It was the last weekend of football trading before Christmas. This post will explain how it went.
Eibar v Granada
Although neither team has been in great form, I presumed the match would produce a couple of goals. I entered the "over 1.5 goals" market with an order matched at 1.55 within the first 15 minutes.
Eibar took the lead in the 21st minute. I chose rather than "cashing in" for a profit I would create more value and remove the liability, building a "risk-free" trade.
Eibar scored their second a few minutes later, resulting in a winning trade.
As I anticipated, the game produced at least two goals. Eibar comfortably won the match 3-0.
Everton v Arsenal
In hindsight, recognising that both teams appointed new coaches the players were likely to impress their onlooking coaches so the previous form might best be ignored.
At home, Everton games produce at least a goal, so I decided to back "over 1.5 goals" intending to exit after the first goal.
I decided to cash out for a loss in the second half with the score still 0-0. I opened a second trade in the "over 0.5 goals market” yet expecting a goal.
The game ended 0-0 resulting in a frustrating loss — not a great start to a Saturday of trading.
The following trades were games that I traded in play when the score was 0-0. I then locked in a profit after a goal.
Real Betis v Atletico Madrid
I entered two trades during this match. Sports traders have the flexibility to change the approach during the game, and not sit on our hands unable to do anything.
The first trade was backing "over 1.5 goals" expecting a goal or two. At half time the score was 0-0, so I decided to take a small loss and cash out.
As it was half-time, this match might not necessarily have enough time to create two goals. Also, my thinking was if I did stick with the first "over 1.5 goals" trade, if the first goal came too late, I might only get a small loss.
I still believed there would be a goal so I opened a second trade, but this time I was entering the "over 0.5 goals" market. If there were a goal, this would cover the loss from the first trade.
As I expected, the goal arrived in the 58th minute. Atletico Madrid took the lead.
Atletico Madrid went on to win the game 1-2, so there were over two goals. Oh well, I feel I traded it OK and showed that I could be flexible in my approach.
I entered the following trades expecting goals, so I backed "over 1.5 goals" intending to cash out after a goal.
I started the weekend with £764.36
Balance is now £760.34
14 Trades. 9 wins so a 64% win rate, but the losses hit me hard resulting in a negative P&L.
A losing weekend. This weekends result is following a losing mid-week of trades. I feel I'm a little lost in my trading at the moment — no real consistency.
I need to take a step back to see where I might be going wrong but also keep in mind, although I've had losses, they're not busting the bank.
I'm still on target for a profitable December, but if I'm honest, I was hoping for better returns. (sigh!)
No trading on Friday as I was occupied with family commitments. Here’s how Saturday and Sunday went.
Liverpool v Watford
Goals, goals, goals. That’s what I was expecting in this game. Just look at the recent results between these two at Anfield.
I waited until midway through the first half and then decided to open a position in the “over 0.5 FHG” market, expecting a goal before half-time. My order was matched at 1.74.
Salah scored with a curling shot in the 37th minute. To be fair just before the goal, Watford had been growing into the game and had a few chances to take the lead themselves. The goal is all I needed, though, so a winning trade.
Chelsea v Bournemouth
The score was 0-0 during the second half. I believed Chelsea would nick a win here at home, so I opened an order to lay the draw.
The goal did arrive, but surprisingly for me, it was Bournemouth who scored and as a result, I locked in a profit.
Antwerp v Eupen
Another Lay the draw in the second half. Antwerp scored in the 80th minute and won the match 1-0. Another winning trade.
Athletic Bilbao v Eibar
A frustrating Lay the Draw trade. VAR ruled out the goal in the 73rd minute. The game went on to finish 0-0 and as a result it was my first loss of the day.
Atletico Madrid v Osasuna
Another Lay the Draw trade during the second half. Morata scored after 67 minutes allowing me to remove the liability from this trade. They then scored another making it 2-0 and a winning trade.
Shall I continue to remove the liability or cash out when a goal is scored? Something to keep an eye on. All in all, a decent day of trading.
AC Milan v Sassuolo
I decided to open a position and Lay the Draw during the second half at odds of 2.50. The game fizzled out and ended in a dull 0-0, so it was a losing trade.
AZ Alkmaar v Ajax
With the game still 0-0 midway through the second half, I decided to open a Lay the Draw trade.
The goal arrived later than I expected. I was accepting it was going to be a loss, but then Alkmaar took the lead in the 90th minute and ended up winning the match 1-0. I was happy with this winning trade.
Besiktas v Malatyaspor
Turkish Super Lig
It wasn’t a game I shortlisted, but while scrolling through the list of live games on “flashscore”, I saw this match was still 0-0 in the second half. Like I’ve been doing with many trades this weekend I layed the Draw and entered the market at 2.40.
Malatyaspor took the lead near the end of the match so I could remove the liability from the trade. They then scored a penalty late on and won the match 0-2.
Lyon v Rennes
A late winner for Rennes in the 89th minute and as a result, a winning Lay the Draw trade for me.
Some late, late goals in some of the games I traded today. At one point I was looking at a negative return on Sunday, but in the end, it turned out OK.
Some late winners over the weekend. On many occasions, I was already typing in the negative returns into my Excel tracking sheet, only to hear the flashscore audible notify me of a goal. Some you win, some you don't.
A question I'm asking myself is "Can Lay the Draw still be profitable?"
I started the weekend with £749.10
Total P&L +£20.65
The balance is now £769.75
The decorations are up, the kids are excited about Father Christmas arriving, and I’m excited to see where my football trading takes me over the festive season.
Like with previous months, I’ve set myself a target to make a return of 10-15% profit on the current balance.
My stakes have been increased, so they’re in line with the current balance. I am aiming to use between 2-2.5% stakes/liability. It looks better when I win a trade but using slightly larger stakes means my losses are higher. I need to overcome that though as it's a mindset thing.
Here’s how the first week of December has gone.
First of all, I continue to use Bet Angel to set up some daily automated trades. These sorts of trades are ideal when I’m unable to sit in front of my laptop. Here’s how my first half goals trades went this week.
Each selection is based on my pre-match criteria and placed into the bot at the start of each day.
The family were busy with other activities, so I had time to concentrate on my trading.
I’ve been paper trading the “under 1.5 goals” market alongside my live trades but seeing as it’s the first day of a new month so I decide to include it with my live trading methods.
I traded the market using smaller stakes until I’ve gained more experience using a method I'm using for this market. Here’s how it went.
FC Porto v Pacos Ferreira
Looking at the recent form and the pre-match statistics, I marked this game on my short-list as a match to trade during the first half. I was expecting at least a goal.
Call it lucky because I entered the market in the 16th minute when I felt the game was starting to liven up. The goal arrived in the 18th minute when Ndiaye scored for Porto making it 1-0.
It was a nice win, especially as I was in the market for only two minutes.
Crystal Palace v Bournemouth
A first-half trade that didn’t work out. I was expecting an early goal, but it didn’t help when Sakho was sent off in the 19th minute. I had to take this one on the chin and exit with a loss.
Lyon v Lille
French Ligue 1
This match was another game where I expected a goal in the first half. Like with the Crystal Palace game, it didn’t happen, and so I had to exit for a loss.
I opened a new position in the market later on though. While it was still 0-0, I always believed the game wouldn't end goalless, so I decided to oppose the current score midway through the second half and wait for a goal.
It worked out to be a successful trade. Ikone scored for Lille in the 68th minute.
Leicester City v Watford
This was a game where I expected goals. Leicester have been on fire this season under Brendon Rodgers.
I entered a trade in the first half, with the idea of cashing out after the first goal. If it were to stay 0-0 near the end of the match, I would exit for a loss.
The first goal was scored later than I expected. Vardy scored from the penalty spot in the 55th minute. This goal was good enough for me to make a small return.
Inter v AS Roma
I was watching this game on TV in the lounge. I believed a goal was going to arrive soon so with the score at 0-0 I placed a traditional Lay The Draw trade.
It never happened, and the match finished 0-0 — not a great start to the weekend. I also had a loss in my automated trades as well. Oh well!
I was out with the family at a Christmas Fair, and then, later on, I met up with some friends to watch the Manchester Derby. I kept an eye on this Serie A match because at 1-1 I felt there was another goal in this game. I decided to Lay the Draw.
I got fortunate with this one. I didn’t see the goal arrive in the second half and missed the opportunity to cash out of the trade for a profit. Instead, the trade ran until the end, in a match Lazio won. This error (and lack of concentration?) increased my earnings, but if it had finished 2-2, I would have been looking at a loss. I got lucky with this one.
Four first-half automated trades won, so this helped me return a decent profit on Saturday.
I started the week with a balance of £679.95
Balance is now £710.54
November ends. Christmas is nearly here. My kids are excited now the decorations are up.
I'll be honest; I love this time of the year. Time off work to spend with the family, eating too many mince pies, drinking wine, playing board games and likely unwrapping new socks and seven deodorant and shower gel gift boxes from the family (who didn't know what else to get you!)
With regards to the trading, I wasn't sure what to expect before calculating the total P&L. I expected my number of trades to be lower due to the time I took out to trade for Children In Need and the International football schedule. I would be happy if I made 10-15% return on balance though.
Before I worked it all out, I had a couple of days left to trade before December arrived. This is how Friday and Saturday went.
I won't add Sunday's results, as this post is to document how my trading concluded in November.
Antwerp v Mechelen
Belgium Pro League
I profiled this match, expecting the game to start lively and either side to score a goal before half-time. Based on this, I entered the market to Lay "Under 1.5 first-half goals". If there were goals within a certain amount of time, then I'd look to secure some profits.
It didn't work out. I thought I was going to earn a profit at the end of the first half, but Antwerp missed a penalty in the 45th minute. A losing trade.
I kept this match open on the monitor and still believed there was going to be a goal in the game. The score was still 0-0 midway through the second half, so I opposed the current score.
It worked out well. As expected, there was a goal in the 75th minute for the home side. Antwerp went on to win the game 1-0.
Marseille v Brest
French Ligue 1
I usually prefer trading the goals markets, but for this one, I decided to back Marseille “in play”.
At half-time, the score was still 0-0, but Marseille had 64% of possession and 13 attempts at goal versus Brest who had just the one attempt all half.
I entered the market because I believed Marseille would at least take the lead, if not win the game.
Marseille took the lead after 56 minutes, so I was able to secure in a profit.
Schalke v Union Berlin
It was midway through the second half, and both teams were having plenty of attempts on goal. The score was 1-1 and appeared to me; it wouldn’t end as a draw. A goal was coming.
I decided to oppose the current score, expecting a winner from either side. I managed to get a lay price below evens, so my risk to reward was positive.
The goal arrived late in the match. Serdar scored for Schalke in the 86th minute, and as a result, I locked in a healthy profit, as will be shown in summary below.
Automate: First Half goals market
On Friday evening and Saturday morning, I continued testing some Bet Angel bots. As mentioned previously, it’s something I used to do but didn’t give it much of a chance.
After speaking with fellow traders over the past few days and weeks, I want to study this style of trading again. I like the idea to automate my trading, if and when possible, to remove the emotions from my decisions.
I don’t plan to use it all the time, and even if I wanted to, I don’t think I can automate all of my trading methods, due to various situations in a match.
Today I set up the bot to trade the first half goals market, in matches, I was expecting a slow start and ideally no goals. If there were an early goal, I’d either break even or maybe return a small win (or loss).
I spent the morning selecting the games and put them into Bet Angel. I armed the bot and let it run. Here’s how they went.
I was satisfied with the results when I reviewed them later in the day. Three trades and three wins. A small sample size, but it’s a good start.
Moreirense v Aves
A game I added to my shortlist to see if I could enter the market in-play. Moreirense were at home and favourites with the bookies and market makers. I was expected to get a result from this game.
Aves took an early lead in the 5th minute. As soon as the market settled, I layed Aves, as I was certain Moreirense would get back into this game.
In the 13th minute, Aves had a man sent off. As a result, the odds moved in my favour before a goal was scored. I had to think fast here. I could stay in the trade until a goal is scored, or manage the open position to lock in some profits. I was conscious of the fact the ten men of Aves might put on a defensive display and frustrate the home side.
I decided to manage the position so I'd get something out of the trade.
Moreirense scored two goals in the first half to lead 2-1 at half-time. They went on to win the game 3-2 — a winning trade.
Piast Gliwice v Slask Wroclaw
Like with the Moreirense v Aves trade, I paused to see how I could trade this match in play.
When Slask took the lead in the second half, I checked the stats to see if there was any indication Piast, being at home, had a chance to get back into the game. In the first half, they had 54% possession, ten attempts on goal compared to Slask’s 2 efforts. I felt the home side could get back into this game, so I layed Slask.
Well, it wasn’t to be. Slask went and scored a second goal in the 76th minute. I decided to exit for a loss and move on.
In the end, Slask scored another goal and won the game 0-3 away from home.
Mallorca v Real Betis
Spanish La Liga
I had this game marked as a home win. When I saw Betis take the lead in the 7th minute, I felt there was plenty of time for Mallorca to get back into it. I opposed Betis for a price I felt offered value.
When Betis took a 0-2 lead after 33 minutes, I had to bite my lip, take the pain, and exit for a loss. I stuck to my plan, but inside I was tempted to keep it running longer as there was still 60 minutes left to play.
In the end, Mallorca scored but lost 1-2 at home. Another loss for me today.
Nice v Angers
French Ligue 1
Nice were favourites playing at home. They've lost one game at home in the league in their last five matches. Angers, on the other hand, have been poor away from home recently. Without a win away from home in their previous five games, one of those was in the cup.
When I noticed Angers take the lead after 22 minutes, I opposed them, expecting Nice to get back into the game.
I was accurate to do so. Nice made it 1-1 in the 39th minute. I decided to secure some profits and was comfortable knowing I won't lose anything in this trade.
As I was suspecting, and why I entered the trade as I did, Nice won the match 3-1.
Last week I posted a negative return. I'm pleased I had more favourable returns to finish November.
Here's the P&L for Friday and Saturday's trades.
Starting balance from the mid-week trading was £651.
Friday & Saturday P&L +£28.95
The balance at the end of November is £679.95 (+161% ROI since 1-August-19)
I'm pleased with how Friday and Saturday went. It's nice to see a green P&L, unlike a red one I had mid-week.
What were my returns in November? Have I made a 10-15% return this month? I've put the details over in the monthly report section.
Now let's see how December works out and if I can finish the year (and decade!) in style?
It’s great listening and talking with other sports traders to understand how they trade, their mindset and what they look for when entering and exiting trades. Trading can be a lonely and isolating place, so I like to interact with like-minded people.
If you’re sports trading, I highly recommend following a few traders on social media (but do your due diligence) and start interacting with them. It’s great when you talk to genuine traders and not those who flood social media with profitable green screenshots and try to convince you that they never have a losing day.
Speaking of social media, I’m sure those who read this post are aware of my Twitter account. If you’re not familiar, its @SportsTraydor. Come and say hi!
The International football crept into the midweek, so once again I was limited on how many trades I entered and a reason I decided to write the one post this week to cover both the mid-week and weekend trades.
Here’s how it went.
Sweden v Faroe Islands
Euro 2020 Qualifier
My first mid-week trade. Sweden was clear favourites priced at 1.11 with the bookies. The Faroe Islands, not surprisingly were outsiders priced at 34’s. After analysing the match, I saw that Sweden has played four of the last five home matches that produced first-half goals.
I decided to enter the market midway through the first half and plan to exit for a profit if a goal arrives before half-time.
Sweden scored in the 29th minute to lead 1-0, so my only trade of the day was a win.
Antwerp v Gent
Two evenly matched teams in this game and looking at the form it appears there were goals in the first half in all of Antwerp’s last five home games. This was a good sign for me to enter the market earlier rather than later, but still looking for value.
I placed an order into the goals market, not taking the current asking price, looking for at least one goal to be scored before half-time.
Not long after my order was matched a goal was scored in the 21st minute. Yaremchuk scoring for Gent to take the lead 0-1. A winning trade. The score at half time ended 2-1, so the analysis and my thoughts on early goals in this game appeared to be correct.
Mid-week trading summary
Due to International football earlier in the week, I placed just two trades during the week. Both trades entered in the goals markets and exiting when a goal was scored.
I’m happy with how my pre-match analysis and match selection criteria have been going recently. I’m not naive and understand it’s a small sample size, so I need to take care of my methods entering the markets in the first half, compared to the usual second-half trading.
Shangdong Luneng v Chongquing Lifan
Chinese Super League
My first trade of the weekend. Shangdong were home favourites, priced around 1.22, and the away side priced at 11.00. Shandong sits in 4th and Chongquing in 7th.
With a coffee in my hand, looking at the fixtures and browsing the form, I saw that in 70% of Shandong’s games at home produced a goal or more in the first half. Looking at the more recent form, it’s four from 5, so 80%. Based on the facts, I expected an early goal and didn’t wish to wait until the second half to get involved.
I placed an order into the “overs” market before kick-off. The order was match around the 20th minute. If there was a goal, I’d come away with a winning trade.
The goal arrived after 34 minutes. Pelle getting on the score sheet for the home side. Before the goal arrived, the game was a bit of a stalemate with no chances on goal so I was pleased to see the goal.
I was contemplating on whether I should exit the trade due to the limited number of chances from either side. I’m glad I didn’t and stuck with my plan as this resulted in a winning trade.
Puszcza v Odra Opole
Polish Division 1
Odra Opole finds themselves bottom of the Polish 1st division travelling to Puscza who are not doing much better but in mid-table.
As I have been doing recently, I placed an order in the “overs” market, which was matched midway through the first half.
The goal arrived in the 25th minute, and as a result, it was a winning trade. I’m going to increase my stake to 2% of the current bank now.
Podbeskidzie v Chojnizcanka
Polish Division 1
Podbeskidzie in 3rd position at home against Chojnizcanka who are in an early relegation fight in 17th.
I placed an order expecting goals. The order was matched just after the 20-minute mark.
My first 0-0 at half time for some time and a losing trade. It just so happened to be when I increased my stakes to 2% of the bank. Typical.
Nordsjaelland v Randers
There have been goals before half time in 87% of Nordsjaelland’s home games and 75% in Randers away games, so I felt confident there would be an early goal
I placed an order, expecting goals, which was matched around the 25th minute.
It wasn’t to be and another loss. Typical that I have two back to back losses after I’ve increased my stakes to 2%.
Dordrecht v Telsar
Looking at the stats, 80% of the time there’s a goal or more in the first half when Dordrecht are playing at home. Compare that to 53% of games with a first half goal when Telsar plays way.
I decided to place an order, expecting at least a goal, which was matched around the 20th minute.
A goal arrived in the 25th min, so this worked out to be a winning trade. There was two more goals before half time, so three in total, but only one goal was enough for me.
Lech v Piast
After analysing the stats, I saw that in 80% of the time there’s a goal or more in the first half when Lech play at home. When Piast play away, 53% of the time there's a goal in the first half.
With the stats expecting a goal earlier rather than later, I decided to place an order in the "overs" market.
An order was placed and matched around 25 mins into the first half.
Well, I had to wait until the very end when Lech was awarded a penalty in the 45th minute. The half time whistle was blown by the referee as soon as the penalty was converted and a winning trade for me.
Pescara v Cremonese
Italian Serie B
4th plays 17th in this Serie B fixture. The pre-match stats expected a goal, so it was a game I decided to get involved in
I placed my order which was matched earlier than usual, around the 18th minute. The pre-match “overs” odds were high which I guess means the market wasn't expecting an early goal. I was now in the trade and looking for a goal.
Well, the pre-match odds were higher than usual for goals, and they were right. This game was 0-0 at half time, so I exited for a loss.
Five trades in total during a hectic Saturday. I had family commitments throughout the day, but I managed to find some time to put a few trades on between dropping the kids off at dance, pick up some items in town and watch a Christmas carol performance (yes, I know in November!)
Pordenone v Perugia
Italian Series B
First half trade, entering the goals market midway through the first half.
It never worked out though as there were no goals scored in the first half, so I exited with a loss.
Pordenone went on to win 3-0, so I was right in expecting goals, but they were scored too late for me.
Atalanta v Juventus
Italian Serie A
I was expecting Juventus to be clear favourites for this game but they were priced at 2.50 with some bookies. I looked at the recent form and expected goals.
I entered the goals market in the first half, but at half time it was still 0-0, so I exited the trade for my second loss of the day. Juventus won the game 1-3 away from home.
Weder Bremen v Schalke
After profiling this game, I thought there would be goals. I didn’t feel comfortable waiting until half time to get involved, so I entered during the first half.
I was correct to do so as a goal arrived in the 43rd minute, and as a result, I won my first trade of the day.
Brighton v Leicester City
The score was 0-0 at Half time. I decided to wait and see how the second half started before entering the goals market.
I placed an order, that was matched around the 55th minute.
The goal arrived in the 64th minute, Leicester taking the lead on a wet and miserable afternoon, which was enough for me to make a profit from this trade.
Two win, two losses so far today.
Swansea v Millwall
Like with the Brighton v Leicester City game, I entered the goal market in the second half. The score was 0-0, but I felt a goal was coming. I placed an order that was match around 60 minutes into the game.
I didn’t have to wait long, as Millwall scored in the 65th minute, and so I walked away with a profit from this trade.
I placed five trades on Saturday. Three wins and two losses.
On Sunday, I placed another five trades. This is how it went.
Copenhagen v Hobro
Denmark Super liga.
Copenhagen were clear favourites priced at 1.25 and Hobro playing away were at 11.00. I wasn’t expecting this to be goalless in the first half, so I entered a trade in the “overs” market during the first half.
The goal arrived in the 31st minute, but surprisingly it was the outsiders who scored after they won a penalty that they missed, but then put the ball past the goalkeeper after he made the penalty save.
I entered a second trade in this match. I felt that Copenhagen would pull this back to make it 1-1. I, therefore, opposed Hobro.
Hobro were still winning as the match entered the last ten minutes. Suddenly Copenhagen scores two goals in two minutes and go on to win the game 2-1. A second winning trade for me between these two sides.
Asteras v Volos
Greece Super League
A losing trade. I expected goals, but the first half finished 0-0, and so I exited for a loss. Move onto the next trade. It happens.
CSKA Moscow v Sovetov
Russian Premier League
I expected goals early on in this match. It didn’t go my way, as the score was 0-0 at half time. I exited the trade for a loss.
I looked at the stats and I felt there was going to be a goal, so I placed an order during the second half which was matched around the 56th minute.
It turned out to be the right decision as the goal arrived in the 75th minute, and as a result, it was a winning trade.
Quite a few trades recorded this weekend. Overall, you’ll see below its was a profitable week.
It’s strange as it didn’t feel like a profitable week on a daily basis, so it shows that I need to look at my results weekly or even over a month to get an accurate idea of how my trading is going. There’s a lot of variance in football trading.
This coming week will be the last trading week of November. I’m interested to see how it will turn out and what my monthly P&L will look.
I’m not expecting too much as I missed a week of trading due to the Children in Need mini-challenge, which was well worth it. There’s also been International football which reduces the number of trades being placed. We’ll see, though.
The balance on Monday was £613.28
Balance is now £654.27 (+151% ROI since 1-August-19)
During an International football week, I’m limited on how often I trade the markets using my trading methods. There’s no form to analyse, and it’s difficult to know how motivated the players or coaches will be.
Instead of sitting on my hands, I use these times as a chance to review my trading plan, read articles and watch video’s produced by other sports and financial traders. Best of all is that I spend more time with my family and friends, especially on a Saturday afternoon.
Last week I traded the markets to generate a profit for Children In Need. I used this opportunity to be more aggressive in my match selections due to the time limit I set myself.
One of the methods was to trade during the first half, which worked out well, but at the same time, I’m conscious it was a small sample size. It’s a style of football trading I want to improve, as mentioned in my final post in October.
To help compare my first-half trade results in contrast to my second half trades I’ve spent this week updating my Excel tracking sheet to include additional data. I will then filter this data for further analysis.
I’ll be entering my first half trades using a mixture of form and pre-match analysis although I won’t necessarily open a trade from kick-off.
Instead, I’ll likely wait for the match to begin, so the markets odds increase or decrease in my favour for more value. I might miss out on some potential wins if there’s an early goal, but it’s the same risk with my current second-half trading methods as I prefer to see how the second half starts before entering the markets.
This weekend I entered the Betfair markets just three times, all within the first half. Quality over quantity right? This is how it went.
Croatia v Slovakia
Euro 2020 Qualifier
The home side Croatia was priced at 1.44 by the bookmakers. The visitors, Slovakia were priced at 8.00.
I expected goals between these two teams but I had to decide whether to enter the market in the first half or wait until half time.
Croatia has been involved in matches that produced a goal in the first half in 4 of their last 5 home games. The one game that was 0-0 at half time was against Spain back in 2018.
I decided to enter the market during the first half and exit if there was a goal.
There was a goal in the first half but surprising to me it was scored by the away side Slovakia. Bozenik scored in the 32nd minute against the run of play. I was happy with the result and the winning trade.
Croatia won the game 3-1 with Slovakia having a player sent off in the second half.
Germany v Belarus
Euro 2020 Qualifier
If I’m honest, I didn’t look at the pre-match form and analyse the stats before the game. I was sure this match would produce goals and in particular at least one in the first half.
The goal markets were priced very low as 99.9% of traders were expecting a goal rush. I waited until later in the first half for the price to increase and enter the goals market. I wasn’t sure if I would get into the market as Germany were likely to score sooner rather than later.
I was surprised the score stayed 0-0 for so long, but I’m glad it did as this allowed me to get in the market at a better price.
Germany had 71% of possession and 23 goal attempts when they finally took the lead in the 41st minute. This late first-half goal was enough for me to win my second trade of the day.
Kosovo v England
Euro 2020 Qualifier
Harry Kane is on fire (on the International stage, not domestically) and the England team scored seven goals during the week. The game between these two nations in Southampton (which I attended in person) produced plenty of goals, and I was confident this game would be no different.
My only concern was England have now qualified for the Euro 2020 finals and what would their mindset be? The starting line up included Kane and Sterling which was the deciding factor for me to enter the markets.
I was expecting goals but concerned I might miss out on this trade if I waited until the second half.
I entered the trade around 25 minutes into the game when the goals market was offering value. I was aware that if there was an early goal, it was one of those I’d have to take on the chin and miss.
About seven minutes after entering the trade, I raised a fist in celebration as Harry Winks scores his first goal for England, and I win the trade.
England went on to win the game 4-0 and now wait to see who they face in the tournament next year.
On the subject of the Euro 2020 tournament. Who’s in favour of the games being played across multiple cities rather than one nation hosting the finals? I’d rather see one nation host it.
Three wins from three trades this weekend and all of the profits came from entering the market in the first half. It’s a small sample size, but if goals are likely to come earlier in the match, I’m going to see if there’s an opportunity for me to enter a trade in the first half.
I’ll still wait for the price to offer value which might see me miss out on some potential winning trades, but I believe, for the long term, it’s essential to wait until the price is right. (Hold on, who remembers the game show “The Price is Right”?)
The starting balance before the weekend was £589.76.
Total weekend P&L +£23.52
The balance now stands at £613.28. That’s +135% ROI since the 1st August 2019.
I’m looking forward to trade the domestic leagues again.
I had a somewhat up and down weekend of trading. Most of my pre-match selections seemed to have goals, but I couldn't find an angle to get involved and missed out on some potential wins.
What made it worse for me is that I was trading and trying to make as much profit as I could for Children In Need.
Because of this deadline I set myself, I started to enter some trades earlier than I usually do, in the first half, because I only had a week for this mini-challenge. I couldn't be as conservative as my regular trading style.
mentioned in a recent post in October that I wouldn't enter trades in the first half before I paper trade them. Well, based on some of the results this week, I need to consider it.
Here's how it went.
Vitesse v Groningen
Vitesse was losing at home. I looked at the stats and expected them to at least pull it back before the final whistle.
They didn't convert their chances, and no more goals arrived — a losing trade.
St. Golloise v Westerlo
Home favourites were losing in the second half. Their home form has been impressive, so I decided to Lay Westerlo. I don't usually lay a particular team, but I felt St. Golloise would get back into this.
I decided to cash out at my pre-defined stop later in the game for a break-even trade, or small loss by the time my orders were met.
Friday wasn't the best of days. One loss and one (kind of) break-even trade.
Erzurum v Akhisarspor
Turkey 1. Lig
Erzurum has been flying at home, so when I saw they were level 0-0 in the second half, I decided to oppose the current score.
Frustratingly for me, there were no goals, and the match ended 0-0.
Wisla Plock v Cracovia Krakow
Profiling this game, I expected goals. Wisla hasn't maintained a clean sheet in the last three games and has been involved in matches producing over 2.5 goals five times in the previous 7.
Cracovia Krakow has won their last three games. So I decided to oppose the current 0-0 scoreline in the second half.
Like with the trade earlier, it finished 0-0. Arrgh! So many losing trades!
Sivasspor v Konyaspor
Turkey 1. Lig
Sivasspor have been playing well at home, and after looking at the stats midway through the second half, I decided to oppose the current 0-0 score, expecting a goal.
At last, a winning trade. The goals came in the 80th and 89th minute with Sivasspor winning 2-0.
Valencia v Granada
With the game still 0-0 in the second half, I waited for the price to decrease before opposing the scoreline.
It worked out to be a winning trade with Valencia scoring in the 74th minute and then a late goal in the 97th minute, but I only needed one goal to win this trade.
Ballymena v Carrick Rangers
Late in the second half home, pre-match favourites were losing 1-2 at home. I believed Ballymena was going to get back into this game and level the score.
Well, it never happened. The score stayed at 1-2, so I lost this trade.
Charleroi v Eupen
With the score 0-0 and the stats seemed to expect a goal was on its way, I opposed the current score in the second half.
I had to wait until the 83rd minute to win this trade. Charleroi went on to win 1-0.
Monaco v Dijon
This was one of the first trades of the week entering the market in the first half. I was expecting goals in the match, so I decided to enter in the first half and win if the first goal arrived in the first half.
It worked out with Monaco scoring in the 42nd minute. Nice first-half trade and due to this, I stuck with it for some future trades.
Sittard v Den Haag
Like with the Monaco game, while profiling this match, I expected goals. Rather than wait until the second half, as I usually do, I entered in the first half looking for an early goal.
This was another successful first-half trade. Sittard scored in the 40th min.
Heracles v VVV Venlo
I am sticking with the plan to enter the trade earlier than usual. This trade also worked out well with a goal in the 22nd minute.
I expected goals in this match, and I profiled it well as Heracles went on to win 6-1. Glad I didn't wait until the second half to get involved, or I may not have found a way to trade this match.
Napoli v Genoa
My first loss of the weekend while using the strategy to enter a trade early. I expected goals in the game, but it was 0-0 at half time, so I cashed out for a loss.
Lille v Metz
With the score 0-0 in the second half, I decided to use my second half methods and oppose the current score.
The stats looked in my favour, but the game somehow finished 0-0, so it was a losing trade.
Napoli v Genoa
It's not a typo; I did get involved in this match again. I watched the game and thought a goal was going to arrive in the second half. I went back to my second half method and opposed the 0-0 score.
Hmm, well that didn't work, and it ended 0-0.
At 11 am on Remembrance Sunday, I spent two-minutes in silence to remember the brave men and women who sacrificed a great deal so I can live today, doing what I do, including such things as sports trading.
The last day of trading to make a profit for Children In Need.
Cagliari v Fiorentina
Back to the method to get into a trade early. The available matches to trade for the final day of my mini-challenge were running out so I couldn't wait to see if I could enter in the second half. I expected an early goal.
The goal arrived after 17 minutes, winning my trade. Cagliari went on to win 5-2.
Lazio v Lecce
This would be my final trade of the day and of the weekend. I entered earlier in the game, expecting a goal and it worked out. Lazio scored in the 30th minute and went on to win the game 4-2.
The mini-challenge has come to an end. I totalled up my P&L for the week. The good news is I made a profit. The bad news is it wasn't anything significant.
I started the challenge with £200 on Monday.
The final amount was £228.10.
I made a profit of +£28.10, from the midweek trading and this weekend which is a return of 14% on the starting balance.
I wish I had won a lot more. I would have liked to get 50%+, so £100+ in a week, although that might seem too unrealistic or aggressive. Maybe in hindsight with only one week of trading to make a profit, I should have increased my stakes so the wins would have been more significant.
I'm going to be setting myself some more challenges in 2020 to try and raise a lot more.
I'll be withdrawing the £228.10 from my Betfair account, so I only have my main balance in there. I'll be sending the £28.10 to "Children in Need" this week - and I'll be donating some more myself.
I'm going back to trading my regular account this week. Unfortunately, it's an International week of football fixtures, so I'm not expecting too much activity.
Yes!! Well done England who are on their way to the Rugby World Cup final. What a game against a tough New Zealand side. I have to admit I cheered somewhat loudly when we scored the first try. I'm not sure the neighbours appreciated it unless they're rugby fans. I'm looking forward to next Saturdays final against South Africa.
First of all, I didn't trade the Southampton v Leicester City game on Friday night. I was contemplating the over 8.5 goals from the start, but I decided against it. Okay, okay, of course, I wasn't thinking of the over 8.5 goals market. What a crazy result, though!
Esberg v Midtjylland
Midtjylland were odds on before the game. When I saw they were level at half time, but with 70% possession, I decided the enter the market, laying the Under 1.5 goals.
The first goal arrived in the 56th minute for the home side, so rather than cashing out I removed some of the liability as I believed there would be another goal.
It was the correct call to make as the second goal was scored in the 67th minute. Midtyjllan levelled making it 1-1. A winning trade to start the weekend.
The final score was 1-2, with Midtjylland getting all three points.
Nancy v Lens
French Ligue 1
I went against my pre-match selection criteria on this one, so maybe some might say I deserved to lose the trade. I was studying the in-play stats and thought there would be a goal.
I layed the goal market in the second half. The odds were below evens, so my liability was lower than the potential profits, so when the game finished 0-0, although it was a losing trade, it wasn't a significant loss.
I "must" stick to my match selection!!
Jeonbuk v Seoul
Korean K League
While the rugby was on, I remembered I was to put a trade on this Korean league match. It was just silly as I was engrossed in the rugby match on TV, but I didn't want to miss out on a potential trade I had shortlisted. What made it worse is that I over staked the trade.
With the score 0-1 to Seoul at half time, I felt Jeonbuk, being odds on pre-match favourites, priced at 1.55, would get back into the game. I opposed the score but made sure I set myself a stop loss if no goal arrived.
As it happened, no goal arrived in time, and the price hit my stop, so I exited the trade for a significant loss - due to the increased stake. Typically a goal was scored minutes later, so this was a kick in the teeth - but hey, at least England won in the rugby.
After watching the rugby, losing my first trade of the day and taking the dogs for a walk across the fields, I was back at trading HQ - aka my laptop and monitor, ready for some more trading.
Sundsvall v Heisingborg
Sundsvall was priced at 1.50 before the game. After studying the stats, following my selection criteria, I anticipated goals in the game. At half time the score was still 0-0. I decided to enter the market, still expecting goals, so I layed Under 1.5 goals at odds of 1.85.
The first goal didn't arrive until the 82nd minute. I wasn't expecting another late goal, so I cashed out for a small loss.
Well typically, there was a second goal in the 85th minute and then a third in the 86th minute, with the game ending Sundsvall 1-2 Helsingborg. Oh well!
Lecce v Juventus
I marked this as a game that Juventus should win easily. When I saw that it was 1-1 in the second half, I was expecting another goal. I opposed the current score and entered the market.
I was watching the game on the live stream, willing the players from both sides to get another goal, but it wasn't to be. The match finished a surprising 1-1, and so this was my second losing trade of the day. For the Lecce players and fans, this point felt like a win.
Schalke v Dortmund
There isn't much to say with this. I was reading some comments online about this game, and many people and fellow traders were expecting goals in this game, and I felt the same (or maybe even persuaded or feared missing out?).
I opposed the current 0-0 score expecting goals. With the time advancing, it was looking like it would end 0-0 and that is what happened. This resulted in a losing trade.
Preston v Blackburn
I decided to dutch the correct score when I saw Blackburn take the lead 0-2 in this game. Preston's form at home has been excellent, so I expected them to score and get back into the game.
When Preston pulled it back to make it 1-2 in the 53rd minute, I waited a bit longer before removing the liability. It meant I reduced my potential profits, but becomes a risk-free trade.
I'm glad I did as Preston pulled it back to 3-2, scoring in the 65th and then taking the lead in the 82nd minute, which wasn't a score I selected in my dutch trade. This was a winning trade to help make up from the two earlier losses today.
Lille v Bordeaux
French Ligue 1
Lille was winning 1-0 but after analysing the stats, it appears there could be more goals. I entered the market opposing the current score, expecting a goal or more.
Lille made it 2-0 in the 62nd minute. I cashed out for a win. Lille went on to win 3-0.
Piast v Korona
With the away team named Korona, it just made me feel thirsty.
So like with the Lille game, I felt there were more goals in the game. Korona's away form hasn't been great, and they find themselves at the wrong end of the league table.
The score was 0-0 at half time, so I entered the market, expecting more goals
When the goal arrived early in the second half, I decided to remove the liability and create a risk-free trade. There were no further goals, so it was a scratch trade - or a minimal return.
Waragem v Oostende
Belgium Jupiler League
Late in the second half, I opposed the current score, laying under 1.5 goals.
The first goal came in the 80th min so I removed the liability to create a risk-free trade. The second goal arrived in the 87th minute, so this turned out to be a winning trade.
Montpellier v Angers
French Ligue 1
The in-play stats suggested there was to be at least a goal in this game. The issue with this is I didn't check my pre-match trading rules to make sure it was the right trade to enter.
In the end there were no further goals and the game finished 0-0. This was annoying as I didn't follow my rules.
When will I learn?
Overall a negative day and I felt worn out from it all. I initially thought I had an okay day, but then I recalled when typing up my notes, the silly trade from the morning that put a significant dent in the returns. Over staking and being occupied is never a good thing. I'll learn from it, though!
Western Utd v Melbourne City
Melbourne City was winning 0-1 at half time. I looked at the stats and felt the home side were not being dominated and Western United, playing at home, could get back into this, so I layed Melbourne priced at 1.45.
Sitting down to watch the second half, Western United hit the post early in the second half. Ooh! So close! Then moments later, they were awarded a penalty that they converted to make it 1-1. I gave it a minute for the markets to settle and then cashed out for a profit. A winning trade to start the day.
Wales v South Africa
Rugby World Cup.
I know, what's this? A rugby trade? Well, this is SportsTraydor, not football traydor. I concentrate on football, but when I see an opportunity in other sports, I'll enter the market.
South Africa had a small lead during the first half. I thought their price was too low and I layed them priced at 1.32. In the second half, the score was level at 16-16. I wasn't sure which way the match was going to finish, so I cashed out for a profit.
South Africa went on to win the match and play England in next weeks Rugby World Cup final. (Come on England!)
My following trades on Sunday were entered while I was away from my trading desk so I'll summarise them.
CD Santurtzi v Real Sociedad III. The stats showed there was likely to be goals in the game so I entered the market when it was still 0-0.
This trade worked out as the match finished 1-1 and was a winning trade.
KC Krasnodor (Res) v FK Orenburg (Res). Some obscure youth game in Russia but the criteria was in line with my trading plan. The liquidity wasn't an issue as I am not entering with significant stakes. The score was 0-1, and I expected the home team, who was pressing for a goal, to draw level. It never happened and was a losing trade. The home team missed a penalty in the 65th minute, so that was a tad annoying!
FK Makedonija v Shkendija. This was another game that met my criteria.
Hey, you can see I'm opening up to the global side of the game, and not just the significant European leagues! I know when I increase my stakes, this won't be possible.
This match ended up being a losing trade. According to the stats, I thought there would be more goals in the second half, but there wasn't, and the game ended 0-0.
KFUM Oslo v Kongsvinger. Midway through the second half the score was still 0-1. I was confident Oslo, the home team, would get back into this game so I entered the market. It wasn't to be, and they ended up losing 0-1 at home — a losing trade.
Lyngby v AC Horsens. A game in the Danish Super Liga. Lyngby was losing 0-1 at home. I decided to lay Horsens priced at 2.01, expecting Lyngby to get a goal back, and maybe a winner. They did score! Rather than hope or wish for another goal, I decided at the time to cash out for a profit.
The final trade of the weekend was Lokomotiv v Spartak Moscow. Spartak was winning 0-1 and priced at 1.55. I thought this was offering some value as I expected Lokomotiv to draw level. Well, it didn't go to plan, and in the end, Spartak won the game, and so it was a losing trade.
Overall Sunday ended up being a slightly profitable day with four wins and four losses.
I'll have to look back but I believe this is one of the most unsatisfactory weekends of trading since I started the blog. I'm not naive and recognise there's going to be times like this. I will stick with it and look at the longer-term outcome. The bank is in profit and still intact. Nobody said this was going to be easy, right?
I started the weekend off with £595.92
Weekend P&L -£16.60
Balance is now £579.32 (123% ROI since 1-August-19)
I’ve been chatting to some fellow traders in the past week or two and some have suggested using a points system rather than the £ amount. It might be more relevant to others if I use +/- points, so it’s something I’m considering. I'd like to hear your comments on this?
As I have said from the beginning, the purpose of my blog is for me to look back on for my own reasons, but if in addition to this it helps, or is enjoyable for others, then that's good to know.
With the little amount of mid-week trading, I've combined my sports trading results for the full week into one post.
This week marked my 100th trade since I started the SportsTraydor blog. Where has that time gone? The 100th trade was between Leicester City and Burnley on Saturday afternoon.
I know for sure that sports trading isn't a "get rich quick!" scheme. Some may win big on the odd occasion and get lucky, but for me and my style, I'm looking for a slow but a long term and consistent return. Some may call this boring!
If I can return a consistent 15% ROI on my bank, month on month, over a year, I would be thrilled. Imagine that compounded! When I used to trade the financial markets (in my spare time), I would have dreamed of 15% returns, month on month — still, some way to go on this journey to see how my returns will look in the long term.
I'm regularly looking for ways to find comparisons between the financial markets and the sports trading exchanges, especially when it comes to risk vs reward. Unlike the financial markets, sports trading usually has to deal with time decay which adds a challenge when it comes to finding my entry and exit points.
While looking back at my trading records, I'm noticing that if I was to enter a little later in the second half of the football matches, I might obtain more value. On the flip side to that, there's time's I'll miss out on some winning trades, depending on the scenario, and feel like I've left money on the table. A mindset matter to overcome, but I'm still working on it. At the same time, don't want to disrupt what I've returned since August.
So how did my trading go this week?
France v Turkey
The score was still 0-0 late into the second half of this Euro 2020 qualifier. After reviewing the stats, I calculated how much I was willing to risk and then opposed the current score.
Giroud scored for France in the 76th minute. As a result of this, I started the week off with a winning trade. Turkey went on to score in the 82nd minute with the game ending 1-1.
No further mid-week trades.
Clermont v Rodez
French Ligue 2
At half-time, the score was level at 0-0. Looking at the in-play details and the pre-match stat that Rodez has not had a clean sheet in their last nine games, was encouraging so I entered a trade expecting a goal.
Rodez, the underdog, to my surprise, took the lead in the 77th minute. A winning trade to start the weekend.
Tranmere v Southend
English League 1
A game I profiled earlier in the day and marked it as one to look at in the second half.
At half time, odds-on favourites Tranmere were losing 0-1 at home. Looking at Southend's form, with a lot of losses away from home and struggling to keep clean sheets, I felt Tranmere would get back into the game. Not only this but another stat I read is that Tranmere has been involved in a lot of games that produce more than 2.5 goals. I decided to enter a trade midway through the second half and oppose the current score.
The goal arrived late in the second half and a winning trade.
Two profitable trades on Friday
Spartak Moscow v Ruben Kazan
Russian Premier League
Kazan has been struggling away from home recently, so I was surprised to see the score was 0-0 at half time. In the first half, there were seven shots on target between the two teams, so the game seemed lively.
Spartak Moscow has not kept a clean sheet in their last 13 games, and Ruben Kazan games seem to be involved in games that produce over 2.5 goals. Surely there was a goal in this game? I opposed the current score.
Well, that didn't go to plan. Surprisingly neither side could score and the game finished 0-0. A losing trade to start the day.
Chelsea v Newcastle
English Premier League
I decided to get involved late in this game when I noticed Chelsea were still level, playing at home, to Newcastle. It was clear that Chelsea was on top in the match, pressing forward to score a winning goal, so I entered a trade, expecting a goal.
The goal arrived in the 73rd minute. Alonso was on the score sheet for Chelsea. A winning trade.
Leicester v Burnley
English Premier League.
This trade was my 100th since I started the SportsTraydor blog.
Late in the second half, the score was level at 1-1. I looked at the stats, as well as listening to the pundits on Sky Sports Soccer Saturday, and I felt another goal was coming. Leicester had 65% of the possession and 8 attempts on goal in the 2nd half. I apposed the current score, expecting at least one more goal before the final whistle.
Goal! Tielemans scored it for Leicester in the 74th minute. My 100th trade was a winning trade!
Bournemouth v Norwich
English Premier League
"This game has goals in it!" - according to the Sky Sports pundits.
While looking at the information available, I was also expecting at least a goal. Bournemouth has not kept a clean sheet in their last six games. Norwich hasn't had a clean sheet in their previous nine games. When I saw it was still 0-0 at half time, I decided to oppose the current score.
Well, that didn't work out. The game finished 0-0. I was annoyed I lost this trade, but I felt I profiled the game well. The stats and information I had available leaned towards a goal in this game. We work with probabilities in trading - but nothing is 100% guaranteed, so I have to take this one on the chin.
Ankaragucu v Besiktas
Turkish Super Lig
Oh, the outcome of this trade was annoying.
The team streaks presented facts such as Ankaragucu unable to keep a clean sheet in their last four games, games have been producing over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
At half time it was 0-0. Like with the Bournemouth v Norwich game, I felt there would be a goal in the second half.
After 74 mins Ankaragucu had a red card. Besiktas the pre-match odds on favourites had an extra man for the last 15 minutes of the game - but they couldn't score. The game finished 0-0, so I lost this trade.
This one hurt as it was my last trade on a Saturday. It also meant I ended Saturday with a negative P&L. Sometimes I consider finding more games to trade to make up for the loss, but I walked away from my laptop and made sure not to force any trades. I'm not saying being this disciplined was easy though!
Sydney FC v Wellington
It was an early start to my Sunday. While my kids were playing on their iPads and doing some drawing, and my wife was at work, I watched Sydney v Wellington on BT Sport.
Sydney was the pre-match favourites and leading 1-0 at half time, but Wellington has looked promising, and I could see them getting back into the game. I layed the Under 1.5 goals, expecting a goal.
As I walked back into the lounge, stepping over my sleeping dog (I have a Cockapoo) with a fresh cup of coffee in my hand, Wellington scored in the 69th minute just as I had predicted. A winning trade and an excellent way to start Sunday, after a negative day yesterday.
Manchester United v Liverpool
English Premier League.
After some family commitments at lunchtime, I was back home ready to watch the big game of the day. If I'm honest, I wasn't expecting to trade the game, but when I saw United were beating an in-form Liverpool side who usually score, I decided to oppose the current score.
The goal arrived late in the game. I reckon overall it was a goal Liverpool deserved. Man United was, without doubt, the better side in the first half, but Liverpool towards the end were improving, and in fact, they might have got a second near the end as United seemed nervous. My second winning trade of the day and my final trade of the week.
Looking at the P&L, it was a "green" week but to be honest; the numbers are not exactly flattering. I'm sticking to stakes between 1.0 and 1.5% of the bank (give or take) which might be why the returns have been low. I'm going to stay with it for October and then evaluate. Maybe I will increase the stakes, so they are between 2.0 and 2.5% of the bank instead.
The week started with a balance of £558.40.
P&L for the week +£14.50
The balance is now at £572.90. An ROI of 120% since 1-August-19.
120%! Not bad. I can't complain, although for some reason I feel like I'm leaving money on the table based on when I enter and exit a trade.
I didn't write a mid-week post due to the amount of trades I placed. This was mostly due to International football being played and other commitments outside of trading.
I'll start with the mid-week trades for the record.
Sunderland v Grimsby
Sunderland was losing 0-1 after 59 minutes, but I was expecting more goals. I entered the trade mid-way through the second half. The goal came in the 68th minute, and as a result, this was a winning trade. Sunderland went on to win the game 3-2 in the end.
Netherlands v N. Ireland
I watched this game on TV and was surprised the score was still 0-0 mid-way through the second half. Therefore I entered the market, expecting at least a goal before the final whistle. I was a little shocked it was N. Ireland who broke the deadlock, but I didn't care, as all I needed was a goal to win the trade. In the end, the Netherlands pulled it back to 3-1. This trade is an example of why I like to trade the goals market and not back or lay specific teams.
Only a couple of small wins during the week, but hey a win is a win right?
Czech Republic v England
I'm sure everyone knows what happened in this game. I decided to enter the market in the second half when the score was still 1-1. Of course, I wanted England to go on and win the match, but I thought the Czech's also had a chance to win it, especially with the way England have been playing recently. I, therefore, opposed the current score heading into the final stage of the match.
As we now know, the Czech Republic scored and won the game 2-1, and I won my trade.
Turkey v Albania
A game I shortlisted earlier in the day as a reminder to keep an eye on. During the second half, the score was still 0-0. I kept an eye on the stats to see if there was an angle for me to enter a trade. Turkey's recent home form looked good, and so I felt there would be a goal in the game. I entered a trade opposing the current scoreline late in the second half.
I had to wait until the very end for this trade to work out. A goal in the 90th minute! A winning trade and an excellent start to the weekend.
Portsmouth v Gillingham
OK, this was just a stupid trade. I admit to myself that I didn't follow my rules, and I rushed into this trade. I didn't look at my trading plan to confirm if this game met my criteria. I based it all on gut feeling, and as a result, it was a losing trade. I have to learn from this!
Liechtenstein v Armenia
Looking at the in-play stats, plus the recent form for both teams, I decided to back the draw in the final stages of this game. The score was 1-1, and neither side looked threatening in attack. A negative Risk: Reward, but I "felt" confident no further goal was coming. I guess like the earlier Portsmouth game I was moving away from my trading rules and although the game ended in my favour, finishing 1-1, it could be said I got away with winning this trade.
Huesca v Racing Santander
La Liga 2
A game I shortlisted earlier in the day. Huesca were the clear favourites with the market makers before the game. During the second half, I saw that Huesca was trailing 0-1 at home. After reviewing the in-play stats, I entered the market late in the second half, apposing the current scoreline.
As expected, Huesca did score, making it 1-1 and therefore a winning trade. It was close though, as the goal didn't come until the 96th minute! It was my only trade on Sunday and the final trade of the weekend.
I'm not a fan of trading international football, but I'll stick with it.
This weekend I've been entering trades into the market later than I have been doing previously. I may miss a few trades due to this, but I'm trying to find the right balance on when to enter and what provides the best value. That's the key word there - VALUE!
I started the week with £528.60
The current bank is now at £558.40 (+114% ROI since 1-August-19)
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.