During an International football week, I’m limited on how often I trade the markets using my trading methods. There’s no form to analyse, and it’s difficult to know how motivated the players or coaches will be.
Instead of sitting on my hands, I use these times as a chance to review my trading plan, read articles and watch video’s produced by other sports and financial traders. Best of all is that I spend more time with my family and friends, especially on a Saturday afternoon.
Last week I traded the markets to generate a profit for Children In Need. I used this opportunity to be more aggressive in my match selections due to the time limit I set myself.
One of the methods was to trade during the first half, which worked out well, but at the same time, I’m conscious it was a small sample size. It’s a style of football trading I want to improve, as mentioned in my final post in October.
To help compare my first-half trade results in contrast to my second half trades I’ve spent this week updating my Excel tracking sheet to include additional data. I will then filter this data for further analysis.
I’ll be entering my first half trades using a mixture of form and pre-match analysis although I won’t necessarily open a trade from kick-off.
Instead, I’ll likely wait for the match to begin, so the markets odds increase or decrease in my favour for more value. I might miss out on some potential wins if there’s an early goal, but it’s the same risk with my current second-half trading methods as I prefer to see how the second half starts before entering the markets.
This weekend I entered the Betfair markets just three times, all within the first half. Quality over quantity right? This is how it went.
Croatia v Slovakia
Euro 2020 Qualifier
The home side Croatia was priced at 1.44 by the bookmakers. The visitors, Slovakia were priced at 8.00.
I expected goals between these two teams but I had to decide whether to enter the market in the first half or wait until half time.
Croatia has been involved in matches that produced a goal in the first half in 4 of their last 5 home games. The one game that was 0-0 at half time was against Spain back in 2018.
I decided to enter the market during the first half and exit if there was a goal.
There was a goal in the first half but surprising to me it was scored by the away side Slovakia. Bozenik scored in the 32nd minute against the run of play. I was happy with the result and the winning trade.
Croatia won the game 3-1 with Slovakia having a player sent off in the second half.
Germany v Belarus
Euro 2020 Qualifier
If I’m honest, I didn’t look at the pre-match form and analyse the stats before the game. I was sure this match would produce goals and in particular at least one in the first half.
The goal markets were priced very low as 99.9% of traders were expecting a goal rush. I waited until later in the first half for the price to increase and enter the goals market. I wasn’t sure if I would get into the market as Germany were likely to score sooner rather than later.
I was surprised the score stayed 0-0 for so long, but I’m glad it did as this allowed me to get in the market at a better price.
Germany had 71% of possession and 23 goal attempts when they finally took the lead in the 41st minute. This late first-half goal was enough for me to win my second trade of the day.
Kosovo v England
Euro 2020 Qualifier
Harry Kane is on fire (on the International stage, not domestically) and the England team scored seven goals during the week. The game between these two nations in Southampton (which I attended in person) produced plenty of goals, and I was confident this game would be no different.
My only concern was England have now qualified for the Euro 2020 finals and what would their mindset be? The starting line up included Kane and Sterling which was the deciding factor for me to enter the markets.
I was expecting goals but concerned I might miss out on this trade if I waited until the second half.
I entered the trade around 25 minutes into the game when the goals market was offering value. I was aware that if there was an early goal, it was one of those I’d have to take on the chin and miss.
About seven minutes after entering the trade, I raised a fist in celebration as Harry Winks scores his first goal for England, and I win the trade.
England went on to win the game 4-0 and now wait to see who they face in the tournament next year.
On the subject of the Euro 2020 tournament. Who’s in favour of the games being played across multiple cities rather than one nation hosting the finals? I’d rather see one nation host it.
Three wins from three trades this weekend and all of the profits came from entering the market in the first half. It’s a small sample size, but if goals are likely to come earlier in the match, I’m going to see if there’s an opportunity for me to enter a trade in the first half.
I’ll still wait for the price to offer value which might see me miss out on some potential winning trades, but I believe, for the long term, it’s essential to wait until the price is right. (Hold on, who remembers the game show “The Price is Right”?)
The starting balance before the weekend was £589.76.
Total weekend P&L +£23.52
The balance now stands at £613.28. That’s +135% ROI since the 1st August 2019.
I’m looking forward to trade the domestic leagues again.
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.