/u 2.5 goals market) Loss
Famalicao v Maritimo Primeira League (o/u 2.5 goals market) Win
Barcelona v Granada La Liga (o/u 2.5 goals market) Scratch trade
Surprised the Liverpool v Man United game was 1-0 for so long. I was already out of the market when Salah scored in the last minute.
The weekend started with £846.06
The balance is now £839.42
Right, I'm going to forgot that colour of red. I'm feeling positive about my trading for the week ahead.
I'm likely feeling positive after re-reading (for the 3rd time) "Think And Grow Rich" by Napoleon Hill. A book I highly recommend.
Usually, I create two posts a week, but this week I've captured a full week’s worth of trades in the one post.
Here’s how it went.
There were several Serie A games today. I shortlisted a few of them, but only one match met my criteria.
Atalanta v Parma
With Atalanta winning 3-0 at half-time it was an easy decision for me to enter this trade. With a significant lead, I assumed they would take their foot off the pedal in the second half.
I entered the market, backing the under goal market, watching the price decrease with time decay.
I cashed out for a profit before the 60th minute for a small profit. I messed up my staking plan for this trade, but a win is a win.
Atalanta went on and won the match 5-0.
I wasn’t in front of my laptop to write about my trades, but here’s a record of how they turned out.
Not great, two losing trades.
Here’s a record of my Wednesday trades.
A decent Friday. It’s nice to start a weekend off with three from three.
I was back in front of my laptop today.
Brentford v QPR
A London derby to start a day of trading. Brentford sits near the top of the league and has scored at home in their last three games. QPR find themselves in 15th position.
I entered 0.5 points stake backing Over 1.5 goals midway through the first half. If it’s 0-0 during the second half, I’ll likely place another 0.5 point stake.
This trade worked out well. My order was matched a minute before Brentford took the lead from a well-worked free-kick. I removed the liability before Brentford made it 2-0 a few minutes later.
A small win as only a 0.5 point stake was matched, but it’s a win.
Brentford won the match 3-1.
Charlton v West Brom
West Brom away from home were the odds on favourites, but generally, I like to think the away team won't fly out the gate from the start, compared to playing at home in front of their home crowd.
I decided to back the unders goal market with the aim to exit during the first half for a profit if there’s no early goal. If the game starts quicker than I expect or if there is an early goal, I’ll exit out of the trade.
Kind of frustrating as I was planning on exiting around 20 mins as I could see a goal arriving. As I clicked the button to exit the trade, WBA goes and score. Therefore I cash out for a loss. So annoying.
The game ended 2-2.
Man United v Norwich
Man United was playing at home against a struggling Norwich City side, so I expected goals.
I place some orders in the over 1.5 goals market.
Rashford scored in the 27th minute so I could remove the liability. I then locked in the profit when Rashford scored his second.
Man United won the game 4-0.
Portsmouth v AFC Wimbledon
Portsmouth was playing at home. After analyzing the recent stats I decided to place orders over 1.5 goals.
Portsmouth scored in the 20th minute, so I removed my liability. When AFC Wimbledon equalised in the 62nd minute, my risk-free trade became a winner.
Portsmouth won the game 2-1.
Lazio v Napoli
I was expecting a slow start between two well-known teams in Italy. I decided to back the unders goal market and look to exit later in the first half.
Midway through the second half, the score was 0-0, so I decided to remove the liability and leave the trade alone. If there’s a lot of goals, I walk away with a scratch-free trade. If not, I win.
Lazio scored in the 82nd minute, but that was it, so it worked out to be a winning trade.
Inter v Atalanta
Inter Milan have scored or conceded a goal at home within the first 15 minutes, only once this season. Based on this I decided to back the unders goal market and trade out midway through the first half.
For Atalanta, there have been four goals either scored or conceded from a total of 31 in the nine away matches this season.
Well, that didn’t go as I planned. Inter scored in the 4th minute. What can I say? I reckon with the stats accessible to me; I would have entered the same trade again if I had to do so.
One more game left on the shortlist for today.
Setubal v Sporting Lisbon
Just the one goal scored or conceded at home in the first fifteen minutes this season for Setubal. There have also been several low scoring matches when they play at home in the league.
Same with the earlier Charlton, Inter and the Lazio games earlier, I placed orders in the unders goal market.
I removed the liability during the first half, so it became a risk-free trade.
It ended with a scratch trade as Sporting Lisbon won this game 1-3.
Here's a record of my Sunday football trades.
I started the week with a balance of £782.20
Balance is now £813.01. I’ve made it over £800!!.
It was the first weekend of fixtures since the festive holidays and some teams were participating in the 3rd round of the FA Cup. As a fan of football, I must confess I enjoy the FA Cup more than some of the European competitions.
It’s such a historic competition where all teams can envisage lifting the trophy. I realise it doesn't have the glamour it used to possess, and the Premier League clubs rank it lower than finishing in the top 4, but I embrace it. Who wouldn't like to see their team play in the final at Wembley Stadium?
After an excellent start to the new year, this is how my weekend of trading went.
Valladolid v Leganes
I was looking at the statistics between these two sides, and I believed there wasn't going to be many goals. I was presuming the first half will start slow.
In Valladolid's last five games at home, only one of them produced over 1.5 goals in the first half. The rest had one goal or less.
I decided to open a trade backing the Under 2.5 goals market, then plan to exit for a profit as the time progressed and time decay does its thing. If the game is more open than I would like, then I'll exit sooner than I plan to.
Four minutes into the match. Well, that did didn't go to plan. The goal arrived sooner than I expected. The markets overreacted so I chose to wait, let the market settle before I conceded and exit for a loss. While the market's settled down, I immediately went to make a cup of tea and speak with the Wife in the kitchen, which took me no more than five or six minutes (or so I thought).
I then returned to my laptop, preparing to exit the trade after the early goal and take the loss on the chin!
To my horror, another two goals had been scored in the 8th and then the 13th minute! Woah! Three goals in 13 minutes and as a result a 100% loss.
If I was following my trading plan, I "should" have been out after the first goal. I felt sick. I haven't screwed up as severe as this for some time. It was careless of me.
Bordeaux v Le Mans
Coupe de France
Bordeaux was playing at home in the French cup and were clear favourites priced at 1.58. Le Mans was at 6.8.
I chose to "Lay The Draw" midway through the first half with the score still 0-0. I then set myself a stop-loss and exit the trade if there were no goal later in the match. The Valladolid v Leganes trade was fresh in my memory so I was going to stick to my trading plan - and not become occupied with anything else.
The trade worked out. Bordeaux took the lead, so I cashed out for a profit. They went on to win the match 2-0
Seville v Ath. Bilbao
Like with the earlier Valladolid game, the stats were implying this match would also begin slow. In Seville's last five games there have not been over 1.5 goals in the first half. Looking at the Bilbao last five away games, just one had over 1.5 goals in the first half.
Not being scared or put off from the earlier trade in Spain, I opened an order to back the under goal market.
I had to work hard for this trade. A goal was scored after 15 mins then shortly afterwards, monitoring the game, I chose rather than cashing out I would instead remove the liability and let it run.
Because the goal was conceded in the first half, I made only a small profit. A win is a win, though.
Friday didn't go too well after the silly mistake I made earlier. I was always going to struggle to make a profit with that kind of loss. Onto Saturday!
When it comes to trading the FA Cup, I admit I need to be a little more cautious. After all, it’s a cup competition, and recent form and stats go out the window.
I don’t get put off trading cup games, but I understand it doesn’t suit all football traders.
Bristol City v Shrewsbury
FA Cup 3rd Round.
Bristol City is currently in 11th position in the Championship. Shrewsbury is now in 14th position in League One. Recent form for either side hasn't been exceptional but with match odds of 1.84 for Bristol City, playing at home, I considered this had “some” value.
I backed Bristol City from kick-off, looking to lock in a profit should they take the lead. If the score is level at Half-time, I’ll add another order if Bristol City is on top.
Bristol City took the lead in the 30th minute against the run of play to be fair.
I waited for the market to settle before opening a position to cash out. Not a significant return as I only had a 0.5 point stake matched before the goal.
The final result was 1-1. I wasn’t surprised as Shrewsbury played well and were unlucky to go a goal behind.
Reading v Blackpool
FA Cup 3rd Round
Reading is a Championship side playing at home against Blackpool from League One. Blackpool’s away form hasn’t been fabulous, without a win in their last five away games.
I placed an order just after kick-off to back Reading at home and then cash-out if and when they take the lead.
Blackpool took the lead in the first half, but I still believed Reading would get back into this, so I entered the markets again, with another 0.5 point stake. I now have the full 1 point in the trade.
Reading, as I expected equalised in the second half. Rather than cashing out, I removed the liability and then cheered Reading forward to get the win.
I decided to cash out for a small profit when Blackpool retook the lead making it 1-2.
Shortly after I exited the trade Reading pulled level to make it 2-2. In a way, I was kicking myself as leaving the trade as a risk-free trade would mean a nice profit if Reading turned it around, making it 3-2.
They didn’t turn it around, and the match ended 2-2. In hindsight, I was correct (or lucky) to cash out when Blackpool went 1-2 up.
Brighton v Sheffield Wednesday
FA Cup 3rd Round
I chose to get involved in this match not so much because of the pre-match stats but because Brighton at home is not an easy team to play. They're playing some decent football under Graham Potter.
Sheffield Wednesday are just outside the play-offs in the Championship and doing okay. I just believe Brighton will edge this one.
I opened an order and backed Brighton with a 0.5 point stake, looking for them to take the lead.
What can I say? That didn’t work out. Sheffield Wednesday took a lead in the second half. With less than 30 minutes in the game, I decided to cash out for a loss. I thought Brighton might equalise but not win the match with a limited amount of time left.
In the end, I was accurate to cash out for an early, limited loss, as Sheffield Wednesday held onto their lead and knocked the Premier League side out of the FA Cup winning 0-1.
Belenenses v Braga
Braga, the favourites, were away from home. In some matches, when the clear favourites are playing away, it sometimes takes time to get going, take it slow, quieten the home crowd down and be patient. I decided for this match to do some scalping from the start.
Five minutes in and the game was much livelier than I anticipated, so I chose to exit the trade early. I believed there was no need to stay in this trade if the game wasn’t going as I expected. I came out of the trade with a small profit.
Three minutes later, Braga scored. I was pleased I read the match and was flexible in my methods to exit when I saw the game was not going to plan. I was happy with this trade. Not for the small profit I made but the way I managed the trade.
Still monitoring the match, I opened up another trade in the second half to trade the Under goals market. Braga was winning 1-4 away from home so with five goals already I expected the second half to start slow as Braga had wrapped up the win.
That didn’t go to plan. Braga started the second half as they finished the first and scored their fifth goal with their first significant attack.
They went on to thrash Belenenses 1-7!!
Guimaraes v Benfica
In this match, I traded the under goal market and cashed out midway through the first half just moments before Benfica took the lead.
A small win.
I started the blog on 1st August last year, but I don’t trade every day due to holidays, commitments at work and my family, but today I completed 100 trading days since August.
I’ve been tracking this in a chart. It’s a shame the last couple of days ended with a negative return, but overall it's been on an upward curve.
I went to the gym for a 45-minute spinning class this morning. It was hard work, but I felt great afterwards. It helped me get in the right frame of mind for the afternoon and evening of trading. Here’s how it went.
Olympiakos v Panathinaikos
Greece Super League
Olympiakos were clear odds on favourites priced at 1.25 and haven’t lost at home in their last five games. I kept an eye on the match throughout the first half to see if there was an angle for me to enter.
At half time the score, surprising to me, was still 0-0. Looking at the stats, it seemed like it was an open match, so I was expecting a goal.
I layed the under 1.5 goal market during the second half with a plan to remove the liability should there be a goal.
It sort of went to plan. Olympiakos scored in the 74th minute, so I removed my liability but the second goal never arrived, so this trade was a scratch trade.
Gillingham v West ham
FA Cup 3rd Round
West Ham, now under the management of David Moyes, was playing away to Gillingham. I expected West Ham to win the tie, but I believed a Sunday night game, under the floodlights, might start scrappy.
I chose to back the under’s goal market, and as time progressed throughout the first half if there were no goals I'd exit for a profit.
The trade was successful when I exited for a profit midway through the first half when the score still 0-0. It stayed 0-0 at Half-time in fact.
West Ham went on to win the match and progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup
AS Roma v Torino
This game was shown live on Premier Sports. Roma has been impressive at home recently, without a loss in their last five games.
I opened a position backing Roma.
Torino scored just before half-time. I didn't panic and left my trade open to see if Roma would equalise then manage the trade and see if they push on for the win.
The score was still 0-1 in the 70th minute, so I decided to change my approach. I exited the trade for a loss but then opened a new trade Laying under 1.5 goals. The match was open, Roma was pushing for a goal but also leaving gaps, so by opening this trade all I needed was a goal from either side to cover the loss on my earlier trade.
As expected, there was a goal. Torino converted a penalty to make it 0-2. This was enough to cover my loss, so it worked out overall to be a scratch trade.
Friday’s error with the Under 2.5 goal trade in the Valladolid v Leganes match was hard to take, but by Sunday I started to get over it. It was always going to take a little time to recover from that error and stop myself from forcing the trades, simply to cover the loss.
This weekend saw me complete 100 days of trading since I started the blog, so that’s a nice milestone to achieve. Overall, as the chart shows, my football trading is on a steadily upward direction.
Let’s see how the weekend of trading went.
I started the weekend with a balance of £800.46
Balance now stands at £782.20
A negative weekend. I'll park this, forget about it and move forward.
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.