This week I set a target to use a more in-depth examination in the team's recent form and stats before adding them to my shortlist of matches to trade. I'm using this approach to help me find opportunities to enter the markets earlier.
If I enter the markets earlier in the game, it's likely to be after 10+ minutes has been played to see how active or sluggish the game starts.
I've been discussing some ideas on entry and exit times with a couple of other traders this week, which has been enjoyable. As I mentioned in my last blog post, it's good to share ideas with others.
NEC Nijmegen v Jong Utrecht
Dutch Eerste Divisie
I use three or four sources of information when looking at pre-match stats. The majority of them expected goals in this game.
NEC were odds-on favourites priced at 1.33, so I was surprised to see it was 0-0 approaching the 70th minute.
I looked at “Flashscore”, and it seemed NEC were on top. I loaded up a stream on Betfair to observe the game myself and soon after I decided to enter the market, opposing the current score.
Time ticked by, and in the end, it resulted in a losing trade. The final result was 0-0. You can't win them all!
CSA v Fluminense
Brazil Serie A
It was getting late, but while I was preparing for tomorrow's games, I noticed this match was about to start in Brazil. Both teams have "not" scored many goals in the first half, and I considered entering the first half goals market.
While I put the kettle on to make myself a “decaf” cup of tea (as it was late), I decided to back “Under 1.5 FHG”, with the plan to cash out for a small loss if there was an early goal.
After 30 minutes the game was dull, with minimal chances for either side. I decided to remove the liability in case of two late goals before half-time. I now had a “risk-free” trade.
It worked out well as the half-time score was 0-0, so a winning trade.
Fluminense went on to win the game 0-1. It appeared I profiled this game accurately - it must have been the decaf tea.
Ipswich v Wycombe
English League 1
Ipswich were favourites priced at 2.00.
After analysing the pre-match stats, I concluded there would be early goals between these two sides and entered the market in the first half.
The first half ended 0-0, so I stuck to my rules and exited the position with a loss. The final result was 0-0, so I accepted I profiled this match incorrectly. Pre-match stats won't always predict what happens in the next game and I have to accept the variance when trading football.
Grimsby v Cheltenham
English League 2
For this trade, I tried something new. OK, It’s not new; it’s something I haven’t done for some time. I decided to set up Bet Angel to automate this trade. One of the challenges I face is the emotional side of trading.
After reading a lot of trading books, it seems traders hint at using bots to take the emotion away from it all.
I profiled this match between two evenly rated teams, and therefore I was expecting a tight game with a limited number of goals. I decided to back the "unders" market — not something I often do.
I loaded the details into Bet Angel, configured my entry and exit rules and sat in my lounge to watch the Tottenham v Olympiakos game on TV.
When I returned to my laptop, it was pleasing to see it was a winning trade. At half-time, I instructed the bot to cash out for a profit if it was 0-0.
The game went on to finish 0-0.
Hull v Preston
Like with the trade yesterday, I expected this game to make a slow start. I placed my trade backing the "unders" goal market. I established an exit price if I felt the game was looking active.
As it turned out, the game did begin quicker than I anticipated, and the "under" goals market was going up in price and not reducing with the time decay. Witnessing this, I decided to take action and get out of this trade.
At times like this, I have to be flexible and manage my trades and not just sit on my hands doing nothing. It's why we trade and not bet.
This trade returned a minimal profit — nothing too exciting.
West Brom v Bristol City
I spent the morning doing my analysis, and for me, this game was ticking all of the boxes for a lively game, especially for the odds-on favourites West Brom.
I decided to enter the “overs” goal market when the match went in-play.
It went according to plan. West Brom took an early lead, so I was in profit. I removed the liability from the trade and let it run for a bit longer before cashing out.
West Brom scored a second goal in the first half, resulting in a winning trade.
Liverpool v Napoli
Champions League Group Stage
I attached this match to my shortlist to see if I could open a position in the second half.
At half time Napoli, priced at 7.50 before the game, was leading 0-1 at Anfield. I felt confident that Liverpool would get back into this game, so I layed the “under” goal market, needing the one goal.
The goal was scored in the 65th minute, so I removed the liability from my open position. If there were a second goal, it would be a profitable trade.
I felt relaxed as I knew the worst-case scenario is that I make nothing, but potentially a healthy Risk: Reward profit.
It wasn’t to be as the match finished 1-1. I felt OK with this as I believe more times than not, I would have traded the same way based on this scenario. I’d rather have a break-even trade than a red, losing trade.
(Note - It was a small loss by the time my order was matched while exiting the trade, but it was only pennies as you’ll see in the summary below.)
AZ Alkmaar v Partizan Belgrade
Europa League Group Stage
After witnessing Man United lose earlier in the day, the door was open for AZ to top their group if they beat Partizan. When I noticed they were 0-2 down at half-time, I believed they would pull a goal back and get back into the game.
During the second half, I opened a position in the goals market, expecting at least a goal so I can remove my liability but also push on for a second goal to win this trade. I set myself a stop loss should there be no further goals.
As the game advanced, Partizan looked the better team and could have made it 3-0, but that was OK as all I needed was at least a goal from either side. AZ hit the bar, the Betfair “Suspended” notice appeared, but it wasn’t to be. The price had hit my Stop-Loss, so I stayed true to my trading rules and exited for a loss.
Typically, AZ pulled the game back level, scoring two late goals in the 88th and 92nd minute. I expected this, but unfortunatly for me it happened too late in the game to make a profit.
Lazio v CFR Cluj
Europa League Group Stage
I expected to see some early goals between these two sides. Looking at Lazio’s last four or five home games, there’s been at least two goals in the first half. I added this to my notes and decided to trade the first half goals market.
The first goal arrived midway through the first half, which allowed me to remove my liability to create a "risk-free" situation and cheer on the teams on for a second goal.
Half-time finished 1-0, so it was a break-even trade. No loss, but no win either.
Lazio kept their lead and won the game 1-0.
Sevilla v Qarabag
Europa League Group Stage
(Do we call them Sevilla or Seville? They are from Seville, but I’m reading online that it’s spelt Sevilla, with an “a” at the end.)
Unlike the Lazio game, I wasn’t expecting early goals in this match based on Sevilla’s previous form at home. I decided to wait until the second half.
As anticipated the score was 0-0 at half-time. Sevilla, who were odds on favourites priced at 1.36, playing at home was expected to win. They had plenty of possession in the first half. I decided to enter the goals market, looking for a goal. I was confident it wouldn’t end 0-0.
I didn’t have to wait long. Sevilla scored in the 61st minute, and as a result, I won my first trade of the day.
Overall, I placed three trades on Thursday. One loss, One break-even, and finally one winning trade.
The week started with £654.27.
The balance is now £651 (+150% ROI since I started in August)
Well, not the best of weeks. A negative return. I'm hoping the final weekend of November will be profitable and I hit the monthly targets I've set myself.
Stay positive green everyone!
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.