Friday 2nd August 2019
The opening weekend of the English football leagues started in style. On Friday evening I sat down and watched newly promoted, Luton host Jonathan Woodgates Middlesbrough. What a game it was, ending 3-3. I didn't trade it as the match didn't meet my criteria, but a thoroughly enjoyable game to watch.
This weekend was the first set of trades on record since creating this blog.
Auxerre v Le Mans
French Ligue 2
My first trade was on Friday evening. A match from the French Ligue 2 between Auxerre and Le Mans. Auxerre were odds on at 1.66. Le Mans, playing away was at odds of 5.50.
Because it's early in the season, there wasn't much in the way of form to look at, so I decided to wait until half-time to get an idea of how the game played out.
The match was level at half-time. Auxerre had 59% possession with 8 shots vs Le Mans 4 chances. The fact it was still level was a little surprising. I was slightly confident Auxerre would get a goal in the second half, and the match criteria met the rules I have in my trading plan; therefore, I backed them to win in the 2nd half.
A goal for Auxerre arrived in the 75th minute, putting them 1-0 up. As the markets settled, I cashed out for a profit, securing a good start to the weekend of trading sport. The game ended 2-0
One thing I will say is at half-time I was considering how much my stake should be. In my opening post, I worked out I would use £25 stakes, but for this Auxerre trade, I decided to use a smaller stake because the season is just underway, and there's a lack of current form.
Saturday 3rd August 2019
Brentford v Birmingham
Like with my trade between Auxerre and Le Mans, I reduced the size of my stake as it's the first game of the season. Brentford were priced slightly odds on at 1.95. Birmingham was at odds of 4.33.
At half time Birmingham was winning 0-1. After looking at the stats, I was confident that Brentford, at home, would pull a goal back.
I studied my trading plan and decided that for this game and situation, I would oppose Birmingham and layed them at odds of 2.18. I was quietly confident that Brentford would score in the second half.
Midway through the second half, somehow against all the attacking pressure from Brentford, Birmingham was still leading. Once more, I referred to my trading plan and decided with the stats strongly in Brentford's favour; I would lay Birmingham again, at reduced odds. I just needed Brentford to pull a goal back.
As it turned out, Birmingham held onto the lead and finished winning the game 0-1 away from home. Oh well, it was a losing trade. It happens.
Looking back at the stats and reviewing how I traded this game, I was irritated it wasn't a successful trade, but at the same time, I was pleased I stuck to my rules. It just wasn't meant to be.
Hibs v St. Mirren.
Scottish Premier League
This trade was a struggle. Betfair announced before this weekend that some of their games were going to be unmanaged. This game was one of them. As a result, the odds were all over the place, and it felt erratic.
Hibs were odds on favourites at 1.44 with St. Mirren clear outsiders with odds at 8.00. At half-time, unexpectedly the score was 0-0. I reviewed the stats and decided to back Hibs at 1.79 to win in the second half.
I had to sweat on this one. Approaching the last 10 minutes of the game, it was still level. I was thinking of cashing out for a loss, but my rules for this particular scenario and the strategy I was applying meant I would stay in this trade until the end. Thankfully I stuck to my rules as Hibs took the lead in the 85th minute. I cashed out for a win.
Odd v Lillestrom
This match was to be my final trade of the weekend because I was busy with the family on Sunday. You'll recall in my opening post that I was now going to avoid juggling family commitments and trading sport at the same time.
The season has been underway for a while in Norway, so I entered this trade with my full stake. After some research, I decided to back Odd who were odds on favourite to win at home vs Lillestrom. Odd was sitting 3rd in their league, and the recent form suggested to me they should win this. Lillestrom hasn't been great away from home. I got matched at odds of 1.64 with half my stake from the start.
At half-time, the game was still 0-0. I considered adding more into the market as I was confident Odd would take the lead in the second half, but my trading plan revealed that the setup wasn't there to get in at this time.
Lillestrom took the lead in 52nd minute. Arrgh I was gutted. I was starting to think OK, maybe this trade won't work out for me. I looked at the stats and thought Odd could still get a goal in this game and if it's earlier enough maybe even turn it around and win. If they got the goal, the odds would likely come back in, and I may be in a position to still make a profit. With this scenario, I re-entered the market again and backed Odd at higher odds of 4.60.
Odd equalised in the 65th minute, making it 1-1. I decided at this time to reduce my liability but not cash out yet as I felt, according to the stats, Odd might nick a win here. I was right on this occasion. Odd scored and took the lead in the 81st minute. They went on to win 2-1, and it worked out to be successful trade for me.
The first weekend of capturing my trades in this blog was overall a success. 3 of the 4 trades made a profit.
Starting Bank: £260
What have I learned from trading sport this weekend?
I need to be wary of games that are not actively managed by Betfair. The market and movement of prices made it a challenge.
Trading two active matches at a time is likely to be my limit. Any more than two games, I feel I would get overwhelmed. Maybe I will be OK trading three or more games at a time in the coming weeks, but let me say managing the Brentford and the Hibs game at the same time this weekend kept me on my toes.
"Trading sports online is to back (in favour) a team or individual and then lay (oppose) at a lower price (odds) for a profit before the sporting event finishes. Alternatively lay (oppose) a sports team or individual and then back at a higher price (odds) for a profit." - SportsTraydor.