November ends. Christmas is nearly here. My kids are excited now the decorations are up.
I'll be honest; I love this time of the year. Time off work to spend with the family, eating too many mince pies, drinking wine, playing board games and likely unwrapping new socks and seven deodorant and shower gel gift boxes from the family (who didn't know what else to get you!)
With regards to the trading, I wasn't sure what to expect before calculating the total P&L. I expected my number of trades to be lower due to the time I took out to trade for Children In Need and the International football schedule. I would be happy if I made 10-15% return on balance though.
Before I worked it all out, I had a couple of days left to trade before December arrived. This is how Friday and Saturday went.
I won't add Sunday's results, as this post is to document how my trading concluded in November.
Antwerp v Mechelen
Belgium Pro League
I profiled this match, expecting the game to start lively and either side to score a goal before half-time. Based on this, I entered the market to Lay "Under 1.5 first-half goals". If there were goals within a certain amount of time, then I'd look to secure some profits.
It didn't work out. I thought I was going to earn a profit at the end of the first half, but Antwerp missed a penalty in the 45th minute. A losing trade.
I kept this match open on the monitor and still believed there was going to be a goal in the game. The score was still 0-0 midway through the second half, so I opposed the current score.
It worked out well. As expected, there was a goal in the 75th minute for the home side. Antwerp went on to win the game 1-0.
Marseille v Brest
French Ligue 1
I usually prefer trading the goals markets, but for this one, I decided to back Marseille “in play”.
At half-time, the score was still 0-0, but Marseille had 64% of possession and 13 attempts at goal versus Brest who had just the one attempt all half.
I entered the market because I believed Marseille would at least take the lead, if not win the game.
Marseille took the lead after 56 minutes, so I was able to secure in a profit.
Schalke v Union Berlin
It was midway through the second half, and both teams were having plenty of attempts on goal. The score was 1-1 and appeared to me; it wouldn’t end as a draw. A goal was coming.
I decided to oppose the current score, expecting a winner from either side. I managed to get a lay price below evens, so my risk to reward was positive.
The goal arrived late in the match. Serdar scored for Schalke in the 86th minute, and as a result, I locked in a healthy profit, as will be shown in summary below.
Automate: First Half goals market
On Friday evening and Saturday morning, I continued testing some Bet Angel bots. As mentioned previously, it’s something I used to do but didn’t give it much of a chance.
After speaking with fellow traders over the past few days and weeks, I want to study this style of trading again. I like the idea to automate my trading, if and when possible, to remove the emotions from my decisions.
I don’t plan to use it all the time, and even if I wanted to, I don’t think I can automate all of my trading methods, due to various situations in a match.
Today I set up the bot to trade the first half goals market, in matches, I was expecting a slow start and ideally no goals. If there were an early goal, I’d either break even or maybe return a small win (or loss).
I spent the morning selecting the games and put them into Bet Angel. I armed the bot and let it run. Here’s how they went.
I was satisfied with the results when I reviewed them later in the day. Three trades and three wins. A small sample size, but it’s a good start.
Moreirense v Aves
A game I added to my shortlist to see if I could enter the market in-play. Moreirense were at home and favourites with the bookies and market makers. I was expected to get a result from this game.
Aves took an early lead in the 5th minute. As soon as the market settled, I layed Aves, as I was certain Moreirense would get back into this game.
In the 13th minute, Aves had a man sent off. As a result, the odds moved in my favour before a goal was scored. I had to think fast here. I could stay in the trade until a goal is scored, or manage the open position to lock in some profits. I was conscious of the fact the ten men of Aves might put on a defensive display and frustrate the home side.
I decided to manage the position so I'd get something out of the trade.
Moreirense scored two goals in the first half to lead 2-1 at half-time. They went on to win the game 3-2 — a winning trade.
Piast Gliwice v Slask Wroclaw
Like with the Moreirense v Aves trade, I paused to see how I could trade this match in play.
When Slask took the lead in the second half, I checked the stats to see if there was any indication Piast, being at home, had a chance to get back into the game. In the first half, they had 54% possession, ten attempts on goal compared to Slask’s 2 efforts. I felt the home side could get back into this game, so I layed Slask.
Well, it wasn’t to be. Slask went and scored a second goal in the 76th minute. I decided to exit for a loss and move on.
In the end, Slask scored another goal and won the game 0-3 away from home.
Mallorca v Real Betis
Spanish La Liga
I had this game marked as a home win. When I saw Betis take the lead in the 7th minute, I felt there was plenty of time for Mallorca to get back into it. I opposed Betis for a price I felt offered value.
When Betis took a 0-2 lead after 33 minutes, I had to bite my lip, take the pain, and exit for a loss. I stuck to my plan, but inside I was tempted to keep it running longer as there was still 60 minutes left to play.
In the end, Mallorca scored but lost 1-2 at home. Another loss for me today.
Nice v Angers
French Ligue 1
Nice were favourites playing at home. They've lost one game at home in the league in their last five matches. Angers, on the other hand, have been poor away from home recently. Without a win away from home in their previous five games, one of those was in the cup.
When I noticed Angers take the lead after 22 minutes, I opposed them, expecting Nice to get back into the game.
I was accurate to do so. Nice made it 1-1 in the 39th minute. I decided to secure some profits and was comfortable knowing I won't lose anything in this trade.
As I was suspecting, and why I entered the trade as I did, Nice won the match 3-1.
Last week I posted a negative return. I'm pleased I had more favourable returns to finish November.
Here's the P&L for Friday and Saturday's trades.
Starting balance from the mid-week trading was £651.
Friday & Saturday P&L +£28.95
The balance at the end of November is £679.95 (+161% ROI since 1-August-19)
I'm pleased with how Friday and Saturday went. It's nice to see a green P&L, unlike a red one I had mid-week.
What were my returns in November? Have I made a 10-15% return this month? I've put the details over in the monthly report section.
Now let's see how December works out and if I can finish the year (and decade!) in style?
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.