It’s great listening and talking with other sports traders to understand how they trade, their mindset and what they look for when entering and exiting trades. Trading can be a lonely and isolating place, so I like to interact with like-minded people.
If you’re sports trading, I highly recommend following a few traders on social media (but do your due diligence) and start interacting with them. It’s great when you talk to genuine traders and not those who flood social media with profitable green screenshots and try to convince you that they never have a losing day.
Speaking of social media, I’m sure those who read this post are aware of my Twitter account. If you’re not familiar, its @SportsTraydor. Come and say hi!
The International football crept into the midweek, so once again I was limited on how many trades I entered and a reason I decided to write the one post this week to cover both the mid-week and weekend trades.
Here’s how it went.
Sweden v Faroe Islands
Euro 2020 Qualifier
My first mid-week trade. Sweden was clear favourites priced at 1.11 with the bookies. The Faroe Islands, not surprisingly were outsiders priced at 34’s. After analysing the match, I saw that Sweden has played four of the last five home matches that produced first-half goals.
I decided to enter the market midway through the first half and plan to exit for a profit if a goal arrives before half-time.
Sweden scored in the 29th minute to lead 1-0, so my only trade of the day was a win.
Antwerp v Gent
Two evenly matched teams in this game and looking at the form it appears there were goals in the first half in all of Antwerp’s last five home games. This was a good sign for me to enter the market earlier rather than later, but still looking for value.
I placed an order into the goals market, not taking the current asking price, looking for at least one goal to be scored before half-time.
Not long after my order was matched a goal was scored in the 21st minute. Yaremchuk scoring for Gent to take the lead 0-1. A winning trade. The score at half time ended 2-1, so the analysis and my thoughts on early goals in this game appeared to be correct.
Mid-week trading summary
Due to International football earlier in the week, I placed just two trades during the week. Both trades entered in the goals markets and exiting when a goal was scored.
I’m happy with how my pre-match analysis and match selection criteria have been going recently. I’m not naive and understand it’s a small sample size, so I need to take care of my methods entering the markets in the first half, compared to the usual second-half trading.
Shangdong Luneng v Chongquing Lifan
Chinese Super League
My first trade of the weekend. Shangdong were home favourites, priced around 1.22, and the away side priced at 11.00. Shandong sits in 4th and Chongquing in 7th.
With a coffee in my hand, looking at the fixtures and browsing the form, I saw that in 70% of Shandong’s games at home produced a goal or more in the first half. Looking at the more recent form, it’s four from 5, so 80%. Based on the facts, I expected an early goal and didn’t wish to wait until the second half to get involved.
I placed an order into the “overs” market before kick-off. The order was match around the 20th minute. If there was a goal, I’d come away with a winning trade.
The goal arrived after 34 minutes. Pelle getting on the score sheet for the home side. Before the goal arrived, the game was a bit of a stalemate with no chances on goal so I was pleased to see the goal.
I was contemplating on whether I should exit the trade due to the limited number of chances from either side. I’m glad I didn’t and stuck with my plan as this resulted in a winning trade.
Puszcza v Odra Opole
Polish Division 1
Odra Opole finds themselves bottom of the Polish 1st division travelling to Puscza who are not doing much better but in mid-table.
As I have been doing recently, I placed an order in the “overs” market, which was matched midway through the first half.
The goal arrived in the 25th minute, and as a result, it was a winning trade. I’m going to increase my stake to 2% of the current bank now.
Podbeskidzie v Chojnizcanka
Polish Division 1
Podbeskidzie in 3rd position at home against Chojnizcanka who are in an early relegation fight in 17th.
I placed an order expecting goals. The order was matched just after the 20-minute mark.
My first 0-0 at half time for some time and a losing trade. It just so happened to be when I increased my stakes to 2% of the bank. Typical.
Nordsjaelland v Randers
There have been goals before half time in 87% of Nordsjaelland’s home games and 75% in Randers away games, so I felt confident there would be an early goal
I placed an order, expecting goals, which was matched around the 25th minute.
It wasn’t to be and another loss. Typical that I have two back to back losses after I’ve increased my stakes to 2%.
Dordrecht v Telsar
Looking at the stats, 80% of the time there’s a goal or more in the first half when Dordrecht are playing at home. Compare that to 53% of games with a first half goal when Telsar plays way.
I decided to place an order, expecting at least a goal, which was matched around the 20th minute.
A goal arrived in the 25th min, so this worked out to be a winning trade. There was two more goals before half time, so three in total, but only one goal was enough for me.
Lech v Piast
After analysing the stats, I saw that in 80% of the time there’s a goal or more in the first half when Lech play at home. When Piast play away, 53% of the time there's a goal in the first half.
With the stats expecting a goal earlier rather than later, I decided to place an order in the "overs" market.
An order was placed and matched around 25 mins into the first half.
Well, I had to wait until the very end when Lech was awarded a penalty in the 45th minute. The half time whistle was blown by the referee as soon as the penalty was converted and a winning trade for me.
Pescara v Cremonese
Italian Serie B
4th plays 17th in this Serie B fixture. The pre-match stats expected a goal, so it was a game I decided to get involved in
I placed my order which was matched earlier than usual, around the 18th minute. The pre-match “overs” odds were high which I guess means the market wasn't expecting an early goal. I was now in the trade and looking for a goal.
Well, the pre-match odds were higher than usual for goals, and they were right. This game was 0-0 at half time, so I exited for a loss.
Five trades in total during a hectic Saturday. I had family commitments throughout the day, but I managed to find some time to put a few trades on between dropping the kids off at dance, pick up some items in town and watch a Christmas carol performance (yes, I know in November!)
Pordenone v Perugia
Italian Series B
First half trade, entering the goals market midway through the first half.
It never worked out though as there were no goals scored in the first half, so I exited with a loss.
Pordenone went on to win 3-0, so I was right in expecting goals, but they were scored too late for me.
Atalanta v Juventus
Italian Serie A
I was expecting Juventus to be clear favourites for this game but they were priced at 2.50 with some bookies. I looked at the recent form and expected goals.
I entered the goals market in the first half, but at half time it was still 0-0, so I exited the trade for my second loss of the day. Juventus won the game 1-3 away from home.
Weder Bremen v Schalke
After profiling this game, I thought there would be goals. I didn’t feel comfortable waiting until half time to get involved, so I entered during the first half.
I was correct to do so as a goal arrived in the 43rd minute, and as a result, I won my first trade of the day.
Brighton v Leicester City
The score was 0-0 at Half time. I decided to wait and see how the second half started before entering the goals market.
I placed an order, that was matched around the 55th minute.
The goal arrived in the 64th minute, Leicester taking the lead on a wet and miserable afternoon, which was enough for me to make a profit from this trade.
Two win, two losses so far today.
Swansea v Millwall
Like with the Brighton v Leicester City game, I entered the goal market in the second half. The score was 0-0, but I felt a goal was coming. I placed an order that was match around 60 minutes into the game.
I didn’t have to wait long, as Millwall scored in the 65th minute, and so I walked away with a profit from this trade.
I placed five trades on Saturday. Three wins and two losses.
On Sunday, I placed another five trades. This is how it went.
Copenhagen v Hobro
Denmark Super liga.
Copenhagen were clear favourites priced at 1.25 and Hobro playing away were at 11.00. I wasn’t expecting this to be goalless in the first half, so I entered a trade in the “overs” market during the first half.
The goal arrived in the 31st minute, but surprisingly it was the outsiders who scored after they won a penalty that they missed, but then put the ball past the goalkeeper after he made the penalty save.
I entered a second trade in this match. I felt that Copenhagen would pull this back to make it 1-1. I, therefore, opposed Hobro.
Hobro were still winning as the match entered the last ten minutes. Suddenly Copenhagen scores two goals in two minutes and go on to win the game 2-1. A second winning trade for me between these two sides.
Asteras v Volos
Greece Super League
A losing trade. I expected goals, but the first half finished 0-0, and so I exited for a loss. Move onto the next trade. It happens.
CSKA Moscow v Sovetov
Russian Premier League
I expected goals early on in this match. It didn’t go my way, as the score was 0-0 at half time. I exited the trade for a loss.
I looked at the stats and I felt there was going to be a goal, so I placed an order during the second half which was matched around the 56th minute.
It turned out to be the right decision as the goal arrived in the 75th minute, and as a result, it was a winning trade.
Quite a few trades recorded this weekend. Overall, you’ll see below its was a profitable week.
It’s strange as it didn’t feel like a profitable week on a daily basis, so it shows that I need to look at my results weekly or even over a month to get an accurate idea of how my trading is going. There’s a lot of variance in football trading.
This coming week will be the last trading week of November. I’m interested to see how it will turn out and what my monthly P&L will look.
I’m not expecting too much as I missed a week of trading due to the Children in Need mini-challenge, which was well worth it. There’s also been International football which reduces the number of trades being placed. We’ll see, though.
The balance on Monday was £613.28
Balance is now £654.27 (+151% ROI since 1-August-19)
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.